CHALLENGE TO THAKSIN -- ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001091 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH TRT SUBJECT: CHALLENGE TO THAKSIN -- ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE REF: BANGKOK 1034 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY : Thaksin is in serious trouble. The forces against him are mounting, and he is showing signs of strain. Every day brings more bad news: yesterday, former military dictator Suchinda advised Thaksin to dissolve Parliament. Cabinet ministers are openly showing concern. MPs from the PM's own party are beginning to call for his resignation and pundits are considering his possible successors. Opposition politicians are concerned that Thaksin may resort to the arrest of his opponents, and that extremists in the opposition may launch violent provocations at Sunday's protest rally. We are not predicting that either of those things will happen, but these fears show the high level of political agitation here. Thaksin does not appear to have a strategy to counter the opposition, other than trying to buy time with the call for a special joint session of parliament starting March 6, and buy loyalty with more money for local officials salaries and students. We believe that unless he comes up with a more effective strategy quickly, the most likely outcomes are the dissolution of Parliament, or even his resignation. This could happen soon, or it could take weeks to play out. The fact that we are even speculating on these outcomes indicates how fast this situation is moving. End Summary. I CAN DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador spoke briefly to a visibly beleaguered Thaksin at the state banquet for the King and Queen of Spain on February 22. Asked about the prospects for a dissolution of Parliament, Thaksin replied in an agitated fashion, "I can dissolve Parliament; I'm ready to do that." Other ministers are candidly expressing their concern. Deputy Prime Minister Suwat Liptapanlop told the Ambassador that everyone was worried about Sunday. Another Deputy PM, Visanu Kreuangam, privately told the Ambassador that Sunday is important, but whether the crowds stay on after Sunday and don't disperse is even more so. Members of the PM's ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party are inching toward the door; a few have publicly called for Thaksin to step down, and others are speaking 'off the record' to the press. ¶3. (C) Every day brings more bad news for the Prime Minister. Today's story: Former military ruler General Suchinda, ousted in the democracy demonstrations of 1992, told the press that Thaksin should dissolve Parliament. Suchinda resisted calls for his own resignation until he was forced to step down following a bloody military crackdown on demonstrators and the King's intervention. He said that the current government should learn from his experience. DRINKS FOR ALL MY FRIENDS -------------- ¶4. (C) Thaksin's maneuvers to regain his footing seem woefully inadequate. TRT announced pro-government rallies on March 3 in Bangkok and around the country. He called for a special joint session of Parliament to discuss issues of concern to society, including "corruption" and "free trade agreements." Officials have been coy about whether the specifics of the controversial Shin Corp deal would even be fair game for discussion. The Feb. 21 Cabinet meeting announced a generous assortment of hand-outs: salary increases for local officials at the village and district level, the allocation of 200 million Baht to fund summer employment for students, and a new Educational Loan Fund for university students. ¶5. (C) And for those he can't buy off? A prominent opposition senator warned us today that Thaksin was considering issuing an emergency order calling for the arrest of opposition leaders. (Comment: We don't believe that Thaksin is actually foolish enough to try this in the end, even if he may be tempted by the option. Further, we don't believe that the security forces would carry out such an order if it were given. The mere fact that such a story is circulating and is given credence by experienced political figures, however, shows how heated the political environment is getting. End Comment.) The senator also raised concerns about the extreme elements in the anti-Thaksin opposition, and worried that they might resort to violence in an effort to provoke the government into a violent response which would galvanize public opposition to the PM. LIMITED OPTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) One of the most striking developments is the sudden shift in political discourse. "Everyone" is talking about two options: should Thaksin resign or should he dissolve Parliament? Pundits are already handicapping his likely replacement as PM. Almost overnight, the option of Thaksin riding it out and serving out his term seems to have disappeared from discussion. Of course, most of Thailand's citizens don't join in this conversation, which is dominated by the Bangkok elite. It's not yet clear how strongly the masses may feel about supporting the PM. A big turnout by Thaksin supporters -- one that arises from genuine support, and not TRT-funded rent-a-crowds -- could boost the PM and inspire greater unity and fighting spirit in the TRT. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Almost anything could happen now. Thaksin is no dope, and he is surely working to shore up his own support, including in ways that we cannot see. In any case, Thaksin has been too slow to recognize that he faces a serious challenge. Hubris is just part of his nature, and may turn out to be his tragic flaw. It is our best assessment that the rally on Sunday will be peaceful. The opposition does not need to resort to provocations -- things are going pretty well for them right now without that. The police appear committed to continue to behave correctly, as they have during the past rallies. They do not want to be stuck holding the bag for Thaksin if there is violence. If the Prime Minister does not have a better plan, we believe that the dissolution of Parliament or his forced resignation are the most likely outcomes -- this could happen tomorrow, or it could take weeks to play out. BOYCE