MANICHAEAN STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF THAILAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002991 SIPDIS SIPDIS SINGAPORE PLEASE PASS A/S HILL FROM AMBASSADOR BOYCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: MANICHAEAN STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF THAILAND Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and introduction: The Thai political crisis has grown increasingly complicated, as multiple lawsuits work their way through the three high courts, charged by the King with finding a solution to the "mess" created by the "undemocratic" April 2 parliamentary elections. Thailand will spend most of 2006 in a protracted political crisis. I would like to take a break from our play-by-play reporting to look at the longer term prospects for Prime Minister Thaksin, and for Thai democracy, as a result of the crisis. ¶2. (C) At issue is not just who will be the next prime minister. Rather, this is a confrontation between different models for Thai society, playing out in the struggle between the beloved King, and all he represents, and the popular prime minister, and what he portends. Right now, the momentum is running against Thaksin, who may have to pay a high price for his hubris. But in the longer run, the King is old and the Thailand he represents is changing. Thaksin faces serious challenges right now, but he, or someone like him, is likely to be back. That said, we think that Thai democracy may be stronger, as a result of the event of this year, the next time around. End summary and introduction. THE KING -------------- ¶3. (C) On the one hand, the King represents traditional Thai values: respect for age and authority, moderation, modesty, and Buddhist values. He is the father of the people, his country is the Thailand of the rice farmers. He champions "sufficiency economy," in which people eschew debt and dreams of quick riches, and instead build their lives around honest labor and prudent investment. Pictures of him are everywhere in the country, iconographic images often showing him with the elderly, the poor, and children. ¶4. (C) On the other hand, to some the King represents an old and perhaps out-dated order. His periodic interventions in Thai politics may, as in 1992, have had a positive influence, but he has also supported military governments and condoned their human rights abuses in the past. Governments come and go, but the King has been there since before most Thai were born. Knowing this to some degree discourages the Thai from taking the training wheels off their democracy, building strong institutions and relying on them, instead of the monarch, to unify their nation and defend their rights. THE POLITICIAN -------------- ¶4. (C) On the one hand, Thaksin Shinawatra represents a modern political and economic order. He is decisive, not risk-averse, confident about himself and about Thailand's place in the world. He is the CEO of Thailand, Inc. His Thailand is best symbolized by Bangkok's many luxury shopping malls -- it's big! it's modern! everything here is imported and expensive! He advocates a mixture of capitalism (red in tooth and claw) with populism. He tells the rural people to do what he did -- borrow money, think big, leave behind your rural roots, play the system, and strike it rich. I did, and so can you. People don't put up his photos, but his Shin Corp. products are everywhere -- its cell phones in every shopping center and many pockets, its TV station beamed to every TV set. ¶5. (C) On the other hand, to some people Thaksin represents everything that is wrong with development in southeast Asia. He is greedy, corrupt, inherently undemocratic under his facade, (did we mention corrupt?),conceited and self--promoting. In his heart, he defers to no one -- not to age, not to Buddhist hierarchy, and not to the King. He introduced many positive aspects to Thai politics: his party had a platform that attracted rural voters, and he kept many of his promises to them, introducing the 30 baht health scheme and cheap credit for farmers. But the cost was high -- a Prime Minister who, in the end, disdains many of the key features of a democracy, such as a free press and civil society, and was eager to grasp power more openly and greedily than any civilian PM before him. THE STRUGGLE -------------- ¶6. (C) The conflict between these two political orders has played out under the surface for several years, as Thaksin's power grew. It is now being fought out in the daily headlines, as the Courts demolish the April parliamentary elections and attempt to dismantle Thaksin's political machine, starting with the Election Commission (EC). With the annulment of the elections, we may never know to what extent elements of the Electoral Commission actually abused their power. However, the EC decisions as they administered the April elections so effectively favored TRT -- whatever their reason -- that the EC lost all credibility. The refusal of the majority of the commissioners to resign, even in the face of the King's statement and the courts' direction, is almost unbelievable, and lends credence to suspicions that they are staying in order to prevent a new commission from finding the skeletons in their closet. ¶7. (C) Right now, the momentum is all on the side of the courts. Almost everyone here presumes that the EC will be forced to resign. The information about the role of the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in subverting the elections (by paying off microparties in order to avoid the mandatory 20 percent minimum in one-party races) will likely come out completely. If the leaked information available so far is correct, there is a very good prospect that TRT will be dissolved and the party leaders, including Thaksin, banned from politics for five years. SOME LIVES HAVE SECOND ACTS -------------- ¶8. (C) Of late, Thaksin has begun complaining that he was the victim of a palace coup and that he could not return as prime minister as long as this King lives. Melodramatics aside, we think that Thaksin may wind up taking a "political break" that is rather longer the year or so he anticipated. Even if Thaksin somehow successfully wards off the attacks on himself and his party and emerges as prime minister in the next government, he would be constrained by the newly-invigorated courts and press, and the knowledge that he is not as invincible as he thought. But Thaksin is only 57. The King is 78. Even if "the worst" happens -- Thaksin is banned for five years, or truly cannot return until the King dies -- he knows he has time to make a comeback. He has cultivated a good relationship with the Crown Prince, expected to take the throne upon his father's death. He is enormously rich. Thaksin cannot be counted out for the long term, whatever happens over the next few months. ¶9. (C) However, just as the King's Thailand of poor but honest rice farmers is slipping into history. the circumstances that allowed Thaksin so seize so much power are also changing, and have been altered by the current crisis. Many Thai intellectuals view the current crisis philosophically, and feel that the democracy here will be strengthened by what has happened. In particular, the vigor with which the courts have taken on the entrenched power of the ruling party is unprecedented and encouraging. The Peoples' Alliance for Democracy and opposition political parties have taken to the country road to try to bridge the perception gap on Thaksin and his policies between the city and the countryside, an important step to building broader support for real democracy. CONCLUSION -------------- ¶10. (C) There is always a price to be paid for change. The Thai have, amazingly, avoided bloodshed and are using constitutional means to solve an extremely complicated problem. True, they will be without a "real' government for most of 2006, and this will have implications, particularly for the economy. If this investment pays off, however, it means that the next wealthy politician who tries to arrogate excessive power to himself will face a tougher challenge, even if this King is no longer there to call him to account. BOYCE