AZERBAIJAN ENERGY OUTLOOK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000450 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EB/ESC ENERGY FOR FE - SWIFT AND OS - WILLIAMSON ANKARA FOR FCS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016 TAGS: EPET ECON ENRG AJ RU KZ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ENERGY OUTLOOK REF: BAKU 370 Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish III, Reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Representatives from energy sector companies operating in Azerbaijan discussed the Barmek crisis, Caucasus gas needs, changes in pipeline security agencies, trans-Caspian oil transport and offshore gas development at the Ambassador,s March Energy Forum. Participants reported that businesses linked to deposed Minister of Economic Development Farhad Aliyev continue to face severe difficulties. They also said that Azerbaijan is beginning to redefine itself as a transit country. For this reason Azerbaijan seeks changes in the Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) required for a trans-Caspian oil transport deal with Kazakhstan, which may be difficult to get. A duty-free port would help Azerbaijan enormously in terms of maritime construction, but if the GOAJ does not grant one the GOKZ might. Although the companies believe that commercial negotiations should go ahead for full-field development of the Shah Deniz gas field, they caution that the amount of recoverable gas remains uncertain, and will not be known until current appraisal wells are completed. If current projections hold true, and Azerbaijan really can become a major supplier to European markets, new transportation infrastructure and perhaps new EU regulations, will be necessary. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador,s monthly energy forum took place on March 6. In attendance were representatives from: --Chevron --Devon Energy --Statoil --McDermott Caspian Construction --ConocoPhillips --TOTAL --BP --Amerada Hess Opinions expressed by corporate representatives are not necessarily the official positions of their companies. -------------- DIFFERENT VIEWS OF BARMEK CRISIS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Chevron representative said that the recent case of Barmek is similar to those of Fondel or Alumina. Businesses connected to former Minister of Economic Development Farhad Aliyev are being attacked and Russian businesses are taking over chunks of the non-energy industry. The GOAJ, the Chevron rep believes, is now focused on Azerbaijan,s role as a transit corridor and believes it can demand better deals from those, like Kazakhstan, who want to use that corridor. The Chevron rep feels that Natik Aliyev, despite his public statements, still wants to be involved with energy, views himself as having been sidelined, and is not happy about it. ¶4. (C) The Devon representative pointed out that there is more to the Barmek story - after all, he noted, in 2000, Barmek was a virtually unknown Turkish company that mysteriously managed to beat Siemens for the electricity tender, and which was somehow granted some legal concessions that the GOAJ was unwilling to grant to Siemens. "What goes around comes around," he said. The Devon representative feels it unlikely that UES will move into the market as in his view UES chief executive Anatoliy Chubays does not get along well with President Putin. The Devon representative also believes that Russia will block the construction of large tankers in the Caspian by refusing access to the Don Volga canal, and pointed out that giant tankers carry a serious environmental risk. Natik Aliyev, in the view of the Devon rep, won,t be able to make a comeback. In the Devon rep,s opinion, President Aliyev is trying to replace his father,s team with his own team, but he has to do this slowly so that it does not look like criticism of his father. -------------- GAS ISSUES -------------- BAKU 00000450 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) In discussing Shah Deniz, the Statoil representative said that Azerbaijan will insist on satisfying its domestic needs before looking at further export deals. Any look at full-field development must keep this in mind. The EU is getting more pragmatic regarding its laws on competition that complicate the importation of Azerbaijani gas into Europe and is "waking up" to the possibilities. Critical is the test well at Shah Deniz, the results of which will be known in September. In the meantime, Statoil has appointed a new VP for downstream gas issues. On the issue of exploitation of the non-associated deep gas at ACG, SOCAR,s Yusufzade has said that on the one hand he would like to see a new PSA, but that on the other hand he would like AIOC to be the consortium that exploits the field. The Amerada Hess representative said that Amerada Hess is very interested in exploitation of the deep gas well at ACG. The BP representative said that BP is still working on the issue of satisfying Georgian gas demands. -------------- SECURITY ISSUES -------------- ¶6. (C) The BP rep noted that the first hot-tap on BTC has been discovered. The tap was in Turkey, at a point that the oil had not yet reached. Reportedly, changes are taking place in pipeline security. In Georgia, the BP rep said that some of the SPSS units involved in pipeline security have been transferred to the Interior Ministry. On the Azerbaijan side, the new Ministry of Emergency Situations has said that it is taking over pipeline security, which is demoralizing to the Pipeline Protection Division of Azerbaijan,s SPSS, with which BP has had a good relationship. -------------- TRANS-CASPIAN PROJECTS -------------- ¶7. (C) The McDermott representative said that McDermott is very interested in the potential full-field development of Shah Deniz, and that they have been working closely with the new SOCAR leadership. In terms of recent labor unrest (over managers removing graphic pictures of the Khojaly massacre from a company bulletin board),the McDermott rep speculated that the situation could have been a setup as the press seemed to know everything before it happened. McDermott is looking for opportunities to keep its yards working. Elsewhere in the world, McDermott yards are located in duty-free ports and McDermott hopes for a similar arrangement here. If Azerbaijan doesn,t establish duty-free ports, the McDermott rep pointed out, Kazakhstan will, and Azerbaijan will lose out. Meanwhile, there seems to be movement on the long-dormant Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project (TCP) to bring Turkmenistan,s gas to Azerbaijan - the McDermott rep reports that a company called Prime Engineering (based in Atlanta) has done preliminary work on construction feasibility. However, the McDermott rep added that the Russians are apparently now raising the issue of whether the Caspian is a lake or a sea again, arguing that it is a lake and thus TCP can,t proceed without their clearance. This, as many attendees noted, contradicts the basis of Russia,s acceptance of the trilateral agreement with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan delimiting the north Caspian, an agreement which accepted ocean formulas for delimitation. ¶8. (SBU) The ConocoPhillips representative said that ConocoPhillips is still interested in exploration projects. On trans-Caspian shipping, the ConocoPhillips representative reported that there are rumors that SOCAR Financial Affairs VP Shahin Mustafayev is seeking to establish a relationship with a new company to handle shipping, to outflank state shipping monopoly CASPAR. Meanwhile, AzerTrans, the transportation unit of the former Azpetrol, has lost its senior management and a new, SOCAR-linked chief has been installed. ¶9. (C) The TOTAL representative pointed out that the shifting Russian view on the Caspian being a lake or a sea is one major reason why the KCTS (Kashagan-BTC) project is proceeding with tankers and not a pipeline. On the question of tanker risk, the TOTAL rep noted that risk is not based only on size, but on training, maintenance, and frequency of BAKU 00000450 003 OF 003 sailing - giant tankers sail less often than smaller ones. CASPAR would prefer smaller tankers so their existing infrastructure would be used, but the new Maritime Authority is chipping away at CASPAR,s authority. With regard to the Kashagan-BTC IGA issues, the TOTAL rep feels that many of these relate to internal disputes in Azerbaijan. Two weeks ago, the IGA was to be substantially modified - now it looks like the modifications will be less. The difficulty is that Kazakhstan,s draft is the product of painstaking internal deliberations within the GOKZ - altering even "a single comma" will prove difficult. The TOTAL rep feels that the Farhad Aliyev affair was all about destroying Azpetrol, perhaps so that Middle East Petroleum could move in. ¶10. (SBU) On Shah Deniz, TOTAL advises caution. Full-field development of Shah Deniz will involve tapping into a high-pressure structure deeper than the source for Phase II gas. It may well be that the high pressure will make it too difficult to extract the gas economically. When the first appraisal well is completed in September there will be some news, and in 2007, after the second appraisal well is complete, the picture will be clear. TOTAL and Statoil both agree that the commercial process has to be set in train now, however. Also, assuming full-field development will yield the volumes we hope, new infrastructure (new pipelines) will be necessary to properly exploit it. HARNISH