PRESIDENT ALIYEV TO ATTEND KIEV GUAM SUMMIT; GOAJ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000734

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR PBTS ECIN AJ GG UP MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV TO ATTEND KIEV GUAM SUMMIT; GOAJ
FOCUSED ON ESTABLISHING FORMAL GUAM STRUCTURES


Classified By: A/DCM Joan Polaschik, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. President Aliyev will attend the GUAM Summit
in Kiev, according to his foreign policy advisor, Novruz
Mammadov. Mammadov believes Ukraine will use the summit to
stake out a leadership role in the region. Russia, he
believes, sees GUAM as a rival to the CIS and will try to
leverage the August CIS summit to reassert its own leadership
in the region - although Georgia and Moldova may not even
attend. At the working level, the Azerbaijan MFA sees the
establishment of GUAM as a true international organization
with a secretariat and a budget as a major goal of the
summit. At the summit, the MFA also hopes to highlight the
resolution of regional conflicts, economic cooperation
(including energy) and progress on GUAM's major projects -
the Virtual Law Enforcement Center and the Trade and
Transport Facilitation project. The GOAJ is pleased with
GUAM's progress and appreciates the past and current support
of GUAM by the United States. END SUMMARY.

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MAMMADOV: GUAM, CIS ABOUT REGIONAL LEADERSHIP
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2. (C) In a May 17 meeting with Acting DCM, Presidential
Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov confirmed that
President Ailyev will attend the May 22-23 summit in Kiev.
Mammadov noted that the Ukrainian Government wants the summit
to focus on democracy; in his view, that will be fine.
However, the Azerbaijani MFA has not yet briefed President
Aliyev on its views of and plans for the summit. Mammadov
was not sure what Azerbaijan's final position would be on any
of the GUAM issues, or in which meetings President Aliyev
would participate. Mammadov commented that Ukrainian
President Yushchenko seems to be using GUAM as a vehicle to
stake out his leadership role among the countries formerly
part of the Soviet Union.


3. (C) Mammadov said that Vice President Cheney's recent
remarks in Latvia and Kazakhstan had made it clear that there
is now a rivalry between the U.S. and Russia for influence in
the former Soviet Union. The strengthening of regional
organizations such as GUAM, Mammadov said, will only
exacerbate the Russians' concerns, as a strengthened GUAM
with close ties to the U.S. inevitably will be seen as a
rival to the CIS. Mammadov believes the upcoming CIS summit
in August will be extremely interesting, predicting that
Russian President Putin will employ his usual, low-key and
friendly style at the summit to try to sway regional leaders
to his side. "We are brothers," Mammadov said Putin
frequently tells the former Soviet leaders. Mammadov
speculated the Georgian and Ukrainian "brothers," however,
may not be present at the next CIS summit. Turning to
another aspect of regional cooperation, Mammadov predicted
that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will sign the long-awaited
Inter-Governmental Agreement on cross-Caspian oil transport
at a regional summit in Kazakhstan on June 19.

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MFA PRIORITIES: MAKING GUAM A REAL ORGANIZATION
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4. (C) In a separate May 16 meeting with Emboff, Galib
Israfilov of the MFA's security issues directorate said that
Azerbaijan's first goal for the summit is to complete the
process of transforming GUAM from a regional grouping into an
actual international organization. A formal charter for GUAM
will be signed and a formal secretariat, to sit in Kiev, will
be established. The secretariat will employ both
international and local staff and have its own budget.
Israfilov believes that this will help relieve the pressure
on national foreign ministries, which have many issues to
worry about besides GUAM. For the moment, Israfilov said,
GUAM will continue to use both Russian and English as its
official languages. While many in the organization would
like to shift over entirely to English, said Israfilov, the
level of English-language proficiency in the four member
countries is not quite high enough to do so yet. Israfilov
said that he understands GUAM will now be referred to as the
"Organization for Democracy and Development - GUAM". This
will allow the organization to have a more descriptive name
while not losing the name-recognition "GUAM" has built up.

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OTHER PRIORITIES: REGIONAL CONFLICTS, ECONOMICS, PROJECTS
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5. (C) Another priority for Azerbaijan, said Israfilov, is
engaging GUAM on the settlement of regional conflicts. The

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strength of GUAM is its unanimity, said Israfilov. Although
each case is different, he said, each of the GUAM members has
some experience with "separatism" and can have a broad
understanding of the issue. Other issues on Azerbaijan's
agenda include continuing the Virtual Law Enforcement Center
(VLEC) project and the Trade and Transport Facilitation (TTF)
project. Part of TTF involves the harmonizing of standards
and tariffs, said Israfilov, and this too will be discussed
at the summit. Finally, said Israfilov, the GOAJ wants to
discuss ways the GUAM members can cooperate on economic and
energy issues (Israfilov did not provide specifics). There
will also be a meeting of the GUAM Youth Forum, and
discussions of health issues and cultural exchages.


6. (C) Israfilov remarked that GUAM has certainly grown over
the past few years and that Ukraine's attitude has changed
over that time, to the point where it is much more supportive
and active than it was before. Israfilov expressed thanks
for the support the United States has given GUAM over the
years. This support was crucial in getting the organization
off the ground, he said. Emboff replied that the United
States continues to support GUAM and its member states
deserve credit as well for GUAM's concrete progress.
HYLAND