THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: CHECKS, LIES AND VIDEOTAPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003277

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAI POLITICAL UPDATE: CHECKS, LIES AND VIDEOTAPE

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES F. COLE. REASON 1.4 (B,
D)


1. (C) Summary. Thailand's bipolar political disorder
remained stable Wednesday as caretaker Prime Minister
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party pushed to move on to a
new election while the political opposition remained focused
on using alleged irregularities in the April 2 vote to
destroy TRT. Thaksin's caretaker cabinet agreed on May 30 to
hold the next election on October 15, which would mean
that--for the first time since 2001--candidates would have a
short window to switch parties before the vote. Meanwhile,
the Criminal Court has agreed to accept an opposition
Democrat Party (DP) case accusing the Election Commission of
malfeasance. Newspaper headlines, however, focused on new,
leaked videotape footage that seems to support DP claims that
senior TRT officials colluded with "micro-party" candidates
in the April 2 election. The tapes have sent the TRT into
heavy spin mode, with at least one opposition newspaper
reporting that Thaksin vented his fury over the leaks in
yesterday's cabinet meeting. True to form, TRT is now
preparing a lawsuit charging the DP with hiring the micro
parties to "frame" TRT. This will likely be the last
bombshell before the King's anniversary celebration next
month forces a political time-out. End Summary.

ELECTION SET FOR OCTOBER 15
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2. (SBU) The caretaker cabinet on Tuesday approved the
Election Commission's (EC) proposal to hold new House
elections on October 15. Given the long lead time until the
next vote, and the requirement that candidates be members of
their political party for at least 90 days prior to
registering for the race, this would be the first "open
window" for party switching since the new 90-day rule came
into effect in the 2001 vote. That window, however, would
close in the next two-three weeks. In the "for what it's
worth" category, Deputy TRT leader and caretaker Agriculture
Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan told reporters on Tuesday that no
TRT members had expressed a desire to leave the party, yet.

CRIMINAL CASE AGAINST EC MOVES AHEAD
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3. (SBU) In a boost to opposition efforts to force the
controversial EC to resign before any new elections, the
Criminal Court announced on May 30 that it will proceed with
a court case charging EC members with malfeasance. The case,
filed by the Democrat Party, contends that the four EC
members broke the law in allowing candidates in the April 2
vote to switch constituencies in the second round of voting
on April 23. (Note, a move that was widely seen as beneficial
to TRT. End Note.) The trial date has been set for June 19.

SMILE! YOU'RE ON MOD CAMERA
--------------


4. (SBU) The cabinet and court's decisions were soon
overtaken by the release of photos allegedly showing Defense
Minister Thammarak Issarangkul Na Ayyuthaya--who managed the
TRT campaign--meeting with leaders of the micro-parties at
the Ministry of Defense in March. DP Secretary-General
Suthep Thuagsuban provided the images to the Criminal Court
as evidence of his claim that TRT paid the smaller parties to
run in the April 2, in order to help TRT avoid having to get
20 percent of the votes in single-candidate constituencies.


5. (C) The initial TRT response to these charges was poorly
coordinated. MOD Permsec General Sirichai Thunyasiri told
reporters on Tuesday that the photos were indeed from MOD
cameras and that he was investigating how they were leaked.
Following a meeting with Thammarak, Sirichai added that
Thammarak denied any knowledge of the footage. Another
senior aide to Thammarak told reporters that the micro-party
leaders had sought a meeting with the Defense Minister, but
were turned down. According to this account, the man
resembling Thammarak in the photos is actually his
photographer. Deputy TRT spokesman Chatuporn Prompan
attempted a separate tack, suggesting that the micro-party
leaders had been paid by DP officials to "set-up" Thammarak;
indeed, TRT lawyers have prepared a lawsuit charging the DP
with just that. The Nation newspaper--often at the forefront
of anti-Thaksin reporting--reported Wednesday that the
kerfluffle had prompted the PM to demand Thammarak explain
himself in yesterday's cabinet meeting, saying "why is it so
obvious? It is damning evidence...how can you come up with a
defense?"

COMMENT
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6. (C) For the minority of Thai who still have the
energy/desire to follow politics, this new "evidence" merely
confirms the conventional wisdom that TRT worked with the
micro-parties in the April 2 vote. That said, it could form
the basis of a stronger case calling for the dissolution of
TRT or, at the least, force Thammarak to fall on his sword.
Either way, this episode is likely to be the last bombshell
before preparations for the King's 60th anniversary in June
force politics into a short, but fitful slumber.
BOYCE