THAI SNAP ELECTION REGISTRATION ENDS; A PREVIEW OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001475 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SNAP TRT SUBJECT: THAI SNAP ELECTION REGISTRATION ENDS; A PREVIEW OF THE CONTEST REF: BANGKOK 001301 Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE. REASON 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Candidate registration for the April 2 snap election has ended. Despite the three major opposition parties' boycott, seventeen smaller, unknown parties joined Prime Minister Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in registering. More importantly, these smaller parties have registered candidates to run against TRT in traditional opposition strongholds, which means that TRT candidates in those races will not have to win 20 percent of all eligible voters on election day--a scenario which threatens to block formation of a new government. That said, the main opposition parties that are boycotting the election are now challenging the credentials of the smaller parties and their candidates. The battle of the election lawyers begins now. End Summary. NOT SO-LATE REGISTRATION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Registration for the April 2 snap elections ended March 8. Eighteen parties, including Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, registered candidates (a full list follows comment below) for the 500 member House race. Only eight parties registered candidates for the 100 party list seats at stake; 938 candidates registered for the other 400 constituency seats at stake. Thai Rak Thai was the only party to register for all 100 party list and 400 constituency seats. The Democrat, Mahachon and Chat Thai parties (the only parties besides TRT in the just-disbanded parliament) held to their boycott and did not register any candidates. ¶3. (SBU) So who are these other parties? None held seats in the previous parliament. Only one other outfit--former Bangkok governor Samak's Prachakorn Thai--has any real history or reputation. The rest are personal parties for political gadflies or fringe causes. Most are running no more than a handful of candidates. Five parties that did not compete in the February 2005 elections are running candidates: Thamma Thippatai (Moral Democracy),Chiwit Thidikwa (Better Life),Sayam (Siam),Pracha Tippatai Kaona (Progressive Democratic),and Phoen Kasettakon Thai (Friends of Thai Agriculture). Of these, Pracha Tippatai Kaona and Sayam are the only two with more than a handful of candidates, with 37 and 28 candidates, respectively. THAI RAK THAI TRIES TO DODGE A BULLET -------------- ¶4. (C) As reftel noted, Thai Rak Thai's dominance in the April 2 vote is a foregone conclusion. The key variable is the presence of non-TRT candidates in the 38 constituencies where TRT received less than 20 percent of the vote in the February 2005 election. To recap: in the case of at least two candidates running for a constituent seat, a simple plurality wins. If a candidate runs unopposed in an electoral district, however, he or she must win at least 20 percent of eligible voters in that district. In the 2005 election, TRT drew less than 20 percent of the vote in 38 constituencies. But with the major opposition parties boycotting the contest, TRT will either have to beat their results in all 38 of those districts, or get one of the minor parties to run a candidate in those districts (thus making the 20 percent rule inapplicable). If even one constituency does not produce a valid winner, it would be impossible to seat the House and form a new government. If that were the case, a special by-election for the unfilled seats would be held a week later, and repeated ad infinitum until the seat is filled. (Note. In 2001, two rounds of back-to-back voting had to be held before a government could be formed. End Note) Throughout this process, Thaksin would remain caretaker Prime Minister, but any delay in forming a new government would only add to the political uncertainty. ¶5. (C) TRT is trying to sidestep this problem. Thai Rak Thai candidates will run unopposed in 131 out of the 400 constituencies, but our initial analysis indicates that these are "safe" districts, where the PM's party will easily get more than 20 percent of eligible voters. In fact--whether the product of TRT direction and funding or not--the small parties participating in the snap election seem to have more candidates in areas more difficult for Thaksin and TRT. In the Democrat party stronghold of the South, 225 candidates are running for 59 seats. In the central region (including Bangkok),360 candidates are competing for 130 seats. In Thaksin's home region in the North, however, only 115 candidates are running for 75 seats. BUT THE ELECTION DROPOUTS CRY FOUL -------------- ¶6. (C) The boycott bloc is trying to derail an easy TRT victory by challenging the small party candidates' qualifications. Some politicians are alleging that TRT has recruited unqualified people (either not members of their party for 90 days prior to registration or not tied to the province as the law requires) to run against them as strawmen. Democrat Party executive member Pichet Phanvichartkul delivered a letter to the Election Commission (EC) yesterday asking for an investigation of several parties and their candidates. EC Chairman Wassana Permlarp told reporters that he had ordered local election officials to conduct a thorough examination of all candidates. Septel will detail further Democrat Party allegations of TRT and small party collusion. COMMENT--WHEN LAWYERS ATTACK -------------- ¶7. (C) TRT is trying to avoid a painful series of run-off elections, but the boycott bloc's lawyers are pushing back. If the Democrat Party and their cohorts can disqualify even a handful of candidates in the South or Bangkok, they could prolong the voting process, resulting in prolongation of the stalemate. That said, this scenario supposes that TRT (and the smaller parties) have indeed cut corners with their candidates and registration documents. We can expect a number of technical legal challenges in the ensuing days. Parties Registered for the April 2, 2006 snap election: Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) 100 party list, 400 constituency candidates Kasettakon Thai (Thai Agriculture) 7 party list, 20 constituency candidates Phalang Prachahon (Force of the People) 5 party list, 9 constituency candidates Prachakon Thai (Thai Citizens) 27 party list, 82 constituency candidates Phaen Din Thai (Land of Thai) 5 party list, 120 constituency candidates Thai Chuay Thai (Thais Help Thais) 13 party list, 66 constituency candidates Phattana Chatthai (Thai National Development) 5 party list, 30 constituency candidates Thamma Thippatai (Moral Democracy) 5 party list, 4 constituency candidates Kasikon Thai (Thai Farmers) 0 party list, 1 constituency candidates Kritthai Mangkhong (Thai Solidarity Might) 0 party list, 2 constituency candidates Chiwit Thidikwa (Better Life) 0 part list, 2 constituency candidates Sayam (Siam) 0 party list, 28 constituency candidates Kit Sangkhom (Social Action) 0 party list, 9 constituency candidates Pracha Thippatai Kaona (Progressive Democracy) 0 party list, 37 constituency candidates Khon Kho Plot Ni (Debt-Relief Seekers) 0 party list, 113 constituency candidates Phoen Kasettakon Thai (Friends of Thai Agriculture) 0 party list, 8 constituency candidates Phalang Tham (Force of Dharma) 0 party list, 3 constituency candidates Rak Phaen Din Thai (Thai Land Conservation) 0 party list, 3 constituency candidates BOYCE