EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES DEMOCRACY, IRAN, ISLAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000433 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND NEA/NGA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2016 TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL PINR KISL AJ IR SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES DEMOCRACY, IRAN, ISLAM WITH AZERBAIJANI CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish, III, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting with Azerbaijan's civil society leaders, EUR A/S Dan Fried discussed democratization, Iran, and Islamic extremism. Many civil society leaders noted a disengagement from politics by the population after the November elections failed to meet their high expectations. While some characterized Azerbaijan as becoming another Uzbekistan, others would not go so far. The most important actions the GOAJ could take, in their view, included releasing political prisoners, punishing police misconduct, reforming the election commissions to remove unfair GOAJ advantages, and actually implementing its own election laws. While Imam Ilgar Ibrahimoglu stoutly denied the existence of any form of Islamic extremism in Azerbaijan and held "provocative" Western actions entirely responsible for recent Iranian policies, others noted attempts by both Iran and Saudi Arabia to build up Islamic extremism in Azerbaijan. Some of the civil society leaders also discussed their own contacts with democratic elements among the ethnic Azeri population in Iran, and their attempts to work with those elements on democracy questions both in Azerbaijan and in Iran. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On March 14, Ambassador hosted a tea for leaders of Azerbaijan's civil society to meet with EUR A/S Dan Fried. Ambassador, EUR/CARC Director Rood, and EUCOM J5 Eurasia chief COL Anderson were also present. The civil society leaders were: --Rasim Musabayov, independent political analyst --Nazim Imanov, independent political analyst --Murad and Rena Saddadinov, human rights activists --Saida Gojamanly, human rights activist --Leyla Yunus, human rights activist --Saadat Benanyarly, human rights activist --Novella Jafaroglu, human rights activist --Imam Haji Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, leader of the Juma Mosque Community -------------- AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) A/S Fried began the meeting by thanking the civil society leaders for coming and by described his trip so far. The United States is watching the upcoming rerun elections closely and Fried urged the civil society leaders to take an active part in them. He added that recent events in Ukraine are focusing renewed interest on Caspian energy. Finally, the issue of Iranian policy and behavior is again in the news in the region and in the United States. Fried asked for the opinion of the civil society leaders on Azerbaijan after the November election, and, noting that he would see President Aliyev later that day, asked what issues would they like him to raise with the Azerbaijani leader. ¶4. (C) Leyla Yunus said the elections had been damaging as people's high expectations had been disappointed. President Aliyev's two decrees had sparked hope, but the decrees had not been carried out and ultimately were a Soviet-style trick. Detentions had risen following the elections, not one police officer had been tried for misconduct, and the courts were taking no action. Azerbaijan, she said, is following the path of Uzbekistan. The new Ministry of Emergency Situations would likely become a new vehicle for repression, she added. Given this situation, she feels it is hard to decide if participating in the rerun elections is worth it. As far as a message for President Aliyev, Yunus said he should be told to punish police misconduct, release political prisoners, and change the structure of election commissions to remove the GOAJ's unfair advantage. Yunus then presented A/S Fried with her list of political prisoners (NOTE: The Council of Europe currently lists three political prisoners). ¶5. (C) Saida Gojamanly said her organization is awaiting the 2005 Human Rights Report with interest. She noted that an official who engaged in direct suppression of the 2003 demonstrations is now serving as a Deputy Minister of the BAKU 00000433 002 OF 004 Interior and might even become Minister. Where is the U.S. reaction to this, she asked rhetorically (NOTE: This was noted in the most recent Human Rights Report). Always, she said, people have hoped that the "next" elections would be better, but election laws have never been implemented. The annulled elections, she claimed, are all in constituencies where opposition candidates won. The still-unsolved murder of journalist Eldar Husseynov is a frightening warning of what can happen. President Aliyev, said Gojamanly, should definitely be told to release political prisoners but should also be told to watch his own officials closely and see that they actually implement election laws and his own decrees. ¶6. (C) Novella Jafaroglu said bluntly that civil society groups "have no influence" in Azerbaijan. As far as what to tell President Aliyev, she said that protecting freedom of expression would be a nice idea but that right in the abstract does not do much. For example, journalists like Elmar Husseynov are killed, others are wounded or intimidated. The courts are not making fair decisions, she added, whenever these matters are brought to judicial attentions. There is a real downside for middle-class persons trying to enter politics, she noted -- they can have their assets and property "appropriated" by the GOAJ overnight. This, she argued, is an effective tool to keep them silent. The Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) issue is also exploited to distract attention and keep the public in line. In a sense, this is made easier for the GOAJ, she believes, by the fact that Azerbaijan is a presidential republic, which concentrates great power in a single individual. Jafaroglu then presented A/S Fried with her organization's final report on police misconduct during the November 26 demonstrations. ¶7. (C) Nazim Imanov believes that Azerbaijan's people have lost interest in politics and have done so for two reasons. First, their heightened expectations of the most recent elections were not met -- and since the elections, the GOAJ has not made needed changes or reforms. A second reason is the lack of progress on N-K and the failure of the Rambouillet talks -- people are getting more interested in a military resolution because they believe a peaceful solution is not possible any more. Gojamanly spoke up and reminded the group of President Aliyev's donning of military fatigues and visiting the line of contact after the Rambouillet talks failed. ¶8. (C) Saadat Benanyarly said that the conduct of the November elections greatly reduced the public's trust in any future elections. Finger-inking and other innovations were ultimately not crucial -- vote-counting was. The middle-class also was substantially intimidated before the vote. Nazim Imanov actually won a seat, but in the vote-count his seat was stolen from him. Since the elections, prices have risen and the standard of living has decreased, said Benanyarly. This has hurt professionals especially -- doctors, teachers, et cetera -- and contributed to the souring of the public mood. ¶9. (C) Murat Saddadinov said that he does not see Azerbaijan as another Uzbekistan -- to him, it is more like a second Belarus and developing on the same pattern, with expansion of Russian business interests in-country. When former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met with then-Minister of Economic Development Farhad Aliyev during her visit last year on behalf of NDI, the GOAJ spun the meeting as a planning session for a revolution, similar to Belarus-style propaganda. Civil society activists have to stick together, said Saddadinov. Power in Azerbaijan is built on corruption, he asserted. He agreed that the issue of political prisoners definitely should be raised with President Aliyev. -------------- IRAN AND ISLAMIC EXTREMISM -------------- ¶10. (C) Imanov noted how Azerbaijani society is constantly discussing the issue of Iran and possible military action by the United States. Imanov said that he himself does not believe the United States will begin military operations against Iran, but that a majority of Azerbaijanis do not want BAKU 00000433 003 OF 004 to see such an operation because they worry about how it would affect Azerbaijan. Imanov also noted that many Iranian Azeris are buying houses in Azerbaijan proper -- as many as 50,000 families total. Why they are doing this is unknown. Novella Jafaroglu noted that her organization has worked with 500 ethnic Azeri students from Iran, to bring evolutionary change by teaching democratic values. She also said that her organization has contact with pro-democracy Iranian Azeris in Iran. ¶11. (C) Imam Haji Ilgar Ibrahimoglu said that he didn't like the use of the term "Islamofascism" by some Americans and noted with displeasure that twenty American states had established "A Day Against Islamofascism." Ibrahimoglu said that this kind of rhetoric, plus events in Iraq and at Guantanamo, had affected Iranian public opinion. Liberal under former President Khatami, Iran had now turned in a radical direction because of this kind of behavior by the West. Ibrahimoglu said that he has been fighting for democracy, that in fact he was the only one of the civil society activists who had been detained, and that there are no organizations in Azerbaijan trying to advance Iranian-style Islamic extremism. ¶12. (C) Leyla Yunus noted that her organization has spent six years working on the issue of Islamic extremism and that both Iran and Saudi Arabia have spent considerable amounts of money in Azerbaijan. During the recent controversy over the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, there were two large rallies in Baku. Where did the people come from, she asked rhetorically. Who organized this? Islamic extremism is being built up in the Sunni north by Saudi Arabia and in the Shia south by Iran. Yunus said that her organization has compiled a report on this topic. A/S Fried expressed interest in seeing the report. -------------- WHAT THE POLLS SHOW -------------- ¶13. (C) Rasim Musaybayov said that his colleagues had made some good points but that there is more to the story. Azerbaijan is not Uzbekistan, he said. While the elections were 100 per cent controlled by the GOAJ, they were not 100 per cent fraudulent. Regarding N-K, Musaybayov said that his organization's polls show that many still believe a peaceful solution is possible. Polls also show the United States in third place as a "friend of Azerbaijan" -- behind Turkey and Russia -- but the United States has never made the list of "enemies of Azerbajan". Interestingly, Iran makes both the list o "friends" and the list of "enemies" -- which Musabayov notes as reflecting Iran's intense activity in Azerbaijan. Saadat Benanyarly parenthetically noted that new polls of N-K refugees show increasing radicalization following the failure of Rambouillet. ¶14. (C) Musaybayov also noted that many of the officials who talk privately about "managed democracy" still end up sending their children to school in Western countries, not Russia. Despite some dissatisfaction with the West, support for the "Islamic model" has not grown. The underlying trends are favorable, and a majority is behind democracy as the only path to development. Novella Jafaroglu agreed that this is true but that the public has not seen democracy yet. Leyla Yunus agreed, saying that the trend is not towards the development of democracy in Azerbaijan, but rather towards increasing lack of respect for rule of law on the part of the GOAJ. Saida Gojamanly noted that the large number of official Russian visits to Azerbaijan has given the public the impression that Azerbaijan is "between" the West and Russia, not a part of the West. -------------- A/S FRIED RESPONDS -------------- ¶15. (C) A/S Fried thanked the civil society leaders for airing their views. On Iran, Fried stressed that the United States is pursuing a diplomatic solution, and that a diplomatic solution can work because Iranian society does not BAKU 00000433 004 OF 004 appear to want to be isolated. The sensitivity the Iranian regime has shown to the question of Iran being referred to the UN Security Council, said Fried, suggests that they really may be worried. The United States is not interested in military operations but is interested in reaching out to the Iranian people in a positive way. It is perfectly legitimate, Fried added, for Azerbaijan to be concerned about Iran -- and in his opinion, Iran is a much bigger security threat to Azerbaijan than Armenia is. The United States wants Azerbaijan to feel secure. Fried noted that he does not use the term "Islamofascism" but that he does use the term "Islamism", and that all religions are capable of generating anti-democratic ideologies. ¶16. (C) Fried noted that the group had discussed several major issues but had not touched on oil revenue management. He said the issue is an important one, closely related to the issue of corruption, and that he hoped civil society organizations would engage the issue. On political reform, Fried said that Azerbaijan is not a democracy but it is not another Uzbekistan either, and that there is a difference between the two. The United States must balance support for reforms that do occur against criticism of antidemocratic actions that also take place, and concluded by thanking the group again for a frank and constructive dialogue. ¶17. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable. HARNISH