THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: HUGE ANTI-THAKSIN RALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001575

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE: HUGE ANTI-THAKSIN RALLY
BOISTEROUS BUT PEACEFUL

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Alex A. Arvizu, reason 1.4 (b) (
d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Anti-Thaksin protesters gathered in
full-force this morning on March 14, in far greater numbers
than the demonstrations of March 5, and marched peacefully
from Sanam Luang to Government House. The People's Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) and the Dharma Army have both vowed to
remain there until PM Thaksin resigns. Thaksin's
tractor-riding supporters from the Northeast did not
materialize. In response to the morning's activities, the
Cabinet moved their meeting to the Health Ministry in
Nontaburi, in the outskirts of Bangkok. The Cabinet meeting
reportedly concluded with the elevation of Deputy Prime
Minister (DPM) Chidchai from third to first DPM. Meanwhile,
there are indications the Election Commission may disqualify
up to 200 candidates for the April 2 elections --
considerably more than had been anticipated. Thaksin,
meanwhile, is conveniently on the campaign trail in friendly
territory in northeast Thailand. End Summary.


THE REHEARSAL
--------------


2. (C) Some 60-80,000 anti-Thaksin demonstrators gathered
peacefully, but loudly, at Sanam Luang on March 13, the
evening before the march, to hear Sondhi and others recite
the familiar charges against PM Thaksin: looting the
country, selling out the country and undermining democracy.
The crowd was also treated to a Chinese opera spoof of
Thaksin, a poem addressed to Thaksin's children, urging them
to persuade their father to resign, and musical appeals for
action reminiscent of the 1960s. Most of the speeches
stressed the importance of showing the opposition's strength
on this morning's march to Government House.


THE SHOW
--------------


3. (C) A sizable crowd -- estimated at over 150,000
demonstrators -- marched from Sanam Luang, through the
Democracy Monument, to Government House at daybreak.
Peaceful and more sedate compared to their previous march
nine days ago, the crowd grew more passionate as the morning
wore on. Discipline and order characterized the large
procession, which stretched over a number of large
intersections but still obeyed its organizers to allow for
traffic to pass through. Ages ranging from the young to the
old, much of the crowd looked to be about middle-aged from
both the countryside and Bangkok itself. People waved Thai
flags along with anti-Thaksin paraphernalia in Thai, English
and Chinese high in the AIR and many smiled at pedestrians as
they passed by. Signage included the usual protesting of
Thaksin's lack of ethics, the Shin Corp sale, and the FTA --
but it should be noted that they are getting more coarse,
including curse words in English, an ocean of swastikas, and
even one with a picture of a man defecating on Thaksin's head.


4. (C) The police also appeared relaxed, and chatted amongst
each other. Though the crowd seemed twice as large as on
March 5, the number of police did not noticeably increase.
One of the police officers commented to an Embassy employee
that they were not worried, but "at ease."


WE'RE HERE TO STAY!...WE THINK
--------------


5. (C) Both the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
coordinator, Suriyasai Katasila, and Dharma Army's own
Chamlong have declared that the protesters will remain in
front of the Government House until PM Thaksin resigns. That
said, Suriyasai also noted that they would reevaluate the
situation daily to assess the plausibility of doing so.
(Comment: This is not the first time the PAD has promised to
remain at Government House. They had made a similar
announcement before the March 5 demonstrations, but then
decided to turn back and set up camp at Sanam Luang
afterwards. End Comment.)


WHERE ARE THE TRACTORS?
--------------


6. (C) Following yesterday's uncertainty regarding whether
pro-Thaksin supporters from TRT strongholds from the
Northeast would ride their tractors in to cut off the
protesters, today they were a "no show." There are varying
reports claiming that the Northeastern farmers either
suddenly withdrew their support for Thaksin after being
swayed by the PAD, or that the police or government asked
them to turn back. (Comment: We believe the latter to be
more likely. End Comment.)


AS FOR THE CABINET...
--------------


7. (C) Opting to skip the excitement at Government House, the
Cabinet reportedly convened its meeting at the Ministry of
Health in Nontaburi today. Among the topics for discussion
was the reported elevation of DPM Pol General Chidchai from
third to first Deputy PM. This would make Chidchai the
next-in-line successor to become Caretaker Prime Minister
should Thaksin for whatever reason step down. This decision
to promote Chidchai coincidentally coincides with unconfirmed
reports that Thaksin and the TRT have devised a "tactical
retreat" by which Thaksin would resign from premiership while
Chidchai would succeed him. The PAD has come out to reject
this arrangement as they claim that it would only make
Thaksin the "invisible hand" behind the scene. Another
theory holds that Thaksin wants Chidchai to be in charge in
Bangkok while Thaksin campaigns upcountry, and will have
Chidchai (who is in charge of the Ministry of Justice) impose
an emergency decree. (Note: This seems unlikely in the
current environment. End note.)


WHAT ABOUT THE ELECTION?
--------------


8. (SBU) According to some reports, a source at the Election
Commission (EC) noted that at least 200 election candidates
from the smaller, little-known political parties would most
likely be disqualified for the April 2 election. Most of
these candidates would be found ineligible because they would
have either: 1) been members of the parties they represent
for less than 90 days before the election, or 2) retained
membership of more than one political at the same time. This
figure at 200 is considerably higher than anticipated. If
true, it will add to TRT's pre-election woes.


MORE MONEY PROMISED
--------------


9. (C) In a separate decision, the Cabinet has just approved
a pay raise for State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) employees,
retroactive from October 2005. Though this proposal had been
made previously, it was originally turned down by the Cabinet
as they cited that a caretaker government should not make any
commitments. It should be noted that an estimated 30,000 SOE
employees joined the demonstrations today.


10. (C) On the farmer's front, Dr. Twatchai, the Secretary
General of the Thai Banker's Association (TBA) stated to
Econoff that the government will soon announce a
restructuring of small farmer debt in the amount of baht 2.2
billion (USD 56.1 million). This "Agriculture Rehabilitation
Fund" will be seen as another financial boost to rural
farmers.


COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Today's massive rally in front of Government House
was boisterous but peaceful. It's unclear how long they
intend to stay. But in a sense, the "showdown" at Government
House never took place; not only was Thaksin out of the
capital, but the cabinet itself met at a location in the
outskirts of Bangkok. The political machinations at both
sides continue to rivet the public's attention.
Interestingly, several TV stations broadcast live, extensive
coverage of today's events. End Comment.
BOYCE