PRESIDENT ALIYEV TO ATTEND KIEV GUAM SUMMIT; GOAJ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000734 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 TAGS: PREL PINR PBTS ECIN AJ GG UP MD SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV TO ATTEND KIEV GUAM SUMMIT; GOAJ FOCUSED ON ESTABLISHING FORMAL GUAM STRUCTURES Classified By: A/DCM Joan Polaschik, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. President Aliyev will attend the GUAM Summit in Kiev, according to his foreign policy advisor, Novruz Mammadov. Mammadov believes Ukraine will use the summit to stake out a leadership role in the region. Russia, he believes, sees GUAM as a rival to the CIS and will try to leverage the August CIS summit to reassert its own leadership in the region - although Georgia and Moldova may not even attend. At the working level, the Azerbaijan MFA sees the establishment of GUAM as a true international organization with a secretariat and a budget as a major goal of the summit. At the summit, the MFA also hopes to highlight the resolution of regional conflicts, economic cooperation (including energy) and progress on GUAM's major projects - the Virtual Law Enforcement Center and the Trade and Transport Facilitation project. The GOAJ is pleased with GUAM's progress and appreciates the past and current support of GUAM by the United States. END SUMMARY. -------------- - MAMMADOV: GUAM, CIS ABOUT REGIONAL LEADERSHIP -------------- - ¶2. (C) In a May 17 meeting with Acting DCM, Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov confirmed that President Ailyev will attend the May 22-23 summit in Kiev. Mammadov noted that the Ukrainian Government wants the summit to focus on democracy; in his view, that will be fine. However, the Azerbaijani MFA has not yet briefed President Aliyev on its views of and plans for the summit. Mammadov was not sure what Azerbaijan's final position would be on any of the GUAM issues, or in which meetings President Aliyev would participate. Mammadov commented that Ukrainian President Yushchenko seems to be using GUAM as a vehicle to stake out his leadership role among the countries formerly part of the Soviet Union. ¶3. (C) Mammadov said that Vice President Cheney's recent remarks in Latvia and Kazakhstan had made it clear that there is now a rivalry between the U.S. and Russia for influence in the former Soviet Union. The strengthening of regional organizations such as GUAM, Mammadov said, will only exacerbate the Russians' concerns, as a strengthened GUAM with close ties to the U.S. inevitably will be seen as a rival to the CIS. Mammadov believes the upcoming CIS summit in August will be extremely interesting, predicting that Russian President Putin will employ his usual, low-key and friendly style at the summit to try to sway regional leaders to his side. "We are brothers," Mammadov said Putin frequently tells the former Soviet leaders. Mammadov speculated the Georgian and Ukrainian "brothers," however, may not be present at the next CIS summit. Turning to another aspect of regional cooperation, Mammadov predicted that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will sign the long-awaited Inter-Governmental Agreement on cross-Caspian oil transport at a regional summit in Kazakhstan on June 19. -------------- -- MFA PRIORITIES: MAKING GUAM A REAL ORGANIZATION -------------- -- ¶4. (C) In a separate May 16 meeting with Emboff, Galib Israfilov of the MFA's security issues directorate said that Azerbaijan's first goal for the summit is to complete the process of transforming GUAM from a regional grouping into an actual international organization. A formal charter for GUAM will be signed and a formal secretariat, to sit in Kiev, will be established. The secretariat will employ both international and local staff and have its own budget. Israfilov believes that this will help relieve the pressure on national foreign ministries, which have many issues to worry about besides GUAM. For the moment, Israfilov said, GUAM will continue to use both Russian and English as its official languages. While many in the organization would like to shift over entirely to English, said Israfilov, the level of English-language proficiency in the four member countries is not quite high enough to do so yet. Israfilov said that he understands GUAM will now be referred to as the "Organization for Democracy and Development - GUAM". This will allow the organization to have a more descriptive name while not losing the name-recognition "GUAM" has built up. -------------- -------------- OTHER PRIORITIES: REGIONAL CONFLICTS, ECONOMICS, PROJECTS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Another priority for Azerbaijan, said Israfilov, is engaging GUAM on the settlement of regional conflicts. The BAKU 00000734 002 OF 002 strength of GUAM is its unanimity, said Israfilov. Although each case is different, he said, each of the GUAM members has some experience with "separatism" and can have a broad understanding of the issue. Other issues on Azerbaijan's agenda include continuing the Virtual Law Enforcement Center (VLEC) project and the Trade and Transport Facilitation (TTF) project. Part of TTF involves the harmonizing of standards and tariffs, said Israfilov, and this too will be discussed at the summit. Finally, said Israfilov, the GOAJ wants to discuss ways the GUAM members can cooperate on economic and energy issues (Israfilov did not provide specifics). There will also be a meeting of the GUAM Youth Forum, and discussions of health issues and cultural exchages. ¶6. (C) Israfilov remarked that GUAM has certainly grown over the past few years and that Ukraine's attitude has changed over that time, to the point where it is much more supportive and active than it was before. Israfilov expressed thanks for the support the United States has given GUAM over the years. This support was crucial in getting the organization off the ground, he said. Emboff replied that the United States continues to support GUAM and its member states deserve credit as well for GUAM's concrete progress. HYLAND