RESPONSE TO APRIL 2 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001947 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: RESPONSE TO APRIL 2 ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) The USG should refrain from comment on the April 2 elections that could be used by either side to boost their competing claims. These elections are only one step in a complicated political contest that has been unfolding in recent weeks, and which will not be decided by the poll results alone. After the vote, each side will do its utmost to spin the results -- which are likely to be inconclusive at best -- to its advantage. PM Thaksin may consider whether to step down, thus perhaps defusing further crises, or he may attempt to stay on and plow ahead with plans to govern with a one-party parliament. Any public statement we make runs a serious risk of being used in ways we would not want. ¶2. (C) Beyond these political issues, there are several looming problems with the election process that will make it difficult to render a positive assessment in the near future: -- In order to undermine the boycott by the main opposition parties, several little-known parties submitted fraudulent candidate registrations. There are serious and unresolved accusations that the members of the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the Election Commission colluded in this fraud. -- There will be no systematic monitoring of any kind on April 2. The opposition parties are not running, so they cannot have agents in the polling places. Poll Watch, the respected independent poll monitoring NGO, is also boycotting. ¶3. (C) Under these circumstances, we are highly unlikely to be in a position to make an objective assessment of the fairness of the vote right after April 2. At a minimum, it would be inappropriate to comment on the election while the various claims of fraud are being considered -- a process that is likely to take weeks. ¶4. (C) We are consulting with other embassies to determine their position on post-election statements or anticipated letters of congratulation to the PM. So far, most have expressed reservations about making any public statement, especially immediately after the election (Japan, Australia, EU). They all recognize the risk of being drawn into the middle of the debate, and having any official statement misused by one side or the other. Among the embassies with which we have consulted, only the Canadians seem inclined to send a letter of congratulations. ¶5. (SBU) We propose the following guidance: -- We note that elections took place in Thailand on April 2. -- There are still a number of issues to be resolved in these elections, including allegations of fraud and constitutional questions. -- We believe that it would be inappropriate to comment until these issues have been settled according to Thai law. -- We would urge the Election Commission and all Thai authorities to work to resolve any allegations fairly. If there is any violence, we would add: -- We are particularly concerned by reports of violence in some locations. We urge the government to ensure that everyone expressing political views peacefully can do so without fear of intimidation or violence. BOYCE