AZERBAIJAN'S DEPUTY SPEAKER INTRANSIGENT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000529 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC; EUR/SNEC E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016 TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL PINR MARR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S DEPUTY SPEAKER INTRANSIGENT ON NAGORNO-KARABKH Classified By: DCM JASON HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) On March 30 PolEcon Counselor called on First Deputy Speaker Ziyafat Asgarov to discuss plans for parliamentary reform and his legislative priorities. However, Asgarov chose to devote the meeting to a lengthy soliloquy on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and why the international community has failed in its responsibility to resolve the problem. Asgarov, a polished and connected politician, argued that the 13 years of suffering Azerbaijan has undergone at the "hands of the Armenians" necessitates a resolution to the conflict by war if necessary. While PolEcon Counselor attempted to convince Asgarov of his responsibility as an elected official to prepare Azerbaijan's people for the eventuality of compromise in the name of achieving peace, Asgarov's position once again demonstrated the difficulties the GOAJ will face in selling a negotiated peace to its public. END SUMMARY. N-K HINDERS DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Asgarov began the meeting by discussing a few pieces of legislation on Parliament's calendar, including the Law on Education, an improved Law on Security and Defense, and the importance of the Human Rights Commission reviewing most pieces of legislation to ensure their compliance with international standards. However, while saying that the GOAJ was interested in democratic development, he said that Armenia creates obstacles to Azerbaijan's ability to accomplish this. He explained that a country with one million IDPs and refugees and 20 percent of its land occupied could not be a full democracy. Until this problem with Armenia is solved, he said, regional development will continue to be slow and the USG should use its influence over Armenia to resolve the problem. Otherwise, he warned that Azerbaijan's militant mood would increase as the conflict prolonged. CALL AN AGGRESSOR AN AGGRESSOR -------------- ¶3. (C) Asgarov continued, saying that one million people should not have to live in the current, despicable conditions. He said he was ashamed that he is not fighting on the front lines to restore their lands so they can go back home. He continued, saying that the IDPs understand every country has its interests in Azerbaijan, but they often ask who will protect their interests? He said he understood why the West insists that war should not be an option, but said that everything has its limits. The United Nations, he continued, guarantees the right of a state to restore its territorial integrity if occupied. Unfortunately, the Minsk Group has not been successful in fulfilling this principle, primarily because the "flawed" process has never named the aggressor and the victim. If the Minsk Group would simply do so, he said, and force Armenian troops to pull back from the occupied territories, negotiations and a resolution would be possible. To illustrate what he termed the absurdity of the situation, he asked what would happen if Armenia declared an Armenian state in Georgian territories or in the state of California? ¶4. (C) Asgarov went further, saying that he saw double standards in the USG approach to the issue. He said that Azerbaijan stood by the United States on September 11, 2001, yet the GOAJ has not seen a similar reaction from the USG on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He also criticized US Minsk Group Co-Chair Ambassador Mann for being insensitive when during a press conference several weeks ago, he said that he is familiar with the Azerbaijani people and knows that they would not want war. He stated that Mann does not maintain a fair position in the negotiations and does not have the right to talk on behalf of Azerbaijanis, who Asgarov maintained have the right to restore their territorial integrity. He further criticized the USG for working to uphold human rights but saying nothing about the human rights of Azerbaijan's IDPs and refugees. GOAJ NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR PEACE -------------- ¶5. (C) PolEcon Counselor responded that the GOAJ is an important strategic partner and therefore the USG wants the partnership improved. The way to do that, she responded, would be through resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. She said that Minsk Group Co-Chairs were correct in telling the GOAJ that outsiders cannot make peace and that it is the responsibility of the GOAJ to create the conditions for BAKU 00000529 002 OF 002 peace. The GOAJ must prepare its people for compromise in order to achieve peace, she continued, saying that no party would be able to get 100 percent of its demands. Asgarov, she said, as an elected official, has the duty to summon political courage to begin spreading that message and to begin serious discussions about peace in the Parliament. ¶6. (C) Asgarov rejected the idea that compromise was necessary, saying that Azerbaijan has nothing more to give up. He said that if war is to be avoided, the Minsk Group and the United Nations need to tell Armenia to pull back from its territories, and then the possibility for an agreement may exist. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Asgarov is one of Azerbaijan's more polished and professional politicians who could, should he decide to play that role, be instrumental in beginning a public dialogue on a realistic peace settlement. He is connected with the ruling party and GOAJ elite and is an articulate, charismatic speaker. Unfortunately, his rhetoric demonstrates the increasing intransigence of the public face of the GOAJ against any sort of compromise in the name of peace. His apparent failure to deal constructively with Azerbaijan's IDPs and refugees also was disturbing. Asgarov's rhetoric illustrates the political corner the GOAJ is painting itself into and the difficulties it will face in selling a negotiated peace to its public. HARNISH