NSC SECRETARY GENERAL JOINS CHORUS: THAKSIN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001825 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: NSC SECRETARY GENERAL JOINS CHORUS: THAKSIN'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED REF: A. BANGKOK 01767 ¶B. BANGKOK 1667 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: NSC SecGen Winai told the Ambassador on March 24 that PM Thaksin had lost the support of the educated and middle class, and would have to step down. He pointed to the court decision yesterday against the planned privatization of a major utility as yet another blow to the PM. He complained that Thaksin had missed many opportunities to resolve the situation. He affirmed that the military was taking a neutral position. Gen. Winai's assessment is in accord with many of the other senior Thai figureswe have spoken to, but, like them, he cannot map out an exit strategy for the beleaguered PM. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met on March 24 with National Security Council Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul. After a brief discussion of refugee issues, Gen. Winai ushered everyone else from the room to discuss the current political situation. Gen. Winai pointed to yesterday's Administrative Court decision against the privatization of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) (septel) as yet another blow to the Prime Minister. Winai said that "100 percent" of the educated people and middle class were now convinced that Thaksin had to go. Unfortunately, Thaksin continued to listen to a cabal of advisors who were telling him to stay and fight. (Gen. Winai listed the usual suspects in the "hawks" group, except that he believed that DPM Wisanu had switched sides and was now looking for a way out.) ¶3. (C) Winai was concerned about the possibility of violence in the large opposition demonstration on Saturday when a large number of anti-Thaksin protesters are expected to march from the current site to an undisclosed location. DPM Chidchai, according to Winai, was eager to take a "law enforcement" approach, and had considered trying to close down the sit-in around Government House. Police reportedly tried to remove the tents sheltering the demonstrators earlier this week, but had met with such a hostile reaction that they had backed off. (Note: This is the first we have heard of this attempt, but we are not surprised that it failed. The demonstrators are cohesive, organized and disciplined. End note.) Winai echoed the praise by many Thais of Army Commander Sonthi, who pointed out that the demonstrators were behaving peacefully and responsibly. They are permitting traffic to pass along the main thoroughfares, and Bangkok residents are learning to live with the inconvenience. ¶4. (C) Winai said that Thaksin had missed several golden opportunities to defuse the tensions. He should have resigned when he dissolved Parliament, and let his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party contest the election without him. He missed another opportunity when the parties now boycotting had offered to participate in the election in exchange for concessions on the way constitutional reform would be managed. Thaksin had gotten bad advice from Parliament speaker Bhokin, (a lawyer, not a politician, Winai pointed out) who had steered the PM in the wrong direction. ¶5. (C) Winai affirmed that the military was "firmly on the sidelines." With the exception of some of Thaksin's class 10 colleagues, the military does not much like the PM. ¶6. (C) Comment: Winai, while not a Thaksin insider, is a highly-respected and professional soldier; his views are consistent with what we are hearing everywhere, that Thaksin has lost his legitimacy in the eyes of most of the educated, tax-paying class and traditional power centers, and that his staying power as Prime Minister has become untenable. However, like our other interlocutors, Winai could not predict Thaksin's next moves, or those of the growing forces arrayed against him. BOYCE