SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: MAY 17-18 VISIT TO FAR SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003192 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS PACOM FOR FPS (HUS0) NSC FOR MORROW E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: MAY 17-18 VISIT TO FAR SOUTH REF: A. BANGKOK 826 (AN EMERGING REALITY ON THE GROUND) ¶B. BANGKOK 1134 (CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS) ¶C. BANGKOK 2335 (THAIS BEGIN TALKS WITH PULO) ¶D. BANGKOK 7527 (RTG REACHES OUT TO SEPARATISTS) Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During a May 17-18 visit to the far southern provinces of Pattani and Yala, poloffs heard optimistic reports from security officials. The Emergency Decree has allowed the government to detain suspects and develop information on insurgent members and tactics. Statistical data from local academics shows that since December 2005 the total number of attacks in the South has dropped, however; violence directed against Muslim civilian "collaborators" has increased. Heightened tension continues between the Buddhist and Muslim communities; part of the generally high level of fear and uncertainty among the local populace. Some areas of Narathiwat province have become "no go" areas for Thai officials. The sense of "injustice" and dislike of Prime Minister Thaksin remain unifying factors for southerners. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) On May 17-18 poloffs traveled to the violence afflicted far provinces of Pattani and Yala as part of Post's continued efforts to monitor the situation in the far South. Poloffs met with senior police and local government officials, prominent academics, journalists, and human rights workers covering the region. OFFICIALS CLAIM TO BE MAKING "SIGNIFICANT" PROGRESS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Local officials gave cautiously optimistic assessments of the current situation in the far South. Police Major General Amporn Charuchinda said police were making significant progress against insurgents. They have identified 500 militants and have detained 200 by using the Emergency Decree. Senior police and Ministry of Interior (MOI) officials in Yala said the Emergency Decree, in place since July 2005, was an increasingly effective tool for authorities. Detained suspects are providing authorities with the names of additional militant members and details on the make up of insurgent cells. Officials would like the Decree (which currently has to be renewed every 90 days) extended for several years. The senior-level MOI officials claimed the problem in the South was reaching the point where it could be "controlled." Dr. Sisomphop Kitphiromsi, a professor at Prince of Songkhla University (PSU) in Pattani, agreed that officials had made some progress, noting that local security forces were developing a better feel for the situation. "RED ZONE" NO-GO AREAS A REALITY -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite police claims that they are making advances against militants, we heard several reports that there are areas of Narathiwat province where RTG security forces dare not visit without large numbers of forces. Police General Amporn admitted that there were dangerous villages which normal police patrols could not visit without a minimum force of 10-20 armed men. MOI officials also said there were villages in Narathiwat where all government officials had pulled out. (Note: During a separate meeting in Bangkok, International Crisis Group (ICG) analyst Francessca Lawe-Davies - author of ICG's report "Southern Thailand: Insurgency, not Jihad" - told poloffs that she had found several "denied areas" during a recent research trip to the South, most notably the Sungai Padi district of Narathiwat. End Note) Don Pathan (strictly protect) a well respected journalist for the Nation newspaper, said militants in Sungai Padi were brazen enough that they were openly organizing villagers to defy authorities. STATISTICS SHOW TOTAL VIOLENCE DOWN, ATTACKS ON MUSLIMS UP -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Dr. Sisomphop Kitphiromsi provided us statistical data that shows that the level of violence in the far south has fallen since December 2005. (Note: Sisomphop maintains the most credible statistical database on incidents of violence in the South that we have found (reftel B). He has followed the violence in the South closely for the past two years, and compiles his data based on security officials and his own sources within southern villages. End Note) The average number of attacks in the first quarter of 2006 was 94 per month, which compares with an average of 147.5 incidents per month in 2005-6. Sisomphop cited a number of factors that could have influenced the decline, including flooding in December, the political situation in Bangkok, and more effective military and police tactics. ¶6. (C) While the total number of attacks has gone down in recent months, the number of attacks on Muslims has increased. Dr. Sisomphop opined that local Muslims associated with the government were being targeted by militants as "collaborators." He noted that most of the recent propaganda leaflets found in the South called for either an "Independent Pattani Kingdom," or for "collaborator Muslims" to be attacked. According to Sisomphop, 85 percent of the violent incident in the South are attributable to militants, 13 percent were the result of personal conflicts, and 2 percent from security forces. While the violence continues, Pattani Vice Governor Winai said that it was important to keep it in context. "There are 630,000 people in this province and most are not affected by the violence," he said. NRC REPORT WILL CALL FOR DIALOGUE -------------- ¶7. (C) Dr. Piya Kitthawon, a National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) member and professor at PSU, confirmed to us that the NRC's final report will include a recommendation that the government "negotiate" with militants (reftels C,D). (Note: The NRC's final report is expected to be released by June 9. End Note). Dr. Sisomphop, who is also working with the NRC, was not confident talks could produce results. The military had tried for years to establish a dialogue with the militants but had been unable to get access to credible leaders, he noted. Sisomphop opined that the highly nationalistic Thai electorate would not accept any negotiations that called for greater autonomy in the South. "The majority of Thai don't care about the Malay's and would never accept autonomy for the far South," he said. SENSE OF "INJUSTICE," DISLIKE OF THAKSIN, STILL STRONG -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) It was clear from several of our conversations that the feeling of "injustice," and a dislike of Prime Minister Thaksin -- common themes in previous visits to the South -- remained strong unifying factors among local Malay Muslims. Dr. Sisomphop said government failures to deliver on education and employment reforms added to already deep local anger at the central government. Thaksin was strongly identified by many Malay Muslims with failed government policies and the recent heightened violence. Sisomphop opined that a new government, without Prime Minister Thaksin, might be able to make progress towards addressing these grievances. CLIMATE OF FEAR CONTINUES -------------- ¶9. (C) Several of our interlocutors highlighted the growing "climate of fear" among the local populace as a serious area of concern. Two years of steady attacks by shadowy militants -- without demands being made or leaders identified -- have left the populace fearful and deeply suspicious of those outside their immediate family or village circles. Journalist Don Pathan -- who travels widely in rural areas -- said that he found most villagers "terrified for their lives." Dr. Sisomphop noted that as a result of this high level of fear there was less sympathy and declining support for the militant "movement" among the local Malay-Muslim populace. Locals are afraid of the militants and fearful and suspicious of security forces. While there is no evidence of widespread human rights violations by security forces, memories of the October 2004 Tak Bai incident and extra-judicial killings during the 2003 "war on drugs" are still in the minds of people in the region. Human Rights Watch (HRW) investigator Sunai Phasuk, in Pattani to investigate reports of disappearances by security forces, said they had identified only 24 possible cases since 2004. However, fear of police and the military remained high among southerners. ONGOING TENSION/CONTINUED BUDDHISTS FLIGHT -------------- ¶10. (C) Reports of tension between the local Buddhist and Muslim communities in the far South was again a theme during our visit (reftel A). HRW investigator Sunai said they were investigating the pattern of deliberate intimidation of civilians by militants. Sunai cited beheadings and attacks on monks as deliberate attempts to provoke, or drive out, local Buddhist residents. Anecdotal evidence of Buddhist flight continued to be common. HRW's Sunai said that in Pattani's Yaring district almost every Buddhist had fled. Sunai noted that in the past government schools had been targeted by militants for arson attacks, however; recently militants were targeting Buddhist teachers. (Note: For example, on May 19 two Buddhist teachers were held hostage and then severely beaten by villagers in Narathiwat. End Note) The MOI officials in Yala said their assessment was that militants were deliberately trying to drive the communities apart and estrange the local populace from the government. Dr. Sisomphop said there was evidence that the Buddhist population continued to shift out of the far South, especially at the village level where many had left. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) The optimistic assessments we heard from local officials are in line with what senior administration officials in Bangkok have been saying of late. While statistics do confirm a recent drop in violence, we are not as sanguine as RTG officials that a corner has been turned in the South. Officials do appear to be making incremental improvements, especially tactically. However, as "no go" areas, continued Buddhist flight, and recent dramatic attacks demonstrate, the Thai have a long-way to go before they get a hold on this situation. BOYCE