DPM SURAKIART SEES "WINDOW CLOSING" ON THAKSIN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001667 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: DPM SURAKIART SEES "WINDOW CLOSING" ON THAKSIN'S POLITICAL FUTURE REF: A. BANGKOK 1627 ¶B. BANGKOK 1602 ¶C. BANGKOK 1209 ¶D. 05 BANGKOK 7732 BANGKOK 00001667 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Thaksin has "only a few days" left to decide to step down and preserve his political future, according to DPM Surakiart. If the PM steps down, Surakiart sees several possible ways to manage the transition to new elections and political reform. If Thaksin does not step down voluntarily soon, Surakiart hopes that either the Army or the Privy Council will advise him to do so. End summary. ¶2. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai told the Ambassador on March 17 that time was running out for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. If he finds a way to step down soon, he might be able to preserve his political future and return to office some day. If not, it would mean the end of his political life. Surakiart said that the PM was surrounded by "hawks" giving him bad advice. Among his chief advisors: TRT MP Newin Chidchob, Natural Resources Minister Yongyuth, and Parliament speaker Bhokin, along with DPM Wisanu and the PM's Secretary-General Prommin. They are all telling him to keep fighting until the April 2 election. Surakiart sees this as a bad strategy, because the country cannot stand the continued stress, and because the essentially one-party election will not be able to produce a legal Parliament, due to the requirement for unopposed candidates to win 20 percent of the eligible voters. ¶3. (C) In Surakiart's view, Thaksin needs to step down now. If he does, he may be able to preserve his ability to return after a decent interval. Surakiart saw several possible alternatives. -- Thaksin announces he will step down within the next few days. The elections are pushed back to April 24, and the boycotting parties agree to run. In the interval, a committee of 'wise men' is set up to review the constitution and make recommendations for amendments. The new Parliament is elected and seated by May 24, then chooses ministers who will play their role in the King's celebration in early June. The new cabinet considers the reform recommendations the wise men have prepared. Under this scenario, there would be a new election, probably within the year, and Thaksin could run again. This latter factor makes this option less attractive to the opposition. -- Thaksin announces he will step down within the next few days. Article 7 is used to put in place an interim prime minister and cabinet; a committee of 'wise men' is formed to propose amendments to the constitution. This interim cabinet is in place for the celebrations in June. The election is held later in the summer, once the 'wise men' have completed their recommendations. Thaksin agrees he will not run in this election; the opposition agrees to participate. ¶4. (C) In Surakiart's view, if Thaksin did not agree to step down "within days," then either Privy Councilor Prem Tinsulanonda or Army Commander Sonthi should tell him he had to step down. According to Surakiart, both the King and the Queen want Thaksin to step aside. (Surakiart's wife is the daughter of the King's former principal private secretary and current Privy Councillor, giving him good insights into the Palace views.) ¶5. (C) Surakiart gave examples to show that Thaksin is getting bad advice. Parliament speaker Bhokin had pushed Thaksin to call the opposition's boycott bluff, and refuse their offer to participate in the elections under certain conditions (ref D). That had been Thaksin's missed opportunity to make the elections work for him. Newin had organized Thaksin's campaign swing this week through provinces along the Cambodian border. There, Thaksin managed to offend the sensibilities of many Thai with his elephant ride (ref B). His pose on the elephant's neck, with Newin at the elephant's leg, had mimicked iconic poses of legendary king Naresuan, and once again reminded people of the accusations that Thaksin sought to arrogate to himself attributes and authorities of the King. Surakiart criticized the PM's appearance last week on a popular talk show, saying that Thaksin was ill-prepared, badly dressed, and had not made good use of the opportunity. He added that Thaksin has never satisfactorily answered the questions about the Shin Corp sale, and TRT members have never gotten the guidance they needed from the PM's office to allow them to defend the BANGKOK 00001667 002.3 OF 002 PM effectively. ¶6. (C) Throughout Thaksin's tenure, his only really close advisor has been his wife. The people advising him now are not of true confidants. Surakiart said that Thaksin was a real visionary, who introduced important reforms to the Thai economy, but his arrogant and egocentric behavior alienated everyone he needed to work with to run the country. The Ambassador asked about the view that the current crisis represented the struggle of the 'old Bangkok elite' against the new political forces represented by Thaksin. Surakiart said that these forces had indeed faced off in 2001, but that was no longer the situation. It is not the 'old Bangkok elite' who oppose Thaksin, it is a "true mobilization of all those who matter in Bangkok" including both the old elite and new leaders. Surakiart pointed out that the protest coalition PAD is not a ragtag, fringe group; it is the new generation, many of whom were beneficiaries of TRT policies. ¶7. (C) Surakiart said that he was considering resigning, "to send a message" and to "save Thaksin from himself." He said that this had nothing to do with his candidacy for the UN SecGen job, but he was concerned about his country. ¶8. (C) Comment: Surakiart's assessment tracks closely with that of Minister of Education Chaturon (ref A) and some others who are part of Thaksin's administration. But like Chaturon, Surakiart is not in the PM's inner circle. It is difficult to assess how they are reading the PM's mood and prospects. The powers that be -- particularly the Palace and the Army -- continue to insist that both sides work together to arrive at some form of compromise. Under the current circumstances, this mean at the very least Thaksin stepping aside to "take a break" from politics, and possibly preserving the option to state a comeback some day. The key time frame becomes the next two weeks, between now and April 2, the scheduled election date. May Thais are openly questioning the wisdom of proceding with an expensive election that is incapable of producing a government with political legitimacy. We expect the pressure to grow considerably on Thaksin -- increasingly from his supporters -- to find a face-saving way to "take a break" before April ¶2. But at this point, no one knows what Thaksin will do -- and that probably includes Thaksin himself. end comment. BOYCE