FORMER PRIME MINISTER PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL TAKE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005536

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: FORMER PRIME MINISTER PREDICTS THAKSIN WILL TAKE A
BREAK

REF: BANGKOK 5463

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister Banharn Silpha-Archa
told the Ambassador that Thaksin would "take a break" from
politics after the election, and that things could return to
normal after that. However, he also admitted that the Thai
political scene was extremely hard to predict now. Banharn
was concerned about the deep divisions in Thai society and
about the tensions between PM Thaksin and the privy council.
Although Banharn's Chart Thai is a small party, Banharn's
stature and political savvy make him a player in the current
political crisis. End Summary


2. (C) Ambassador met September 6 with Banharn Silpha-Archa,
former Prime Minister and current head of the Chart Thai
party. Banharn has positioned himself as a
peacemaker/middleman between Prime Minister Thaksin and the
hard-line opposition Democrats. Although his Chart Thai is a
small party that won only 25 seats in the 2005 election,
Banharn's name sometimes comes up as possible compromise
Prime Minister if Thaksin steps down. Although that is
unlikely, his stature as a former PM, his control of what may
be an important block of votes in a more closely divided
Parliament, and his political survival skills make him a
player in the current political crisis.


3. (C) Banharn said that Thaksin had told him he would "take
a break" after the elections. The Ambassador said that
Thaksin had said the same to him. However, the Ambassador
noted that Thaksin had many people telling him to fight on.
Whenever he went to his strongholds in the North and
Northeast, he was met by crowds of supporters. He wondered
whether Thaksin might be persuaded by his followers to hang
on. Banharn agreed that Thaksin's close advisors gave him bad
advice sometimes. For example, right after Thaksin dissolved
the Parliament, the opposition parties had offered to
participate in the elections if Thaksin would agree to make
certain modest commitments on the political reform process.
If Thaksin had only agreed to those conditions, there would
have been no election boycott. In the end, however, Banharn
reiterated that he believed Thaksin would take a break, and
probably plan to return to political life after a few years.
Banharn had recommended that Thaksin appoint caretaker
Commerce Minister Somkid as prime minister. Banharn thought
that the election was likely to take place in November. If
Thaksin announces his "break" right after the elections,
Banharn thought that things would return to normal. However,
Banharn agreed that it was very difficult to see the future
of Thai politics clearly right now.


4. (C) Banharn lamented the state of Thai society. He
echoed the widespread opinion that Thailand was "more divided
than ever." He said that the 1997 Constitution was good, but
the problem was with the officials enforcing it. He pointed
to the example of other countries, such as South Korea, where
officials took responsibility by resigning when things went
seriously wrong. In Thailand, politicians will not take
responsibility like that. This is part of the reason why TRT
stays together; he said that Thaksin also used money to keep
TRT "doves" from resigning.


5. (C) Banharn said that Thaksin had agreed to run a
different kind of campaign this time, spreading around less
money and not making inappropriate use of states funds/power.
Banharn said he believed Thaksin would keep his word, but
this was the "last time" Banharn would believe Thaksin if he
reneged on his pledge. He echoed complaints about Thaksin
saying all the right things and then doing whatever he wants.
Banharn said that TRT would have less money this time anyway,
so would not be able to spend as lavishly. Banharn noted the
difficult relationship between Thaksin and the Palace. The
Ambassador asked whether Thaksin understood that the rural
population voted for Thai Rak Thai, but they loved the King;
if they were forced to chose, they'd side with the King.
Banharn said that Thaksin understood this, but he had
advisors who wanted to undermine the role of the royal
family, particularly among the "October people" (former
student activists and communists) some of whom are now very
close to Thaksin. Thaksin also believes that members of the
Privy Council and other officials close to the King take
actions on their own initiative to undermine Thaksin, without
the King's support. Banharn emphasized that he had told
Thaksin this was just not so.


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6. (C) Comment: Banharn is a real political veteran, and is
rather more sanguine about the current political crisis than
many of our contacts. Banharn's several four-eyes meetings
with Thaksin have earned him some criticism for consorting
with the enemy, but he is likely to keep working the middle
ground in this polarized political landscape -- both for the
good of country and in the interests of his own little party.
End comment.
BOYCE