Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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06BANGKOK4525 | 2006-07-26 10:54:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bangkok |
VZCZCXRO1535 OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM DE RUEHBK #4525/01 2071054 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 261054Z JUL 06 FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0489 INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004525 |
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Criminal Court's verdict against the Election Commission is strongly worded and openly states that the three were denied bail in order to prevent them from running the October election. The Commissioners have signed letters of resignation; one promises to enter the monkhood once he makes bail. The opposition is gleeful about the verdict; TRT is philosophical. Although the hard-core opposition is still calling for PM Thaksin's immediate resignation, most of the players appear ready to take the fight off the streets and back to the polling booths. Things seem to be on track for a reasonably acceptable election on October 15. END SUMMARY. ROCKET-PROPELLED KARMA -------------------------- 2. (C) Election Commission Chairman Wassana Permlap and his fellow commissioners Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien signed their resignation letters this morning (July 26). This follows their conviction yesterday for violations of the election code in their running of the aborted April 2 elections (reftel). The Criminal Court has used remarkably strong and clear language in their verdict, which has been gotten extensive press coverage, including on broadcast media. The Court specifically said that EC made decisions that favored Thai Rak Thai (TRT), particularly in their decision to allow new candidates to register for the second round of voting on April 23. The three commissioners had held on to their jobs despite tremendous pressure to resign after the elections were annulled in May by the Constitutional Court. Commissioner Prinya was protesting his readiness to organize the October poll even as his bail request was turned down. Commissioner Virachai, who was moved to the hospital today for kidney dialysis, told the press he planned to become a monk once he makes bail. 3. (C) It was clear yesterday that the court had decided not to allow bail for the three specifically to trigger constitutional provisions that render someone ineligible to be an election commissioner if they have been convicted and imprisoned ("detained by a warrant of the Court.") The court actually spelled out its intention in the verdict, "It is evident in the case that if the three defendants are temporarily released on bail, they will continue to work in their capacity to prepare the October 15 election, which may cause severe damage and be detrimental to the election, leading to a crisis that can affect the peace and order of the country. The Court therefore denies bail for the temporary release of the three defendants." 4. (C) The opposition can barely contain its glee over the verdict and the sentencing of the three. People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) members in the south set off 10,000 firecrackers to celebrate. Even ministers are going along without a whimper. Finance Minister Thanong told the press that the court's verdict would boost investor confidence and said that the ruling was in line with democratic ways. The best analysis came from massage-parlor-magnate-turned-opposition-poli tician Chuwit Kamolvisit, who lost his seat in parliament in 2005 when these commissioners disqualified him on technical grounds. He told the press, "The law of Karma is now propelled by a rocket. We didn't have to wait until the next life to see justice being served." LOOKING FORWARD -------------------------- 5. (C) Officials are emphasizing that new commissioners will be chosen quickly. In the interim, there are a number of things which will apparently have to go on hold. There remain a handful of senators elected in April who still have not had their mandate confirmed. They will presumably remain in limbo until the new commission considers their cases. (Since several, at least, are popular Bangkok personalities who would be no friends of TRT, they are probably happy to wait for the new EC.) The results of the local election in Bangkok, run on July 23 -- which resulted in a very strong showing by the Democrat party -- may have to await validation until the new commission is in place. Basic arrangements for running the October 15 polls can probably be handled by the BANGKOK 00004525 002 OF 002 local election commissions and by the professional staff. So far, it appears that the elections can be held on October 15. THEY KNOW AS MUCH AS WE DO -------------------------- 6. (U) The intense focus on the fate of the much maligned Election Commissioners has taken the spotlight off the Prime Minister for a few days. The Bangkok Post scooped the competition over the weekend with the inside story from the International Symposium on Vedic Sciences. Both Thailand's top astrologer and a distinguished Indian seer predicted that Thaksin would lose the premiership, but be back in politics in five years. The forum was presided over by former prime minister (and political hopeful) General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. He had his fortune read by the Indian psychic as well, but refused to reveal what the stars said about his future. COMMENT -------------------------- 7. (C) The stars are now in alignment for a reasonably acceptable election on October 15. The PAD continues to complain that Thaksin should step down before the vote, but the opposition parties are not expecting this to happen. A major controversy over the selection of new election commissioners, or a major blunder by Thaksin, could provoke more protests, but most of the players appear ready to take the contest off the streets and into the polling booths. 8. (C) The court's harsh treatment of the election commissioners sends a very clear message to everyone involved in the election process ahead. The gloves are off, and the courts are ready to impose real penalties for election shenanigans. The fact that the verdict singles out TRT as the beneficiary of the EC's violations is another blow to the Prime Minister, and a warning shot across TRT's bow. ARVIZU |