THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: SCHISMS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005072

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: SCHISMS AND
UNCERTAINTIES


Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The caretaker Senate formed a Background
Investigation Committee on August to look into the ten EC
candidates for the next twenty days, after which the Senate
will vote to select five winners. If the committee takes the
full twenty days, it will likely lead to a delay of the
elections scheduled for October 15. This is probably
generally acceptable here if it is necessary. Meanwhile,
factional schisms within the TRT are becoming more apparent,
with rumors of various party leaders considering leaving
politics -- perhaps as a ploy to pressure Thaksin to step
aside. Commerce Minister Somkid is the latest rumored
deserter. Thaksin dismissed the rumors, saying that, in any
case, all his ministers were "just his helpers" and he is the
main force in government. End Summary.


TO DELAY OR NOT DELAY?
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2. (C) The caretaker Senate voted August 15 to form a
Background Investigation Committee to examine the ten
Election Commission (EC) candidates, setting a twenty day
deadline to complete their investigation and bring the
candidates to a vote. Although the committee could
conceivably conclude their investigation prior to the
twenty-day deadline, it appears unlikely that the new EC
would be formed by August 24, when the royal decree calling
for the election becomes effective. If August 24 passes
without an existing EC, several possibilities arise --

SCENARIO ONE


3. (C) If the new EC is elected by the beginning of
September, it could perhaps stick to scheduled October 15
election date. This, however, may be logistically
problematic. The previous election commissioners already set
September 5 as the date to begin candidate registration, so
the new EC really must be formed by that date to either
receive registrations or officially announce a delay. Even if
the final EC members are selected and confirmed before
September 5, they would need time to organize their
administration in order to run a credible election. The new
EC may try to stick to the election date set by the royal
decree, since this has already been signed by the King (still
recovering from his surgery last month.) However, this
appears more and more difficult.

SCENARIO TWO


4. (SBU) The new EC could delay the candidate registration
date and election date by means of requesting a new royal
decree. (Note: By law, candidate registration occurs within
twenty days of the royal decree's effective date, and the
election within sixty days, so any delay beyond October 22
will require the King to sign a new decree. End note.) The
EC would then have more time to prepare and run the election.
The results of a delayed, but better-prepared election may
also be better-received by the country.


LOVE HURTS
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5. (SBU) Members of Thai Rak Thai (TRT) outside the party's
strongholds are reportedly concerned that they could face a
backlash in the election contests for constituency seats. We
hear that many are trying to get more secure spots on the
party list ballot. Traditionally, some important TRT figures
are not MPs at all, but serve in ministerial or other
political appointments. Elected MPs are secure in their
positions, in most circumstances, until the next election,
but Thaksin's ministers do not appear to have much job
security. Thaksin is said to plan on divvying up these jobs
in a way to benefit those closest to him, slating TRT
factional leaders and some other key figures for political
appointments rather than MP slots, and thereby "depriving"
these individuals of the relative independence and security
of MP status.


6. (C) Not surprisingly, rumors of more discontent within
TRT are increasing. Newspapers reported this week that
Commerce Minister Somkid, a founding member of TRT who is

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well regarded particularly by business leaders, is said to be
considering taking a break from politics after the elections.
(Somkid's concerns about Thaksin have been evident from our
contacts with him as well.) This may just be part of a plan
to put pressure on Thaksin to step aside, rather than drag
TRT down with him. If so, it doesn't appear to be working so
far. In reaction to the possible departure of Somkid,
Thaksin told reporters that "today, I am the major force (in
the government) and everybody else is just my helper."
(Comment: another morale boost for the embattled TRT
members. End comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Opposition parties such as the Democrats and Chart
Thai may appreciate extra time on the campaign trail;
delaying the election probably disadvantages Thaksin and the
TRT. The already apparent schism within the TRT may deepen
with passing time, and the ceaseless attacks targeting the PM
may also weaken Thaksin's popularity, despite his continued
strength in the North and Northeast. Leaving aside partisan
issues, there is a compelling interest in getting a
functioning, legitimate parliament and government in place
without unnecessary delay. Nonetheless, Thaksin conceded
today that the elections might slip until the end of October,
and we expect that such a delay would be broadly acceptable
if it were necessary. Once the new EC is in place --
hopefully in very early September -- we should finally get an
election date we can count on.
BOYCE