C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001346

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH SNAP
SUBJECT: BANGKOK READIES ITSELF FOR TWO OPPOSING WEEKEND
POLITICAL RALLIES

REF: BANGKOK 01301

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Two large political rallies are scheduled to
take place in Bangkok's Sanam Luang royal plaza over the
weekend. On March 3, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and
his Thai Rak Thai party are preparing to mobilize 200-300
thousand supporters, including many who will be brought in
from outlying provinces, to listen to the Prime Minister's
explanation for calling for new elections. The People's
Alliance for Democracy (PAD) plans to hold another
anti-Thaksin rally on March 5. There are concerns that
remnants of the Thaksin supporters might clash with PAD
supporters at the Sunday night rally. Ambassador and other
Embassy officials have conveyed concern about potential
violence to leaders of both sides; although we have received
encouraging assurances that both sides are committed to
peaceful methods, there is potential for conflict. Party
registration ended on March 3 for the April 2 elections. Thai
Rak Thai was the only major party to register candidates,
alongside six smaller parties. Singapore sources have told
us that Singapore is contemplating pulling out of the Shin
Corp deal. END SUMMARY.

RALLIES SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY


2. (C) All eyes will be on Bangkok's politically charged
Sanam Luang royal plaza this weekend as Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra and the People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) mobilize their supporters to show up in large numbers
at opposing rallies on Friday and Sunday. First up will be
the Prime Minister and his Thai Rak Thai party which predict
that between 200 and 300 thousand supporters will show up
from all over Thailand to listen to the PM "bare his heart"
and discuss his reasons for dissolving parliament and holding
new elections. The Prime Minister is also expected to roundly
condemn the three major opposition parties for sticking to
their decision to boycott the national elections, currently
scheduled to be held on April 2. TRT officials say their
rally should end around 10 in the evening. Arsa Sarasin, the

King's Principal Private Secretary, told the Ambassador that
the Prime Minister had assured the King that his speech would
be positive and calm. Crowds began arriving in the early
afternoon of March 3, including hundreds of vans arriving
from the up-country provinces, Thaksin's main base of
support.


3. (C) The Democrat Party canceled their scheduled Saturday
rally, although they planned to hold two anti-Thaksin
demonstrations in the southern provinces of Pattani and
Satun. The PAD plans to hold another rally in Sanam Luang on
Sunday, March 5, which coincides with the "deadline" they
have given the Prime Minister to resign. There is some
concern that remnants of the pro-Thaksin rally could clash
with participants from the Sunday rally. There are also
concerns that the Sunday crowd might move on to Government
House or another location if the deadline expires without a
resignation. A Royal Thai Navy Admiral (and prep school
classmate of Thaksin) told the DCM on March 2 that the
situation will be harder to control if the protesters leave
Sanam Luang. He added that the unstable political situation
"can't go on forever" and that things would have to be
settled well before June, when Thailand will celebrate the
60th anniversary of the King's accession to the throne. A
number of foreign dignitaries are expected to visit Thailand
at that time.

EMBASSY OFFICIALS CONVEY CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL VIOLENCE


4. (C) Embassy officers have consistently urged RTG officials
and protest leaders to keep demonstrations peaceful. On
March 3, Ambassador Boyce reiterated this message to Foreign
Minister Kantathi as well as a senior adviser to the Prime
Minister. Both officials agreed and told the Ambassador that
the RTG had no interest in provoking a conflict. PolCouns
relayed similar concerns to a senior PAD representative, who
assured her that the PAD was aware of the need to keep things
peaceful and avoid confrontation.

PARTIES IN PLAY


5. (U) With the Democrat, Chart Thai and Matichon parties
planning to stay at home on election day, Thai Rak Thai is
certain to dominate any election, possibly winning all 500
seats in Parliament -- assuming the election actually takes
place. Opposition parties had until today to register their
party lists to participate in the April election. They did
not. Other than TRT, only six relatively insignificant or
unknown parties successfully handed in their paperwork. The
most well-known of these is the Prachakorn Thai Party, led by
the controversial ex-governor of Bangkok, Samak Sundaravej.
Prachakorn Thai plans to contest parliamentary seats in all
400 nationwide constituencies. While the vast majority of
these candidates probably have little chance of winning,
their participation is significant because Thai law has
different rules for winning elections in which a candidate
runs unopposed (Reftel A). At the registration site March
2-3, some followers of the smaller parties waved TRT banners
alongside those of their own parties. At least three other
small parties which had reportedly been interested in
registering were not among those announced on Friday.

PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN TELLS BOYCOTTING PARTIES TO GO TO BURMA


6. (U) During an appearance at the National Stadium to
officially register TRT for the April election, Prime
Minister criticized the three boycotting opposition parties
and said that they should take a lesson from imprisoned
Burmese Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi who was clearly
"dying to have an election in Burma."

SHIN CORP DEAL IN TROUBLE?


7. (C) Post has heard repeated rumors, including from the
Singapore DATT (Strictly Protect) that the Singapore
Government (GOS) is increasingly uncomfortable with the
negative publicity associated with the deal between Shin Corp
and the state-owned Temasek company and that GOS may consider
canceling the deal with Shin Corp. This represents a shift
in sentiment. As recently as February 8, a Singapore Poloff
told us at a reception that Singapore was prepared to weather
the negative publicity behind the deal.

BANGKOK STILL LIKES THAKSIN BUT DO THEY TRUST HIM?


8. (U) Bangkok is universally cited as the primary source of
opposition to the ruling Thai Rak Thai party. However, a
poll published by the well-regarded Assumption University
recently revealed that a plurality of Bangkok voters- 44
percent- would vote for TRT in the upcoming election, versus
30 percent who would not. 57 percent said that they would
vote in the upcoming election despite the opposition's call
for a boycott, versus 25 percent who were unsure and 18
percent who said they would honor the boycott. When asked if
the poll would be "free and fair", fully half of respondents
said they were not or not quite confident that they would be.


9. (C) COMMENT. No one really expects trouble at the
pro-Thaksin rally this evening-- a huge gathering that will
be covered fully by the Thai media and which will be used by
the embattled PM to bolster his case that the real opposition
to him is confined to disgruntled pockets of the Bangkok
elite. The key on Sunday will be whether the peaceful nature
of the anti-Thaksin protests will continue to hold. We have
been very forthright about the need to avoid violence and
have received encouraging reassurances from all quarters.
That being said, there is some nervousness about Sunday and
beyond. END COMMENT.
BOYCE