SCENESETTER FOR MARCH 29 US-AZERBAIJAN

S E C R E T BAKU 000452

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPT FOR PM A/S HILLEN FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM MARR MASS MOPS PBTS AJ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR MARCH 29 US-AZERBAIJAN
POLITICAL-MILITARY CONSULTATIONS

REF: A. BAKU 347

B. BAKU 348

Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish III per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (S) Summary: The March 29 political-military
consultations are an important opportunity to broaden our
strong security relationship. Strategically located in the
heart of the Greater Middle East, Azerbaijan provides
excellent cooperation on security issues and looks for
opportunities to do still more. As President Aliyev has told
us many times, however, the GOAJ looks to the USG to take the
lead on these issues; the pol-mil talks are an opportunity to
do just that. Key issues that should be addressed in the
talks include upgrades to Nasosnoya Air Base and Azerbaijan's
national security strategy, both of which are required under
Azerbaijan's NATO IPAP and essential to our own security
goals for the region. The Caspian Sea WMD interdiction
programs are at a critical juncture, dependent on still
pending GOAJ decisions to bring the navy into the programs
and establish a Joint Command and Control Center. Your
involvement could help resolve these long-standing issues,
permitting the USG to move forward on phase 3 (USD 16
million) of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.
Regional issues factor prominently in Azerbaijan's pol-mil
calculus, and the GOAJ will want an update on U.S. policy on
Iran. Azerbaijan also is eager to discuss the
political-military aspects of a possible Nagorno-Karabakh
peace deal, and seeks USG views on possible demining and
reconstruction assistance, as well the structure of a
possible peacekeeping force. End summary.


2. (C) The March 29 political-military consultations -- the
first since 2004 -- are an important opportunity to broaden
the bilateral relationship. EUR A/S Fried highlighted the
talks in his March 14 meeting with President Aliyev and, as
demonstrated by the GOAJ's robust delegation, it is clear the
GOAJ also views the talks as an important opportunity. Led
by Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, the delegation will
also include Deputy Minister of National Security Fuad
Iskenderov, Deputy Chief of the State Border Service Major
General Farhad Tagizade, and Admiral Shahin Sultanov,
Commander of the Naval Forces. The delegation's emphasis on
Border Guards and Naval Forces reflect the important role
that the Caspian Guard Initiative plays in our bilateral
security relationship; it also provides an excellent
opportunity to press for more inter-ministerial cooperation
on our Caspian WMD interdiction programs.

NATO IPAP ISSUES
--------------


3. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, who is leading
the GOAJ delegation, will arrive in Washington fresh from
consultations with NATO on Azerbaijan's IPAP. While the
specifics of IPAP implementation are not on the agenda for
the March 29 talks, the issues that Azimov will have
discussed in Brussels are central to the continuing reform of
Azerbaijan's military and to the future of our bilateral
relationship. In our view, the pol-mil consultations present
an invaluable opportunity to present our views and press the
GOAJ for greater progress on Nasosnoya Air Base, the National
Security Strategy, and development of a non-commissioned
officer corps.


4. (S) On March 17, Ambassador Harnish presented the U.S.
feasibility study of Nasosnoya Air Base to Minister of
Defense Safar Abiyev. Upgrade of the air base to NATO
standards is an integral part of Azerbaijan's IPAP, and also
would greatly enhance our ability to provide gas-and-go
services for NATO aircraft bound for Afghanistan. Military
flight volumes are increasing with over 30 landings since the
beginning of the year. We ultimately will need to switch
from our current operations at Baku's Heydar Aliyev
International Airport to a more secure and discreet location
at the Nasosnoya Air Base outside Baku. While President
Aliyev will be the ultimate decision-maker on this issue, the
pol-mil consultations provide an invaluable opportunity to
brief Azimov -- a key advisor on this issue -- on
Washington's latest thinking on Nasosnoya. We were pleased
when we learned March 23 that the MOD had named a project
officer and expert staff for the project. Now, we should
encourage the delegation to set aside funding.


5. (C) As part of the NATO IPAP, Azerbaijan has committed to
developing a national security strategy and a national

military strategy. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov is
leading the charge but has encountered some resistance within
the GOAJ. Rivalry is fierce between Azimov and the Ministry
of Defense over the strategies, particularly as NATO
integration will force the uniformed leadership at the MOD to
relinquish control to civilian authorities. Azerbaijan has
promised to complete its National Security Strategy by 2006;
some encouragement from Washington on this critical subject
would be very helpful. The U.S. has offered a great deal of
assistance in Azerbaijan's development of the strategies; you
should ask Azimov whether further assistance is needed.
Similarly, U.S. encouragement on GOAJ plans to develop a
noncommissioned officers corps would be equally helpful. FMF
funds and our cooperation with the Oklahoma National Guard
are developing an NCO academy. Now, the MOD needs to rethink
the role of officers and the NCO's leadership of soldiers.
The Azerbaijani military's lack of working-level expertise is
a serious impediment to defense reform and the GOAJ's ability
to attain NATO interoperability, a key US policy goal.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR
--------------


6. (S/NF) Azerbaijan has been a steadfast partner in the
Global War on Terror, contributing peacekeeping troops in
Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, and pledging to stay in Iraq as
long as US troops remain there. The pol-mil consultations
are an excellent opportunity to reaffirm our gratitude to
Azerbaijan for its support. Counterterrorism cooperation is
at an all-time high, including the arrest and rendition of
several terrorists with links to Al-Qaida. The GOAJ's very
capable Ministry of National Security (represented by Deputy
Minister Iskenderov looks to deepen this cooperation.

WMD NON-PROLIFERATION
--------------


7. (C) With funding from CTR, DTRA, EXBS and the Department
of Energy, the USG has made great strides in improving
Azerbaijan's ability to detect and interdict weapons of mass
destruction. Under the rubric of the Proliferation
Prevention Initiative (PPI),we have established an Interim
Command and Control Center which has greatly enhanced the
GOAJ's ability to interdict WMD on the Caspian. Further
progress on WMD non-proliferation depends on the GOAJ taking
action to bring the Navy into the operations (which currently
include only the Maritime Border Guard),and establishing a
Joint Command and Control Center (JC3) under the Caspian
Guard Initiative framework. If the GOAJ implements these two
steps, the USG is ready to follow through with an additional
USD 16 million in funding for the third phase of the program.
The Ambassador raised this in a March 2 meeting with
President Aliyev (ref a) but the GOAJ bureaucracy has been
slow to take the necessary steps. Your reiteration of the
importance of bringing the navy into WMD interdiction efforts
and moving forward quickly on the JC3 would be very helpful.
You could also remind the delegation that despite the GOAJ's
deep cooperation on counter-proliferation, it has not yet
signed up for the PSI, a fact that could leave them in the
cold for the June summit.

THE REGIONAL CHALLENGES
--------------


8. (C) Azerbaijan's views on political-military issues are
colored by what GOAJ officials aptly describe as their
"difficult neighborhood." Since independence, the GOAJ has
pursued a strategic policy that safeguards its independence
by tying Azerbaijan to the Euro-Atlantic structure. It also
has played a leading role in GUAM, an organization that was
created as a counterbalance to Russia's influence in the
region. We are mystified by regular reports of Azerbaijani
footdragging on GUAM and believe they stem from differences
with Georgian and Ukraine over the "Democratic Choice"
initiative proposed by those two countries. It would be
useful to ask Azimov for his views on GUAM. Azerbaijan keeps
a constant, wary eye on Russia and Iran and is careful not to
do anything that would provoke its more powerful neighbors.
For this reason, although senior GOAJ officials privately
tell us they are worried about Iran's nuclear programs, they
never have publicly condemned Iran's nuclear ambitions. The
GOAJ relies instead on carefully crafted languae that
supports all nations' rights to pursue peceful nuclear
programs while upholding internatinal commitments. The GOAJ
is anxious about the international community's growing moves
against Iran's nuclear programs and fears the repercussions

of any actions -- whether economic or military -- against
Azerbaijan.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH
--------------


9. (C) Azimov has also asked that the political-military
aspects of a possible Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement be
added to the agenda (ref b). While the details of a possible
settlement are being considered by EUR Senior Advisor Steve
Mann and the other OSCE Minsk Group Chairs, the pol-mil
consultations present an important opportunity to hear
Azerbaijan's perspectives on possible post-settlement needs.
Azimov is interested specifically in hearing US views on a
post-settlement assessment of the demining and reconstruction
needs in the Occupied Territories, as well as the possible
options for a peacekeeping force.
HARNISH