ALLEGED BOMB PLOT: MILITARY ON DEFENSIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005335

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: ALLEGED BOMB PLOT: MILITARY ON DEFENSIVE

REF: A. BANGKOK 5228


B. BANGKOK 5204

C. BANGKOK 4610

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Army lieutenant arrested August 24 has
given a confusing statement expressing contrition but saying
that he did not know there was a large bomb in the car he was
driving. He refuses to name anyone else in connection with
the incident. The Prime Minister has insisted that, in light
of the bomb attack, he must have trusted military officers
close to him moved into key positions, especially in Bangkok.
The government does not seem to be making a strong case that
the bomb attack was a real threat to the PM. The PM's
intervention in the military assignments process is another
measure that will exacerbate tensions between the PM and the
military. END SUMMARY.

2.(C) In the wake of the alleged assassination attempt of
August 24, two stories predominate. The first is the stream
of often contradictory information about the arrested driver,
Lt. Thawatchai Klinchana and other aspects of the
investigation. The second is the Prime Minister's decision
to use the incident as the basis for insisting that some of
the military officers he trusts (former fellow students from
the pre-Cadet Academy) be placed in key positions,
particularly around Bangkok.

THE POLICE INVESTIGATION
--------------


3. (C) The police have released the results of a interview
with Army Lieutenant Thawatchai Klinchana, arrested as the
driver of the car bomb found on August 24. On August 28, the
police showed the press a video in which Thawatchai said that
he "took responsibility" for driving the car and that he
would not say who had told him to drive it, since "he was a
soldier and would keep promises." He said, "What I did was
wrong, and I felt so sorry when I came to learn that the car
was loaded with a deadly bomb. I have the feeling that the
Siam Thewatirat (the guardian spirit of Bangkok) really
exists, making the bomb not explode... I confess to having
driven the car that caused the problem. Originally, I was
just told to drive the car to park. Nothing else. Nothing.
When I came to learn that there was a deadly bomb, I though
to myself, what have I done?" He also said, "If the bomb had
gone off, an enormous number of people would have suffered
and I would carry the sin for my whole life."


4. (C) According to the police, the driver has also
confessed to driving the same car on August 22 and 23, but
this statement is not shown on the video. According to some
reports, the police are trying to link the driver to an
"accident" that occurred earlier in the month affecting the
PM's motorcade; some reports are now casting that "accident"
as an attempt to injure or kill the PM. Police searched the
residence of another low-ranking military officer today and
the government claims that at least two more military
officers may be involved, identified only as "Col. S." and
"Lt. Col. M." None of these suspects has been picked up yet,
as far as we know. The police are forecasting further
arrests.


5. (C) Meanwhile, the media continue to question many
aspects of the initial police report. The police statement
that the bomb would have brought down the overpass under
which the car was parked, and would have caused damage for a
square kilometer, has been questioned. It is unclear to
everyone how the driver could have driven the car around not
knowing that there was a bomb in it, but the bomb squad was
able to see the bomb in the back seat. Informally, most
military contacts express skepticism about the whole story,
but police are loudly proclaiming that they thwarted a real
threat.

MILITARY RESHUFFLE LIST
--------------


6. (C) The military, already concerned about the implication
of its officers in the "bomb plot," got more bad news early
this week. The PM's former classmates from the pre-cadet
academy approached Thaksin following the discovery of the
bomb to express their concern for his safety. (Note: Thaksin

BANGKOK 00005335 002 OF 002


studied to be a policeman together with students destined for
the military in the pre-cadet academy. These high-school
groupings usually give rise to extremely strong class
loyalty, and the expectation that those who do well will help
out their colleagues. Thaksin is a member of Class 10, and
he has supported his classmates to help them rise quickly in
the military bureaucracy. End note.) Thaksin subsequently
told military and government officials that, due to the bomb,
he wanted to reexamine some of the military assignment
decisions recently agreed, and now insisted on putting some
of his classmates into key positions, especially in the
Bangkok area. Details of the PM's request have been reported
widely in the press, and a variety of US embassy sources
confirm the press reports are substantially correct.

7 (C) The annual military reshuffle is an extremely important
event, in which military officers contend for the assignments
that keep their careers advancing. Military officers may be
moved every year as they move up in rank and responsibility.
The military leadership believes that it should have the
authority to decide on assignments -- all the way up to the
highest offices -- without "political interference." In
fact, there is often some influence by the government or
Privy Council to advance favorites. However, the military
has been particularly unhappy with the reported efforts of
the PM to advance his classmates (ref c). We understood
that, after some quiet negotiation, a list had recently been
decided, and was beginning to go through the formal approval
process: getting government approval, then to the Privy
Council, then to the King for signature. Allegedly, some of
Thaksin's proteges had not done as well as they had hoped.
According the reports circulating, Thaksin is now insisting
that his classmates assume key positions for security in the
Bangkok area, like the 1st Army commander and the Royal
Guard (1st Division) commander.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) We still do not have enough information to reach a
conclusion about who was behind the car bomb and what their
goal was. The government is not doing a good job making its
case that it was a serious assassination attempt. The
arrested driver certainly does not sound like suicide bomber
or assassin. The immediate move by the PM to seize an
advantage and put his classmates in some important positions
can be interpreted two ways, like most of what has happened
so far. Either it's a cynical manipulation to play up the
alleged bomb to get concessions from the military the PM
couldn't get before. Or, it's a prudent step to have friends
watching his back during a dangerous time. In either case,
it will exacerbate the negative view that much of the
military now has of the PM, and contribute to already rising
tensions.


BOYCE