PALACE APPROVES OCTOBER 15 THAI ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 004416

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS, NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH
SUBJECT: PALACE APPROVES OCTOBER 15 THAI ELECTION

REF: A. BANGKOK 004373 (SHUFFFLING DECKS IN A
HIGH-STAKES GAME)

B. BANGKOK 004277 (JOCKEYING INTENSIFIES)

C. BANGKOK 004041 (STEAK WITH THAKSIN)

Classified By: CDA ALEX A. ARVIZU. REASON 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) In a royal surprise, the King (currently recovering
from surgery) has formally approved the October 15 general
election, setting the stage for a possible breakthrough in
one aspect of the political crisis. While the palace's
assent to a new vote was not in itself unexpected, most
observers believed that it would not come until next month,
and would be granted only if the controversial Election
Commission (EC) was replaced. Indeed Thaksin told the
Ambassador on July 7 (ref C) that he expected the EC to
resign, but also believed that the date of the next vote
would slip.


2. (C) Other members of the political elite agreed on the
latter point. The ongoing court cases against both Thaksin's
Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the opposition Democrat parties--as
well as wrangling over the EC--would delay a new election.
Even before today's announcement, however, conventional
wisdom on this issue had begun to shift. In a possible nod
to the untenability of the current situation (a PM without a
parliament for five months, rising investor wariness, etc.)
various tentacles of TRT have publicly stated this week that
the election really has to happen on October 15. Some
observers now believe that there will be no resolution to
many of the pending court cases (and potential dissolution of
the two main parties) until after the election. It's not
clear yet why the palace decided today to release a decree
that won't be valid for another month. The palace may be
trying to counter coup fears that have increased with the
rising tension between the military leadership and the
government (refs A,B.) The King seems to be signaling that
the crisis must be resolved at the ballot box and not through
other means.


3. (C) We do not know the details of the deal that
facilitated this development (or if there even was one),but
the EC remains the key stumbling block to a new vote. Adding
weight to rumors of a deal involving the EC, the King called
for a real, fair and clean election in a rare statement
following the royal order. If the EC members do resign, it
will take some time (and involve some creative legal
maneuvers) to establish a new EC and prepare for the vote.
But it will be one major and welcome step forward.
ARVIZU