PALACE REITERATES - LEAVE ME OUT OF THIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001872 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: PALACE REITERATES - LEAVE ME OUT OF THIS Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The King's Principal Private Secretary, Asa Sarasin, told the Ambassador that the King would not intervene to resolve the political impasse. The Palace believes that the situation can be resolved without the need for royal intervention, and anticipates that Thaksin will eventually be forced to step down. Asa thought that it was conceivable that the Constitutional Court might approve the seating of a Parliament made up of less than 500 members. While the Court is viewed as subject to undue influence from the PM, it would be difficult for it to approve the seating of a truncated Parliament, since the Court ruled back in 2000 that the Senate could not be seated until all 200 of its seats were filled. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) The Ambassador called on Asa Sarasin, the King's Principal Private Secretary, on March 28 to deliver an advance copy of the controversial biography of the King that is slated to be published in the United States in May. Asa discussed the Palace's concerns about the repeated calls from anti-Thaksin demonstrators for the King to intervene to resolve the current political impasse. Asa said that the King did not intend to intervene, since that would be a set back for Thailand's democratic development. The Palace believes that the situation can be resolved without the King's intervention. ¶3. (C) The election on April 2 will result in one of two outcomes, according to Asa. It appears impossible that all 500 constituencies will produce a legal winner; the widespread opposition to TRT in the South and a few other areas means that TRT is unlikely to win the required 20 percent of the vote in these constituencies, where it is the only candidate. The Constitutional Court will then have to rule on whether the Assembly can be convened and elect a new cabinet even though all the seats are not filled. TRT leaders argue that a truncated Parliament should be permitted to sit, elect a new government and carry out all the functions of the Parliament. TRT representatives have said that they expect the Court to rule in their favor on this point. If the Court supports TRT, Asa predicts, the demonstrations will continue unabated. Eventually, in his assessment, the PM will be forced to concede to the unending opposition, and step down. ¶4. (C) The other option is that the Constitutional Court will rule that the Parliament cannot convene until all the seats are filled. In this case, the caretaker government will continue in place for a period of time, but it will be a very clear signal to the PM that he would have to go. ¶5. (C) In either case, Asa said, the situation will be resolved without the need for royal intervention. It may take time, since the PM is "ignoring all the signals." But the Palace prefers this to the option of a premature and unnecessary interference in politics. ¶6. (C) Comment: Despite predictions of all-out efforts by TRT to make sure all of its candidates win on election day, most observers anticipate that perhaps 20 - 50 seats in the parliament will not be filled due to the 20 percent rule. The action will then presumably move to the Constitutional Court. Although the Constitutional Court has a shady reputation based on previous rulings and interpretations, it will have to contend with the precedent it set in the Senate elections in 2000. Then, over 80 races did not result in a certified winner, due to allegations of fraud and vote buying. The judges ruled that the 112 Senators who were elected could not hold a sitting to perform the duties of senators under the Constitution. The Senate was not seated until several rounds of by-elections resulted in winners in all 200 constituencies. If the Court makes an opposite ruling in this case, it is likely to bolster the PAD's argument that Thaksin is systematically undermining the rule of law, and stimulate further opposition. End comment. BOYCE