CODEL KOLBE DISCUSSES IRAN WITH AZERBAIJANI

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000584

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO H FOR CODEL KOLBE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL IR AJ
SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE DISCUSSES IRAN WITH AZERBAIJANI
FOREIGN MINISTER


Classified By: DCM JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: During an April 13 meeting with Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov, House Subcommittee Chairman Jim Kolbe
(R-AZ) thanked the Foreign Minister for GOAJ's support for
the Global War on Terrorism, calling Azerbaijan a "stalwart
friend." Mammadyarov reiterated GOAJ's commitment to staying
in Iraq as long as necessary. Mammadyarov also noted that
the GOAJ has followed in detail developments in Iran and
explained that Iran's nuclear aspirations are a multi-faceted
problem and must be dealt with as such. (Other issues
septel). END SUMMARY.


2. (C) During an April 13 call on Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov, Chairman Kolbe thanked Mammadyarov for
Azerbaijan's commitment to the Global War on Terrorism.
Kolbe said Azerbaijan is a "stalwart friend" for contributing
peacekeeping troops and providing overflight rights for
access to Central Asia. Foreign Minister Mammadyarov noted
that Azerbaijan was a full member of the Coalition and
despite other countries' intentions to withdraw, the GOAJ was
committed to staying in Iraq as long as necessary. He
commented, though, that the lingering issue of Section 907 of
the Freedom Support Act creates difficulties for security
cooperation and asked for the Congressman's support in
permanently repealing the legislation.

IRANIAN NUKES: MORE SYMBOLIC THAN ARMAMENT
--------------


3. (C) Mammadyarov, who stressed that the Azerbaijani
government has very good knowledge of Iranian politics and
events, also gave his thoughts on the current Iranian
situation, noting that it is rare for a state to have been in
existence for more than 2,000 years. Before the overthrow of
the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iran, he
said that both served to balance Iran's ambitions and
leadership in the region. Now that both checks on Iranian
power had disappeared, Mammadyarov said there was a power
vacuum in the Middle East, leaving Iran to do as it pleased.


4. (C) Assessing the structure of the Iranian regime,
Mammadyarov compared it to the Communist Party under the
former Soviet Union. He said the President of Iran has no
power to act without the consent of the Supreme Council and
as such, the GOAJ always requests meetings with the Council
during visits. Without the approval of the Council, he said,
no agreement can be reached. Mammadyarov said it was his
personal belief the USG would have more success reaching a
resolution from within rather than from without, and that
discussions with Iran on Iraq might pave the way for such
diplomatic contact.


5. (C) Mammadyarov did not appear convinced that Iran was on
the brink of obtaining nuclear weapons, commenting that more
evidence was still needed that the country would actually
acquire nuclear weapons if left alone. He commented that
Iran's announcement on April 12 about enriching uranium was
intended more to irritate the international community and to
bolster domestic pride than to indicate nuclear weapons were
imminent. Iran's Minister of Defense planned an official
visit to Baku the week of April 17, he reported, and said the
Azerbaijanis would be asking hard questions about Iranian
intentions.


6. (C) Agreeing with Chairman Kolbe that a nuclear Iran would
lead to regional escalation, Mammadyarov related his
conversation with the former Iranian Foreign Minister. When
Mammadyarov asked him why Iran was pursuing nuclear
technology, the Iranian reportedly replied, "Pakistan has
nukes, why shouldn't we?" Overall, Mammadyarov assessed,
Iranian society does not understand the implications of a
nuclear explosion and had little sense of the danger or the
impact on the ground such an event would cause. He reasoned
this ignorance came from a lack of literacy, religious
influence, and the government's manipulation of the people
for the sake of nationalist pride.


7. (U) Codel Kolbe did not have the opportunity to review
this cable.
HARNISH