CABINET MEMBER DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005255 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ASEC TH SUBJECT: CABINET MEMBER DISCUSSES THAI POLITICAL SITUATION REF: BANGKOK 5204 (CAR BOMB DISCOVERED) Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Cabinet member Suranand Vejjajiva told us on August 28 that he sought to encourage Prime Minister Thaksin to withdraw from politics as soon as possible, but others around Thaksin urged him to continue fighting his political opponents. Suranand, Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office and a member of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Executive Board, believed TRT would need time to adjust to Thaksin's withdrawal, but the party's image remained sufficiently positive that faction leaders would prefer remaining within TRT rather than defecting. Suranand predicted with confidence that TRT, with or without Thaksin, would win a majority in the coming election, which could take place as late as early 2007. Admitting he did not know whether the August 24 car bomb incident was a government-manufactured provocation or part of a genuine assassination attempt, Suranand characterized the military as split, but he claimed both the military and the Palace were dedicated to resolving the current situation through democratic means. He urged that the USG remain on the sidelines as a neutral observer. End Summary. CAR BOMB -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 28, we called on Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office Suranand Vejjajiva. Opening with reference to the August 24 discovery of a purported car bomb near Prime Minister Thaksin's residence (reftel),Suranand said he did not know whether the bomb was genuine. He declined to speculate on the matter, noting that there were "too many rumors in Bangkok." He said national media coverage of the incident reflected Thaksin's lack of popularity with the Bangkok elite, and he bemoaned the government's inability to get its message out to the citizenry. However, Suranand promised TRT would make a concerted public relations effort and offer a more detailed platform than its principal rival, the Democratic Party. DEMOCRATIC FRAMEWORK RESPECTED, FOREIGN ROLE UNWELCOME -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Suranand acknowledged that the car bomb incident -- which triggered the dismissal from the Internal Security Operation Command (ISOC) of Major General (ret.) Panlop Pinmanee -- had the potential to further aggravate factionalism within the Thai military. Military officers were as susceptible to rumor-mongering as the rest of Thai officialdom. However, he noted the military now consisted of professionals who would want any political change to take place through democratic mechanisms. The Palace, too, was committed to the democratic process. We welcomed this assurance, noting the USG's strong support for democracy and our neutrality in the current political wrangling. Suranand said it was critical for the USG to remain on the sidelines, as any perceived foreign interference would provoke a strong backlash. THAKSIN SHOULD DECIDE NOW -------------- ¶4. (C) Given the current political climate, Suranand expressed his personal preference for Thaksin to withdraw from politics, at least temporarily. If his successor(s) were to mismanage the country, Suranand noted, the citizenry might well call for Thaksin's return sometime in the future. Whatever Thaksin's decision, he should announce it as soon as possible, because TRT would need time to adjust. The current, vague state of affairs would doom TRT's prospects in Bangkok, Suranand said, predicting the party would fail to garner even a single seat in Bangkok under status quo conditions. If Thaksin were to take a clear stand, however, TRT might win 10-20 of Bangkok's 36 seats. Suranand stated with confidence that TRT's strength in the countryside would provide the party with a majority in the House of Representatives. However, he admitted a weak showing in Bangkok would seriously undercut the Prime Minister's legitimacy. ¶5. (C) We asked whether, holding a majority in the House and facing continuing criticism from his opponents, Thaksin would BANGKOK 00005255 002 OF 002 easily forsake the advantages associated with formal political power. Suranand acknowledged that the choice was difficult for Thaksin, but he (Suranand) felt that holding the premiership would not affect the eventual court rulings, and Thaksin should conduct this struggle as a private citizen. When we asked whether any person or institution might be able to persuade Thaksin's opponents to moderate their rhetorical and legal efforts against him in exchange for his voluntary withdrawal from politics, Suranand said he had been trying to convince Thaksin to pursue this type of deal. However, others around Thaksin (NFI) were pushing him to take a more confrontational approach and to intimidate his opponents. EFFECT OF THAKSIN'S HYPOTHETICAL WITHDRAWAL -------------- ¶6. (C) TRT could survive despite losing Thaksin as its formal leader, Suranand said. The party had built a popular brand that did not rely wholly on Thaksin's image, and a majority of Thais found TRT's policies appealing. Faced with a choice, most TRT faction leaders would understand they would be more successful standing for election as TRT candidates rather than as members of a new, unknown party. Suranand specifically dismissed as unimportant the recent defection of former TRT faction leader Sanoh Thianthong. Nevertheless, it would take time and effort for faction leaders to reach a consensus in favor of the next party leader. Suranand declined to specify whom faction leaders might coalesce around, but he noted that the faction leaders' candidate would likely not be the same person Thaksin would be inclined to select as his successor. (Comment: Suranand's comment was consistent with a reasonably widespread perception that Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak is best positioned to hold TRT together in the event of Thaksin's withdrawal; TRT Deputy Spokesman Pimuk Simaroj recently told us that, absent Thaksin, only Somkid could keep the party together, but Thaksin reportedly resents Somkid's ambition. End Comment.) ¶7. (C) When asked to comment on TRT relations with Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silapa-Archa, Suranand characterized Banharn as an unprincipled opportunist trying to gain influence by wielding a swing vote. Suranand dismissed popular speculation that Thaksin might support Banharn as the next Prime Minister, noting Thaksin would look first to large faction leaders within TRT. Thaksin's backing Banharn for the position would deal a serious blow to TRT. In an acerbic aside, however, Suranand quipped that Banharn nevertheless had a better chance at winning the premiership than Suranand's cousin, Democratic Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. Abhisit "still has a lot to learn" about Thai politics, Suranand said. ELECTION TIMING -------------- ¶8. (C) Suranand hoped aloud that the next national legislative election could take place on October 15, consistent with the current schedule. However, he acknowledged the election would likely be delayed, saying it might even slip to early 2007. (Comment: A delay in the election date is generally seen as favoring the opposition, as legal cases against Thaksin will move forward in coming months. However, Democratic Party Secretary General Suthep Thaugsuban recently told us he worried that his party lacked the funds for a prolonged campaign. End Comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Suranand appeared sincere in his assessment of the current situation and troubled by the absence of a scenario offering Thaksin an easy exit from politics and escape from the current turmoil. As TRT's founder and leader, Thaksin plays a key role in keeping the party united; but he also threatens to drag TRT down with him, as political attacks focused on the Prime Minister continue. Suranand represents the "dove" faction, which is encouraging Thaksin to take a break, even if it results in fewer seats in the next parliament for TRT. However, all signs point to the hawks, telling Thaksin to stay and fight, as being close to the Prime Minister now. BOYCE