CODEL KOLBE DISCUSSES IRAN WITH AZERBAIJANI

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000584 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO H FOR CODEL KOLBE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016 TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL IR AJ SUBJECT: CODEL KOLBE DISCUSSES IRAN WITH AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER Classified By: DCM JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During an April 13 meeting with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov, House Subcommittee Chairman Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) thanked the Foreign Minister for GOAJ's support for the Global War on Terrorism, calling Azerbaijan a "stalwart friend." Mammadyarov reiterated GOAJ's commitment to staying in Iraq as long as necessary. Mammadyarov also noted that the GOAJ has followed in detail developments in Iran and explained that Iran's nuclear aspirations are a multi-faceted problem and must be dealt with as such. (Other issues septel). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) During an April 13 call on Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Chairman Kolbe thanked Mammadyarov for Azerbaijan's commitment to the Global War on Terrorism. Kolbe said Azerbaijan is a "stalwart friend" for contributing peacekeeping troops and providing overflight rights for access to Central Asia. Foreign Minister Mammadyarov noted that Azerbaijan was a full member of the Coalition and despite other countries' intentions to withdraw, the GOAJ was committed to staying in Iraq as long as necessary. He commented, though, that the lingering issue of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act creates difficulties for security cooperation and asked for the Congressman's support in permanently repealing the legislation. IRANIAN NUKES: MORE SYMBOLIC THAN ARMAMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) Mammadyarov, who stressed that the Azerbaijani government has very good knowledge of Iranian politics and events, also gave his thoughts on the current Iranian situation, noting that it is rare for a state to have been in existence for more than 2,000 years. Before the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iran, he said that both served to balance Iran's ambitions and leadership in the region. Now that both checks on Iranian power had disappeared, Mammadyarov said there was a power vacuum in the Middle East, leaving Iran to do as it pleased. ¶4. (C) Assessing the structure of the Iranian regime, Mammadyarov compared it to the Communist Party under the former Soviet Union. He said the President of Iran has no power to act without the consent of the Supreme Council and as such, the GOAJ always requests meetings with the Council during visits. Without the approval of the Council, he said, no agreement can be reached. Mammadyarov said it was his personal belief the USG would have more success reaching a resolution from within rather than from without, and that discussions with Iran on Iraq might pave the way for such diplomatic contact. ¶5. (C) Mammadyarov did not appear convinced that Iran was on the brink of obtaining nuclear weapons, commenting that more evidence was still needed that the country would actually acquire nuclear weapons if left alone. He commented that Iran's announcement on April 12 about enriching uranium was intended more to irritate the international community and to bolster domestic pride than to indicate nuclear weapons were imminent. Iran's Minister of Defense planned an official visit to Baku the week of April 17, he reported, and said the Azerbaijanis would be asking hard questions about Iranian intentions. ¶6. (C) Agreeing with Chairman Kolbe that a nuclear Iran would lead to regional escalation, Mammadyarov related his conversation with the former Iranian Foreign Minister. When Mammadyarov asked him why Iran was pursuing nuclear technology, the Iranian reportedly replied, "Pakistan has nukes, why shouldn't we?" Overall, Mammadyarov assessed, Iranian society does not understand the implications of a nuclear explosion and had little sense of the danger or the impact on the ground such an event would cause. He reasoned this ignorance came from a lack of literacy, religious influence, and the government's manipulation of the people for the sake of nationalist pride. ¶7. (U) Codel Kolbe did not have the opportunity to review this cable. HARNISH