THAKSIN LOYALIST SEES LIGHT AT THE END OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005565

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM MOPS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: THAKSIN LOYALIST SEES LIGHT AT THE END OF THE
TUNNEL


Classified By: DCM Alex Arvizu, reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former House of Representatives Speaker Bhokin
Bhalakula claimed the upcoming legislative election would
reaffirm majority support for Thai Rak Thai (TRT),although
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra likely would not seek to
remain as Prime Minister. In a September 8 lunch with the
Ambassador, Bhokin -- a Deputy Leader of TRT rumored as a
potential successor to Thaksin -- claimed the King also
wanted elections as soon as possible and would refrain from
undemocratic political intervention. Upcoming elections
would further deflate the challenge from Thaksin's opponents,
and an upcoming reshuffle of top military, police, and civil
service positions would ensure the complete loyalty to the
administration of state bureaucracies and the security
forces. End Summary.

OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS
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2. (C) In a September 8 lunch at the Ambassador's residence,
former House of Representatives Speaker Bhokin Bhalakula
expressed optimism about upcoming legislative elections. The
northern and northeastern regions of Thailand -- which
together accounted for a majority of the constituency-based
seats in the House -- remained solidly pro-TRT, he asserted.
Reviewing the background behind TRT's populist policies,
Bhokin noted TRT would continue the programs that had
generated enthusiasm among the lower and middle class; future
government grants under the small, medium, and large-scale
(SML) village fund program would increase by at least 50
percent. Other political parties could not compete with
TRT's proven approach of delivering benefits. Rival Democrat
Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was too young to challenge TRT
effectively; Abhisit knew only how to criticize, and he did
so in a long-winded manner that most Thai found unappealing,
according to Bhokin.

THE KING'S POSITION
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3. (C) Bhokin said the King wanted elections as soon as
possible, highlighting that the King had quickly signed the
Royal Decree (issued on September 6) calling for an
extraordinary session of the Senate (September 8-10) to
select Election Commission members. Prior to receiving the
decree for approval, Bhokin related, the King had signaled
his eagerness by asking unspecified persons about the
decree's disposition. The King respected democracy and
viewed elections as a source of legitimacy; he would continue
to refuse to take drastic steps affecting political
processes. However, the King did not want to speak out
publicly on this matter, according to Bhokin, because his
words often created controversy as various sides offered
rival interpretations.

SONDHI WENT TOO FAR, PEOPLE ARE WEARY
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4. (C) Thaksin was a victim of his own success, Bhokin
lamented. Democrat Party leaders had come to realize that it
would take at least 15 years before they could hope to regain
power through elections. Meanwhile, the armed forces had
become split, partly because soldiers benefiting from illegal
activities, such as the drug trade, had suffered under TRT's
policies. And academics found their status diminished under
Thaksin, as TRT had sufficient human resources that the party
did not need to rely on ivory tower experts. It became easy
for those upset with Thaksin to generate negative publicity,
as they could easily pay off journalists to write negative
stories.


5. (C) Media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul proved able to unite
disgruntled members of the elite. Bhokin noted Sondhi had
successfully installed various associates in key government
positions, but his influence began to wane; the final blow
pushing Sondhi into opposition was the dismissal of crony
Viroj Nualkhair from his position as CEO of state-owned Krung
Thai Bank. However, although Sondhi benefited from the
support of royalist oligarchs, he had gone too far in
projecting himself as a representative of the King's
interests. The public did not appreciate Sondhi's approach,
and it led to diminished participation in the rallies of

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Sondhi's People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). In a recent
survey (NFI),60 percent of respondents blamed the PAD for
the current turmoil, Bhokin claimed, and he predicted further
tapering off of PAD support after the upcoming election's
reaffirmation of TRT's majority support.

RESHUFFLE
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6. (C) Bhokin predicted an upcoming reshuffle of top
military, police, and civil service positions would ensure
that government and security forces officials would "totally
obey" the administration. Comparing the government to a
ship, Bhokin said there currently were some holes in the
hull, but after the election, it would be smooth sailing.
The King would endorse the reshuffle plan as received from
the government, Bhokin said, noting parenthetically that, if
the King did not, "the whole country will blow up."

THAKSIN TO STEP DOWN
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7. (C) The Ambassador asked whether Thaksin might try to
return as Prime Minister after the next election. Bhokin
believed Thaksin had already made a decision not to do so,
irrespective of the election results. Citing Thaksin's early
April audience with the King, Bhokin said Thaksin would
likely opt not to be Prime Minister, in order to lessen the
degree of tension in the country. Bhokin observed that
Thaksin nevertheless wanted to remain TRT Party Leader,
claiming Thaksin was motivated not by a desire to protect
himself and his assets, but rather by patriotism and his
longstanding interest in politics.

MORE ON PALACE INFLUENCE
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8. (C) When the Ambassador asked about the wisdom of
Thaksin's decision to dissolve the parliament in February,
Bhokin replied that Thaksin had received advice to do so from
Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda as well as
then-Cabinet Secretary Borwornsak Uwanno. Bhokin then
confided that Thaksin had discussed the matter directly with
the King; when Thaksin had presented various alternatives to
resolve growing political tension, the King had said it would
be better to dissolve the parliament.


9. (C) The Ambassador also asked about the June resignations
of Borwornsak and then-Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu
Krea-ngam. Bhokin claimed that the two came under pressure
from an individual named Meechai, who was close to Prem and
presumably reflected Palace views. (We presume the reference
was to law professor Meechai Ruchupan, a former cabinet
minister in Prem's administration.)

COMMENT
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10. (C) Bhokin made a persuasive but hardly unbiased case
that TRT has reason for optimism as elections approach. His
claim that Thaksin is inclined not to remain as Prime
Minister tracks with a relatively common perception among the
political class, although we noted Bhokin stopped short of
offering categorical assurance on this point. We believe
Thaksin has not yet made a firm decision on this matter.

BOYCE