Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BANGKOK3916
2006-07-03 13:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

WHAT'S THAKSIN UP TO?

Tags:  PGOV PHUM TH 
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OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #3916/01 1841300
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031300Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9859
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003916 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: WHAT'S THAKSIN UP TO?

REF: BANGKOK 3349 (NOODLES WITH THAKSIN)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003916

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: WHAT'S THAKSIN UP TO?

REF: BANGKOK 3349 (NOODLES WITH THAKSIN)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Thaksin asserted himself aggressively in
the past week, suing the Democrat Party for over usdols 25
million, and alleging that an unnamed "person with charisma"
was trying to use undemocratic means to gain power. He has
refused to name the person, but it is widely recognized as an
attack on Privy Council President Prem, a highly respected
former Prime Minister, viewed as almost a proxy for the King.
Such comments are very inflammatory. A palace insider
recounted how the Queen has been educated on Thaksin's
efforts to undermine the royal institution. This royal
confidant also alleged that Thaksin's judgment has been
affected by taking large doses of valium to cope with the
stress. The Democrat Party leader said the Party was ready
to defend itself against Thaksin's attacks, Thaksin, as
usual, is his own worst enemy; his attack on Prem has
probably done him more harm than any of his "enemies" could
do. End Summary.

ATTACK ON PRIVY COUNCILLOR PREM
--------------


2. (C) After a brief break to celebrate the King's 60th
anniversary on the throne, PM Thaksin has come out swinging,
more aggressively than ever. While his own political
fortunes are still very unclear, he appears bent on fighting
every step of the way, and taking everyone down with him if
he goes. He may have miscalculated, however, in making a
not-so-veiled attack on the very popular Privy Council
President General Prem Tinsulanonda. Thaksin, speaking
before a assembly of civil servants and military officers on
June 29, railed against a "person who has charisma" who is
"outside the Constitution," saying, "Some people think that
they are more important than others" and "want to be Prime
Minister under Article 7 despite his Majesty's comments that
it is undemocratic." He claimed that this unnamed person was
behind the resignations of two top legal advisors in his
administration (Cabinet secretary Bowornsak and DPM Wisanu.)
He vowed to fight against undemocratic changes as long as he
was prime minister.


3. (C) Immediately after the speech, journalists asked
Thaksin who the "person with charisma" was. (Charisma -
"barami" - is a term signifying great merit and high status,
not just popularity.) Thaksin has so far refused to answer,
as have various spokesmen for the party and government. The
local press coverage was a little timid at first, but it is
now widely commenting on the PM's remarks and noting that
they refer pretty clearly to General. Prem. Thaksin's

comments have been described by various academics "an open
declaration of war." In addition to the high esteem the
public feels for Prem himself, the General is regarded in
many ways as a proxy for the King.

PALACE INSIDER'S VIEW
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador met on June 30 with Piya Malakul Na
Ayutthaya (protect),a close associate of the Queen and a
very knowledgeable palace insider. Piya said that those
attending the PM's speech had been shocked by his attack on
Gen. Prem; Piya has received many calls since the speech
expressing dismay and asking what should be done about the
PM's remarks. He felt that the PM was trying to attack the
King himself through Prem. He described the many ways in
which Thaksin and his associates had been working to
undermine the King and the royal institution. There was an
overseas website which for months had carried scurrilous and
crude attacks on the monarchy. Piya presented a convincing
case that he had traced the source of the money being paid to
the webmaster of this site (usdols 4000/month) to the wife of
the TRT deputy secretary general Phumtham Vechayachai. He
described the website as part of a program by Thaksin and his
supporters to diminish the role of the monarchy. The
Ambassador noted that Thaksin felt he was a rival of the King
for the affections of the rural population. Piya agreed, and
pointed out how TRT officials had sycophantically received
Thaksin on his trips to the North and Northeast, swelling his
ego.


5. (C) Piya said he had spent three days with the Queen
right before the 60th anniversary celebrations earlier last
month "explaining" to her what the PM was up to. He gave her
hundreds of pages of printouts from the anti-monarchy
website. (Comment: The Queen was long considered a Thaksin
supporter in the Palace, perhaps beholden to the PM for

BANGKOK 00003916 002 OF 002


funding and for his support for her rather unpopular son.
Piya's story corroborates what we have heard from other
sources, that the Queen may no longer be a fan of Thaksin.
End comment.)


6. (C) Piya recounted how Thaksin's star was falling. The
Army First Cavalry Division commander is an ally of
Thaksin's, from the same prep class in the police/military
academy (Class 10). Piya told us that the First Cavalry
deputy commander had recently reassured him that the First
Cavalry would not support any kind of pro-Thaksin coup
attempt; no matter what their chief ordered, "We won't
listen to him." Piya welcomed the assurance that the unit
would not take part in a coup, even while bemoaning the
weakened state of the military, in which subordinates would
flout their superiors' orders. He also indicated that, if
the situation did not resolve itself soon, the Army might
step in, in some unspecified manner.

IT'S THE VALIUM TALKING
--------------


7. (C) Everyone is speculating on why Thaksin launched this
attack. Piya claims that Thaksin is taking large doses of
Valium (28 mg) to cope with the pressure he's under. The
Democrat party spokesman suggested that Prem may be operating
behind the scenes, encouraging the Constitutional Court
justices to find against Thaksin; these efforts may have come
to Thaksin's attention, infuriating him so that he blew a
gasket. (Thaksin told the Ambassador over lunch on June 1
that Prem and other privy councillors were out to destroy him
- reftel.) Others point to Thaksin's penchant for spouting
off combined with his ingrained arrogance, Whatever the
reason, this was a reckless act, provocative to society at
large and particularly to the Army. (Just a few months ago,
for example, former Bangkok governor and political blowhard
Samak was taken off the air when he criticized General Prem
on his morning TV show on the Army channel.)


8. (C) The Privy Council isn't Thaksin's only target.
Immediately after the King's celebration, Thaksin sued the
Democrats (for calling him a blood-sucking demon) and three
newspapers for publishing those accusations. On June 30, he
sued the Democrats again, for one billion baht (about usdols
26 million),for defaming him in a speech earlier this year.
(The Democrats reportedly accused him of culpability the
incidents at Krue Se and Tak Bai, of evading taxes on the
sale his Shin Corp in January, and of destroying the
parliamentary system.)


9. (C) During a meeting with the Ambassador on July 3,
Democrat Party leader Abhisit said that the Democrats would
welcome the chance to defend themselves in court on the PM's
charges. Abhisit said that, unlike Singapore, the goal of
these cases against the opposition is not really to win a
large settlement, but just to keep them busy and off-balance,
constantly on the defensive. In such cases, the plaintiff's
lawyers will often ask for many continuances, so that they
never have to make their case. Abhisit said he will
challenge Thaksin to actually appear in court so the
Democrats can make their case.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Thaksin, once again, may be his own worst enemy.
Although his opponents were unhappy with his return to a more
active political role during this interval, most probably
accept the need for someone to run the country until the new
elections return a new government. Whether on account of
stress or hubris, Thaksin has seemingly overstepped, leaving
himself exposed by firing off a salvo in the general
direction of the Palace. Given the growing impatience of the
King (and those around him) with prime minister, everyone is
waiting to see what the response will be to Thaksin's upping
the political ante. The Ambassador will call on Prem at his
residence on July 5; it will be interesting to see what the
usually phlegmatic gentleman has to say about the latest
twist in Thailand's seemingly endless political drama.

BOYCE

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