FORMER PRIME MINISTER PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL TAKE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005536 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: FORMER PRIME MINISTER PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL TAKE A BREAK REF: BANGKOK 5463 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister Banharn Silpha-Archa told the Ambassador that Thaksin would "take a break" from politics after the election, and that things could return to normal after that. However, he also admitted that the Thai political scene was extremely hard to predict now. Banharn was concerned about the deep divisions in Thai society and about the tensions between PM Thaksin and the privy council. Although Banharn's Chart Thai is a small party, Banharn's stature and political savvy make him a player in the current political crisis. End Summary ¶2. (C) Ambassador met September 6 with Banharn Silpha-Archa, former Prime Minister and current head of the Chart Thai party. Banharn has positioned himself as a peacemaker/middleman between Prime Minister Thaksin and the hard-line opposition Democrats. Although his Chart Thai is a small party that won only 25 seats in the 2005 election, Banharn's name sometimes comes up as possible compromise Prime Minister if Thaksin steps down. Although that is unlikely, his stature as a former PM, his control of what may be an important block of votes in a more closely divided Parliament, and his political survival skills make him a player in the current political crisis. ¶3. (C) Banharn said that Thaksin had told him he would "take a break" after the elections. The Ambassador said that Thaksin had said the same to him. However, the Ambassador noted that Thaksin had many people telling him to fight on. Whenever he went to his strongholds in the North and Northeast, he was met by crowds of supporters. He wondered whether Thaksin might be persuaded by his followers to hang on. Banharn agreed that Thaksin's close advisors gave him bad advice sometimes. For example, right after Thaksin dissolved the Parliament, the opposition parties had offered to participate in the elections if Thaksin would agree to make certain modest commitments on the political reform process. If Thaksin had only agreed to those conditions, there would have been no election boycott. In the end, however, Banharn reiterated that he believed Thaksin would take a break, and probably plan to return to political life after a few years. Banharn had recommended that Thaksin appoint caretaker Commerce Minister Somkid as prime minister. Banharn thought that the election was likely to take place in November. If Thaksin announces his "break" right after the elections, Banharn thought that things would return to normal. However, Banharn agreed that it was very difficult to see the future of Thai politics clearly right now. ¶4. (C) Banharn lamented the state of Thai society. He echoed the widespread opinion that Thailand was "more divided than ever." He said that the 1997 Constitution was good, but the problem was with the officials enforcing it. He pointed to the example of other countries, such as South Korea, where officials took responsibility by resigning when things went seriously wrong. In Thailand, politicians will not take responsibility like that. This is part of the reason why TRT stays together; he said that Thaksin also used money to keep TRT "doves" from resigning. ¶5. (C) Banharn said that Thaksin had agreed to run a different kind of campaign this time, spreading around less money and not making inappropriate use of states funds/power. Banharn said he believed Thaksin would keep his word, but this was the "last time" Banharn would believe Thaksin if he reneged on his pledge. He echoed complaints about Thaksin saying all the right things and then doing whatever he wants. Banharn said that TRT would have less money this time anyway, so would not be able to spend as lavishly. Banharn noted the difficult relationship between Thaksin and the Palace. The Ambassador asked whether Thaksin understood that the rural population voted for Thai Rak Thai, but they loved the King; if they were forced to chose, they'd side with the King. Banharn said that Thaksin understood this, but he had advisors who wanted to undermine the role of the royal family, particularly among the "October people" (former student activists and communists) some of whom are now very close to Thaksin. Thaksin also believes that members of the Privy Council and other officials close to the King take actions on their own initiative to undermine Thaksin, without the King's support. Banharn emphasized that he had told Thaksin this was just not so. BANGKOK 00005536 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Comment: Banharn is a real political veteran, and is rather more sanguine about the current political crisis than many of our contacts. Banharn's several four-eyes meetings with Thaksin have earned him some criticism for consorting with the enemy, but he is likely to keep working the middle ground in this polarized political landscape -- both for the good of country and in the interests of his own little party. End comment. BOYCE