WHEN POLITICS AND COINCIDENCE COLLIDE: MALI'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 001433 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR PINS PGOV ML SUBJECT: WHEN POLITICS AND COINCIDENCE COLLIDE: MALI'S THIRD LARGEST PARTY ENDORSES ATT REF: BAMAKO 01361 Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(C) Summary: Mali's third largest party, the Union for the Republic and Democracy (URD),has endorsed the re-election bid of President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT). By casting its lot with ATT rather than running a presidential candidate of its own, the URD ended speculation that party founder Soumaila Cisse, a political heavyweight who finished second to ATT in 2002, might reverse his decision to sit out the 2007 campaign. Cisse has passed the period since his defeat as president of Commission of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). With his term coming to a close, ATT reportedly lobbied UEMOA to give Cisse a second four year term, an outcome that may formally come to light during a Heads of State conference in Senegal in January. While no one has yet overtly linked the URD's endorsement with ATT's efforts to ensure a second UEMOA mandate for Cisse, the timing of the two events was likely no coincidence. End Summary. -------------- A Personal Quid Pro Quo -------------- 2.(C) On December 2 the URD chose to endorse ATT's re-election bid rather than run a candidate of its own for the 2007 presidential election. The announcement ended speculation that URD founder Soumaila Cisse, who was ATT's second round opponent during the 2002 presidential election, was reconsidering his decision to sit out the 2007 campaign. It also ended several months of negotiations between the URD, ADEMA and ATT over political support in return for Ministerial posts in a new ATT government. The URD, ADEMA and ATT have been working since September to hammer out a joint political "platform," now known as the Alliance for Democracy and Progress (ADP),designed to catapult ATT to victory in 2007. The URD, ADEMA and 12 other political parties officially signed the ADP document - which appears to be nothing more than a statement of mutual support for ATT's re-election - on December 8. 3.(C) The URD originally intended to join the ADP in November but hesitated following ADEMA vice-president Soumeylou Boubey Maiga's decision to defy his own party's leadership and enter the presidential race (reftel). Maiga's defection from ADEMA, and the support he has subsequently received from other prominent ADEMA members, have called into question ADEMA's ability to deliver for ATT in 2007. Led by Cisse and URD president and former prime minister Younoussi Toure, the URD nonetheless decided to uphold its end of the bargain. After creating the ADP on December 8, member parties selected Younoussi Toure as the ADP president and spokesperson. 4.(U) In an apparent response to the fractures within ADEMA, both Cisse and Toure urged URD delegates to follow the official party line. "My main concern was and still remains," Cisse told his followers, "the cohesiveness and unity of the party." According to the URD's communication director, Modibo Camara, the decision also sent a message to Rally for Mali (RPM) leader and National Assembly president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK). "We had several bitter experiences with that party," said Camara in reference to past URD-RPM alignments. Camara said IBK's endorsement of ATT over Cisse during the second round of the 2002 presidential election also figured into the URD's calculations for 2007. 5.(C) Perhaps the single most important factor influencing the URD's decision, however, was a call from ATT to UEMOA on Cisse's behalf. ATT recently asked UEMOA to grant Cisse a second four year term as president of the UEMOA commission. According to one report, Cisse's chances of a second term are strong thanks to ATT's backing. Mali apparently intends to formally request a new mandate for Cisse during a Head of State summit scheduled for January in Senegal. -------------- Comment -------------- 6.(C) Soumaila Cisse is one of Mali's political heavy-weights, having received more presidential votes in 2002 than IBK. Due to his position with the UEMOA, however, Cisse has spent most of the time since the 2002 elections at the commission's headquarters in Ouagadougou rather than in Mali maintaining his political networks and connections. Many believe Cisse is ATT's preferred successor for 2012, provided ATT prevails in 2007. Cisse and the URD's decision BAMAKO 00001433 002 OF 002 to join ADEMA and support ATT in an apparent deal for ministerial posts (and four more years for Cisse with UEMOA) is not without risks, however. The URD and ADEMA apparently already provided ATT with a short-list of potential ministers several months ago. It remains unclear whether ATT intends to see this part of his deal with ADEMA and the URD through. ATT could conceivably use ADEMA's on-going implosion as a pretext for continued inaction in regard to the allotment of new ministerial positions. Disaffected members of the URD could also follow Boubey Maiga's example and strike out on their own, taking large portions of the party with them. McCulley