THAILAND: DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005429

SIPDIS

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TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: DIVIDED

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Thai elites are deeply concerned that Thai
society today is "more divided than ever" as a result of the
strong feelings, pro and anti, aroused by PM Thaksin
Shinnawatra. Thai politics do not appear any more turbulent
to us now than in the past, given Thailand's history of
military coups and violent repression of protesters. But
economic and social progress has given more Thai access to
information as well as a personal stake in the outcome of the
political struggle in the capital. Thailand may not be more
divided than ever, but there are more players on each side
than in the past, with a corresponding danger of spontaneous
outbreaks of disorder and violence. This may be an
unavoidable by-product of the growth of democracy, and one
which we believe, in the end, the Thai will be able to
manage. END SUMMARY.

WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY IS THIS?
--------------


2. (C) Thailand is more divided than ever in its history,
according to many of post's contacts. Former Prime Minister
Anand Panyarachun articulated this publicly in a speech on
August 30. "Thai society is now polarized by strong hatred.
If this condition is allowed to continue, we will be living
in horrifying times." He warned that Thailand was in danger
of becoming a "failed state" if the polarization continues.
"The Democrat Party can't go to the North, while Thaksin
can't step foot in the South. What kind of country is this?"


3. (C) During the past two weeks, the danger posed by this
polarization has been one of the first problems on the minds
of the Thaksin critics we have met.

-- Democrat Party Secretary General Suthep, a long-time
politician, he said that this was the first time in his life
that he needed a bodyguard. (Note: Suthep is the key
Democrat in pushing the lawsuit to dissolve the PM's Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party. The chief witness in the case has been
living at his home in the south since the story broke, since
it is widely feared that the witness would meet an untimely
end if he were not protected. end note.)

-- Suthep also commented on the two violent incidents from
August 19 and 22, On August 19, a small group of protesters
heckled Thaksin at the launch of a book honoring the King at
a swanky shopping mall. They shouted anti-Thaksin slogans,
and were restrained, and in some cases reportedly beaten, by
plainclothes security guards. On August 22, a handful of
protesters outside another mall shouted anti-Thaksin slogans,
and were beaten by two men who appeared to be known to the
police, while the police stood by watching (and the TV
cameras rolled.) TV coverage showed the two thugs repeatedly
manhandling and hitting an elderly man. Suthep claimed that
these kinds of things had never happened in election
campaigns before.

-- Suriyasai Katasila, a long-time NGO activist and current
PAD (Alliance for Democracy) leader, told us that the PAD was
very concerned about the possibility of violence. Suriyasai
feared that so many people hated Thaksin so strongly that
there was the real possibility of a spontaneous clash between
Thaksin supporters and opponents. PAD was also very
concerned about the increased possibility of a "third hand'
trying to provoke violence if/when the PAD returned to
demonstrate in Bangkok.

-- Privy Councillor Air Chief Marshall Siddhi Savetsila made
remarks in late August at a small reception in honor of the
Ambassador. He surprised the group by stating baldly that
Thai society was more divided than he had seen in his
lifetime.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) Privy Councillor Siddhi is 86 years old, and has
lived through every coup d'etat since the military overthrew
the absolute monarchy in 1932. Much of the public, like the
Democrat's Suthep, was upset by the TV images of the violence
against protesters in August, but Thai elections historically
are a contact sport. (For example, we reported 25 suspicious
deaths of political canvassers in the 2001 Human Rights

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Report.) According to Thaksin, last month's car bomb is not
even the first time someone has tried to blow him up. In
2001, a still-unexplained explosion occurred on a Thai
Airways jet minutes before Thaksin and a few hundred other
passengers boarded. (There are two theories -- either it was
an accident involving the plane's gas tank or a bomb placed
by Thaksin's enemies, but the official explanation at the
time claimed that it was a bomb.) The deep concern about
divisions in society voiced by our interlocutors seem to us
disproportionate, given the strikingly peaceful and orderly
demonstrations so far, especially when compared to Thailand's
turbulent history.


5. (C) So why all the angst? Part of it is just that
people tend to forget how bad the bad times were. But part
of it may stem from the way politics and Thai society have
changed in just a few years. Politics tended to be a game
mostly for the elite to play. In the wake of the 1992
demonstrations that toppled the dictatorship, the "People's
Constitution" of 1997, the broader access to media brought by
rising prosperity, and the populist policies of PM Thaksin
-- who staked his electoral success on maintaining the
support of the long-disregarded rural population -- politics
has been, well, democratized. Within Thai society, being
"krengjai" (modest, self-effacing) is no longer such a highly
prized virtue; citizens more often see the importance of
demanding their rights. A much broader segment of the
population feels that they have a real stake in the outcome
of the political battles in Bangkok, and they are prepared to
assert themselves. This does raise the overall political
temperature and make spontaneous violence between the rival
camps more possible. This may be an unavoidable by-product
of a shift from a political system marked by back-room
deal-making among the elites to one more genuinely
democratic. Old style pols and patricians may be spooked, but
we believe that the Thai can, in the end, manage the
transition.
BOYCE