SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: PROMINENT ACADEMIC WARNS OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002096 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS, S/CT E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2026 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: PROMINENT ACADEMIC WARNS OF THE "INSECURITY INDUSTRY" REF: A. BANGKOK 1134 (CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS) ¶B. 05 BANGKOK 7573 (LABELING THE MILITANTS) Classified By: DCM Alexander A. Arvizu. Reason 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anand, a prominent academics and central member of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC),expressed concern that "conflict entrepreneurs" were making exaggerated assessments of the role of radical Islam in southern Thailand. Chaiwat did not believe there was a cohesive movement behind the attacks. We should not be surprised by the violence in the far South because of historic tension between the local population and the central government. Militants are attempting to destroy "shared cultural institutions" and drive a wedge between ethnic Malay-Muslims and ethnic Thais. The NRC has completed its final report -- which will include recommendations for judicial reform and non-lethal military tactics -- but will not release it until the political situation has stabilized. END SUMMARY BEWARE THE "INSECURITY INDUSTRY" ¶2. (C) Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anand, one of Thailand's most prominent academics, discussed southern Thailand during a seminar on conflict resolution at Chulalongkorn University. Chaiwat is the principal drafter of the National Reconciliation Commission's (NRC) report on the root causes of the conflict in the South. During the seminar, and in subsequent conversation with poloff, Chaiwat expressed concern that the USG was receiving over-hyped assessments of the nature of the conflict in the South from academics acting as "conflict entrepreneurs." Chaiwat said members of the "insecurity industry" were eager to focus on and exaggerate the organizational structure of militant groups in southern Thailand in an attempt to oversell links between transnational groups in Southeast Asia and southern insurgents. (COMMENT: Chaiwat wouldn't directly name the "conflict entrepreneurs" who "were taking advantage of the situation for their own benefit." He said the leaders were "a U.S. academic familiar with the region and an ethnic Indian academic from the region." END COMMENT) DON'T BLAME ISLAMIC EXTREMISM ¶3. (SBU) Chaiwat said violence in the South does not reflect the growth of extremist Islam. Muslims in Thailand had become more conservative over the last 30 years, as they had in the rest of Southeast Asia, but this does not mean they had become radicalized. Islam gives militants a stronger identity and a justification for recruitment and violence, but it is not the reason they are committing attacks. Local anger was based on injustices committed by the Thai state. "A kid that sees his parent hurt by a soldier is going to take up arms no matter what his religion." Attempting to "connect the dots" in the South to larger Muslim extremism is a dangerous exercise and does not explain the true nature of the conflict. VIOLENCE NOT BEING CARRIED OUT BY A "MOVEMENT" ¶4. (SBU) Chaiwat believed that there was not a cohesive movement that is carrying out attacks in the South. He described a network without a core leadership and no clear political program. He did not believe a militant leadership will step forward to negotiate because there was no clear evidence of a larger structure. Chaiwat estimates that there are about 700 hard-core militants. They are then able to plug into a wider, looser network of 10,000 sympathizers (reftel B). He cautioned, however, that the level of violence was exaggerated because criminal violence in the South was often blamed on insurgents by the media or police (reftel A). (NOTE: A locally hired Embassy employee recently had a personal experience with this phenomenon. Her cousin -- an HR manager at a factory in Songkhla province -- was shot and killed by unidentified gunman. Police quickly classified the shooting as "related to the insurgency" and promptly stopped investigating. However, our employee explained that her cousin was likely killed because of a job-related dispute from the factory where he worked. END NOTE) "THE SOUTH" IS NOT GOING AWAY ¶5. (SBU) Chaiwat suggested that Thailand and the international community must accept some level of violence in the South. Historically, there had always been violence in the region because of inherent tension between the local ethnic Malay-Muslim population and the central government given the historic local grievances, differences in language and culture, and the local population's close geographic, historic, and cultural links to Malaysia. The conflict will continue in some form no matter what policies the government adopts. The international community should not be "surprised" to see violence in far southern Thailand and should not overstate its implications. There will not be an absence of violence. The key for Thailand is to figure out how to manage the violence within the democratic process. "THEY DON'T GO TO EACH OTHERS WEDDINGS ANYMORE..." ¶6. (SBU) Like many observers of the South, Chaiwat warned of deteriorating relations between the ethnic Malay-Muslim and the Buddhist Thai communities in the far South. There are fewer "shared cultural institutions" in the South as the violence has driven a wedge between the communities. Recent attacks have shattered old taboos. The January 2005 killing of a Buddhist monk and the October 2005 attack on a Buddhist temple that killed a monk and two novices were deliberate attempts by the militants to destroy the cultural bonds between the Malay and Thai communities. "They don't go to each others weddings anymore." In the past, militants mainly targeted security officials and other symbols of the Thai state. Now, more and more civilians are being killed, a trend that will likely continue. The level of fear and mistrust between the communities will be hard to overcome. NATIONAL RECONCILIATION COMMISSION FINISHED...NOW WE WAIT ¶7. (SBU) Chaiwat is the principal drafter of the NRC's final report which will attempt to address the root causes of conflict in the South. The report has been completed but the NRC is waiting until the political crisis in Thailand is resolved before releasing its recommendations. Among other recommendations, the final report will call for the justice system to be strengthened to address local mistrust of the central government and for the Royal Thai Army to create a large and highly trained "unarmed" force that is capable of carrying out non-lethal, peacekeeping type missions. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: As the primary editor/drafter of the NRC's final report, Chaiwat has enjoyed unique access to the information available to the Commission about the conflict in southern Thailand. There might be some professional rivalry behind Chaiwat's barbs at some of his academic colleagues, but Chaiwat seeded genuinely concerned that the conflict in the South was misunderstood and that linkages were being asserted that were not entirely corroborated by hard evidence. END COMMENT BOYCE