THAILAND: DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005429 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: DIVIDED Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Thai elites are deeply concerned that Thai society today is "more divided than ever" as a result of the strong feelings, pro and anti, aroused by PM Thaksin Shinnawatra. Thai politics do not appear any more turbulent to us now than in the past, given Thailand's history of military coups and violent repression of protesters. But economic and social progress has given more Thai access to information as well as a personal stake in the outcome of the political struggle in the capital. Thailand may not be more divided than ever, but there are more players on each side than in the past, with a corresponding danger of spontaneous outbreaks of disorder and violence. This may be an unavoidable by-product of the growth of democracy, and one which we believe, in the end, the Thai will be able to manage. END SUMMARY. WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY IS THIS? -------------- ¶2. (C) Thailand is more divided than ever in its history, according to many of post's contacts. Former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun articulated this publicly in a speech on August 30. "Thai society is now polarized by strong hatred. If this condition is allowed to continue, we will be living in horrifying times." He warned that Thailand was in danger of becoming a "failed state" if the polarization continues. "The Democrat Party can't go to the North, while Thaksin can't step foot in the South. What kind of country is this?" ¶3. (C) During the past two weeks, the danger posed by this polarization has been one of the first problems on the minds of the Thaksin critics we have met. -- Democrat Party Secretary General Suthep, a long-time politician, he said that this was the first time in his life that he needed a bodyguard. (Note: Suthep is the key Democrat in pushing the lawsuit to dissolve the PM's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. The chief witness in the case has been living at his home in the south since the story broke, since it is widely feared that the witness would meet an untimely end if he were not protected. end note.) -- Suthep also commented on the two violent incidents from August 19 and 22, On August 19, a small group of protesters heckled Thaksin at the launch of a book honoring the King at a swanky shopping mall. They shouted anti-Thaksin slogans, and were restrained, and in some cases reportedly beaten, by plainclothes security guards. On August 22, a handful of protesters outside another mall shouted anti-Thaksin slogans, and were beaten by two men who appeared to be known to the police, while the police stood by watching (and the TV cameras rolled.) TV coverage showed the two thugs repeatedly manhandling and hitting an elderly man. Suthep claimed that these kinds of things had never happened in election campaigns before. -- Suriyasai Katasila, a long-time NGO activist and current PAD (Alliance for Democracy) leader, told us that the PAD was very concerned about the possibility of violence. Suriyasai feared that so many people hated Thaksin so strongly that there was the real possibility of a spontaneous clash between Thaksin supporters and opponents. PAD was also very concerned about the increased possibility of a "third hand' trying to provoke violence if/when the PAD returned to demonstrate in Bangkok. -- Privy Councillor Air Chief Marshall Siddhi Savetsila made remarks in late August at a small reception in honor of the Ambassador. He surprised the group by stating baldly that Thai society was more divided than he had seen in his lifetime. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) Privy Councillor Siddhi is 86 years old, and has lived through every coup d'etat since the military overthrew the absolute monarchy in 1932. Much of the public, like the Democrat's Suthep, was upset by the TV images of the violence against protesters in August, but Thai elections historically are a contact sport. (For example, we reported 25 suspicious deaths of political canvassers in the 2001 Human Rights BANGKOK 00005429 002 OF 002 Report.) According to Thaksin, last month's car bomb is not even the first time someone has tried to blow him up. In 2001, a still-unexplained explosion occurred on a Thai Airways jet minutes before Thaksin and a few hundred other passengers boarded. (There are two theories -- either it was an accident involving the plane's gas tank or a bomb placed by Thaksin's enemies, but the official explanation at the time claimed that it was a bomb.) The deep concern about divisions in society voiced by our interlocutors seem to us disproportionate, given the strikingly peaceful and orderly demonstrations so far, especially when compared to Thailand's turbulent history. ¶5. (C) So why all the angst? Part of it is just that people tend to forget how bad the bad times were. But part of it may stem from the way politics and Thai society have changed in just a few years. Politics tended to be a game mostly for the elite to play. In the wake of the 1992 demonstrations that toppled the dictatorship, the "People's Constitution" of 1997, the broader access to media brought by rising prosperity, and the populist policies of PM Thaksin -- who staked his electoral success on maintaining the support of the long-disregarded rural population -- politics has been, well, democratized. Within Thai society, being "krengjai" (modest, self-effacing) is no longer such a highly prized virtue; citizens more often see the importance of demanding their rights. A much broader segment of the population feels that they have a real stake in the outcome of the political battles in Bangkok, and they are prepared to assert themselves. This does raise the overall political temperature and make spontaneous violence between the rival camps more possible. This may be an unavoidable by-product of a shift from a political system marked by back-room deal-making among the elites to one more genuinely democratic. Old style pols and patricians may be spooked, but we believe that the Thai can, in the end, manage the transition. BOYCE