THAILAND UPDATE: ELECTION DATE DEBATED, THAKSIN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002889 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: THAILAND UPDATE: ELECTION DATE DEBATED, THAKSIN TO RESUME DUTIES? Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Election Commission tried to set October 22 as the date for the new elections, but the leaders of the three courts rejected the date -- and the EC. They called on the remaining three election commissioners to resign, as commissioner General Charupat Ruangsuwan did on May 15. TRT says that that Thaksin is ready to resume his duties as caretaker prime minister, following his long "vacation" to the US, Europe and Bangkok's swankiest shopping mail and golf courses. The EC is likely to be the next victim of Thailand's political conflict.as pressure mounts for its resignation. End summary. ¶2. (U) The Election Commission (EC) proposed October 22 as the date for the new elections. The EC met on May 15 with representatives of the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party and smaller parties to seek their views on the appropriate date; the three main opposition parties and representatives of the courts refused to attend. The opposition parties maintain that the EC lacks the legitimacy to set a new election date, but also told the press that they had no objection to the date proposed. This date would give politicians time to change parties or register a new party. (Candidates must be members of a party for 90 days before they register as its candidates.) ¶3. (U) The leaders of the three courts (Constitutional, Administrative and Supreme) met on May 16 and rejected the October 22 election date on the technical grounds that the EC lacked a quorum at Monday's meeting. One of the four commissioners, General Charupat Ruangsuwan, was not present at the meeting to set the date, and reportedly has resigned from the EC. The courts again strongly urged the rest of the EC to resign as well. (If Charupat has resigned, the EC cannot function. It is supposed to have five members, but one died before the election. It now requires all four members for a quorum, and today's resignation would leave it with only three.) ¶4. (C) A Constitutional court judge told Polcouns on May 15 that the EC would surely be forced to step down eventually. He noted that there were several more court cases pending involving the EC, and these would provide the opportunity to ratchet up the pressure. This included the possibility of criminal charges against the election commissioners. One (somewhat dramatic) journalist contact said that EC chairman Wassana Puemlarp was under such stress that he might commit suicide. (Comment: an extreme prediction, but one that reflects the high level of very personal attacks particularly against the EC Chairman, who has vociferously defended all the EC's actions. End comment.) ¶5. (U) TRT held a party meeting today to discuss the upcoming elections. A TRT representative responded to the latest in the endless series of political lawsuits before Thai courts: the Lawyers' Council are suing Thaksin for failure to perform his duties. The Lawyers' Council claims that the PM is essentially AWOL, collecting a salary while not actually working. TRT replied that Thaksin was ready to return to work provided that it would not cause divisions in society. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The EC is likely to be the next casualty in Thailand's political warfare. The appointment of new commissioners will be complicated and time-consuming, and this may render moot any proposal to hold the election sooner than October, even if there is support for this option. Thaksin's opponents, meanwhile, continue to hammer away at every chink in the PM's armor, piling on lawsuits and other attacks. Thaksin has remained uncharacteristically quiet throughout, and TRT has been careful to show deference to the courts in line with the King's speech. This may get tougher for TRT, as the courts decisions seem to be consistently running against their interests. BOYCE