MASSIVE PROTEST IN SANAM LUANG - POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001180 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: MASSIVE PROTEST IN SANAM LUANG - POLITICAL OPPOSITION ADRIFT REF: BANGKOK 1091 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Late on Friday, February 24, Prime Minister Thaksin dissolved the Lower House of Parliament and announced snap elections to take place on April 2. While the opposition political parties vacillate in their response to Thaksin's latest maneuver, the demonstration led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) drew well over 100,000 peaceful protesters to Bangkok's massive Sanam Luang two days later. Thaksin, sensing weakness on the part of the opposition parties, will try to drive a wedge between them and the street demonstrators. The protesters vow to remain in Sanam Luang until Thaksin resigns, with or without the help of the political parties. End Summary. OUT OF MY HOUSE! AND PLEASE COME AGAIN. ¶2. (SBU) On Friday evening, February 24, after an audience with the King, PM Thaksin announced that he was dissolving the lower House of Parliament and calling snap elections for April 2. Thaksin is confident that he retains enough support in the provinces to go to the polls in April and return victorious and with a renewed mandate - thus silencing the critics who have been emboldened by his clumsy actions in the Ample Rich controversy. ¶3. (U) Not taking victory for granted, Thaksin was out campaigning over the weekend promoting his latest populist programs. On Sunday, Thaksin traveled to Lat Krabang to hand over housing units to low-income families. At the same time, he continues to promote his latest initiatives to cut taxes and raise salaries for government workers. Nevertheless, tensions within the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) are evident. Disaffected former political "kingmaker" Sanoh Thienthong finally announced his resignation from TRT, citing Thaksin's decision to dissolve Parliament as an effort to evade real reform. Sanoh and three other of his "Wang Nam Yen" faction members (all relatives of Sanoh) announced their resignation on Saturday. They will not participate in the April 2 snap election. 100,000 PLUS DESCEND ON SANAM LUANG ¶4. (U) The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) continues to gather steam in its effort to drive Thaksin out of office. Sunday, February 26 saw the largest crowd yet assemble in the historically significant Sanam Luang - site of 
anti-government rallies that ushered out unpopular governments in the 1970s and 1990s. As has become customary, estimates of crowd size varied dramatically. By our estimates, more than 100,000 were almost certainly in attendance at the evening's high point. Highlighting the disparity between reality and what is being reported via the Thai mass media, one TV channel reported that a mere 5,000-10,000 were in attendance. ¶5. (U) A long list of speakers took the stage to harangue Thaksin with the usual laundry list of complaints - the Shin Corp. sell-off, allegations of tax evasion, the US-Thai FTA, corruption in mega-projects, and now the decision to dissolve Parliament. Though nothing much new was said, the list of groups and influential persons joining the movement continues to grow. Chamlong Srimuang, a former military officer and spiritual leader of the 1992 movement, and his Santi Asoke/Dharma Army were highly visible with their blue uniforms, setting up tents and facilities for the long-haul. The protesters vow to remain in Sanam Luang until Thaksin resigns from office. As the first night's activities drew to a close at around 2:00am, The Nation newspaper estimated that about 10,000 people remained camped out. OPPOSITION PARTIES ADRIFT IN INDECISION ¶6. (SBU) Though the dissolution of Parliament was one widely anticipated option for Thaksin, the political opposition parties were caught without a clear, much less coordinated response. The Democrats initially announced that they would boycott the snap election, but when Chat Thai Party declined to follow suit, the Democrats reversed their decision. (Note: Democrat Party elder Chuan Leekpai was reportedly opposed to a boycott and pressed Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to reverse the Democrat's initial position. End note.) After two days of meetings between the major opposition parties (the Democrats, Chat Thai and the much smaller Mahachon),the opposition finally came out with a joint response that seemed to please no one. The political parties now say that they will participate in the snap elections as long as Thaksin agrees to sign a pact promising, in ambiguous terms, to amend the Constitution. ¶7. (C) Reaction to this "decision by committee" was predictable. The opposition parties' proposal infuriated the protest leaders whose pressure tactics had forced Thaksin to call snap elections in the first place. Key PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila accused the opposition parties of abandoning the people and siding with Thaksin for their own benefit. Another leader, Phittaya Wongkul stated that the protest movement could no longer rely on politicians or the "political sector" to accomplish its goal. (Comment: Many will view the politicians as driven first by their desire to hang on to their salaries and perks as MPs. One hundred of the 500 seats are awarded on a "party list" basis, which means that the top members of the major parties are virtually guaranteed a seat. And they're the ones making the decision. End comment.) ¶8. (C) Thaksin initially ruled out the opposition's proposal for a pact to cover political reform, noting that he had already asked the country's university rectors to review the Constitution and suggest amendments. However, Thaksin quickly sensed an opportunity to drive a wedge between his opponents; on Monday, February 27, Thaksin announced his agreement to go along with a variation of the pact proposed by the opposition parties. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Thaksin has regrouped momentarily and chosen the path that offers the best prospects for his political survival. The popular movement to oust the Prime Minister that started with Sondhi in Lumpini Park, has broadened and may still be gaining momentum. For their part, the political opposition parties have effectively remained on the sidelines throughout the mounting crisis. By reversing their original inclination to boycott the April 2 election and giving Thaksin an escape hatch, the opposition parties undermine the popular movement that has posed a serious threat to Thaksin's administration. In ensuing days, we will likely see renewed pressure by the protesters (led by prominent veterans of the dissident movement) on the opposition parties to rectract their "sell out." Thaksin will likely try to seize the high ground by promising vague reforms, all the while gearing up the TRT machinery for the election campaign ahead. Although the protesters in Sanam Luang are maintaining their peaceful vigil for now, they may find that circumstances compel them to take a more confrontational stance vis-a-vis Thaksin. BOYCE