EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000412 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016 TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET EFIN PREL PGOV AJ SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL REFORMS WITH AZERBAIJANI ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish III, Reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: EUR A/S Dan Fried and Ambassador Harnish discussed the importance of strengthening Azerbaijan,s economic and financial development with Economic Development Minister Heydar Babayev on March 14. Babayev told Fried that his job is to make Azerbaijan stronger economically and that he is ready to use his influence to achieve this goal. Fried warned Babayev that the GOAJ needed to act quickly to strengthen the economic, banking, and financial services base in order to manage the increasing oil revenues. Babayev discussed with Fried the 2007 budget and the need for an improved system of budgetary planning. In addition, Babayev touched upon diversifying the economy and energy issues. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In a March 14 meeting with Minister of Economic Development Heydar Babayev, EUR A/S Dan Fried and Ambassador Harnish stressed the critical importance of continuing economic and financial reforms in the face of growing oil revenues. Minister Babayev told Fried that he wanted to help strengthen bilateral relations and cooperation, noting that he wanted Fried to leave with a good impression of Azerbaijan. Babayev told Fried that Azerbaijan,s GDP was growing at 26.4 percent and industrial growth totaled approximately 30 percent. Fried warned Babayev that the GOAJ needed to act quickly to strengthen the economic, banking, and financial services base in order to control the increasing oil revenues. Babayev said that Azerbaijan,s main economic objective was to use properly its oil revenue. Babayev added that he would use his personal relations and exploit the inherent weakness of corrupt bureaucrats to fight corruption in the GOAJ. FUTURE OIL REVENUE -------------- ¶3. (C) Fried asked Babayev to explain the GOAJ,s plans to use its future oil revenues to strengthen the country. Babayev responded that the government was aware of the economic dangers that increasing oil revenue could pose, specifically higher inflation and corruption. He noted that the GOAJ would use its oil revenue to develop the country,s infrastructure, solve social problems and assist refugees and IDPs. Babayev noted that the GOAJ has implemented poverty reduction and regional economic development programs. ¶4. (C) Babayev noted to Fried that the GOAJ needed to improve and strengthen its procurement procedures. He lamented that current procurement practices are haphazard with different ministries and agencies each procuring different items that might not be compatible within the government (i.e. computer software programs). Babayev added that the GOAJ needs to systemize the procedures for announcing tenders and bids for government contracts. He said that the Ministry of Economic Development should be more active in these areas in order to improve overall government coordination. Babayev noted that individual agencies, budgets, such as AZAL, Caspar and SOCAR, were a headache and the GOAJ needed to create an effective system of budgetary control. BUDGET PLANNING -------------- ¶5. (C) Turning to the growth of state budget expenditures, Babayev predicted that the GOAJ,s 2007 budget would increase an additional 50 percent over the 2006 budget. He said that he did not see a problem with such large budgetary increases since the budget was smaller during the 1990s. Babayev agreed with Ambassador Harnish on the need to organize and coordinate macroeconomic and budgetary goals among all the ministries. (NOTE: The Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Embassy plan to organize a macroeconomic and budgetary planning seminar for senior GOAJ decision-makers in early April.) ¶6. (C) Babayev noted that President Aliyev needed to push budgetary coordination within the government in order to create a new treasury spending system for improved budget formulation. Babayev told Fried that he was not going to "fight" with the Ministry of Finance or others in the President,s office regarding the coordination of the budget. He said he would raise the issue with the President, noting that the GOAJ needed an effective system to control and coordinate expenditures. BAKU 00000412 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Babayev hinted that the Tariff Council plans to raise the price of gasoline. (NOTE: In January, the Tariff Council doubled the price of diesel.) Babayev noted that the process of economic development was slow and gradual. He added that Azerbaijan had only experienced sustainable economic growth over the past five years. DIVERSIFYING THE ECONOMY -------------- ¶8. (C) Fried asked Babayev about the GOAJ,s efforts to diversify the economy, including the idea of offering companies tax and other investment incentives. Babayev agreed that the GOAJ was reviewing different investment options, including providing duty free zones. Ambassador Harnish raised U.S. firm J. Ray McDermott,s desire to base its oil platform/rig construction operations in Azerbaijan and Babayev agreed to meet with the company to develop possible ideas. Babayev explained that the Parliament and President,s office were drafting a revised investment law. He told Fried that the previous version of the law was based on Russian investment code. Fried noted, and Babayev agreed, that international companies would invest in Azerbaijan if the GOAJ created a stable business environment. ¶9. (C) Fried raised the issue of Azerbaijan,s small banking sector, probing Babayev on the best manner to strengthen the sector. Babayev noted that the National Bank of Azerbaijan is responsible for promoting as well as regulating the banking sector. He added that the GOAJ needed to adjust the NBA,s mandate and transfer banking sector promotion efforts into a new "financial services authority." Fried raised the example of Kazakhstan,s strong and robust banking sector, which Babayev agreed was a good model for Azerbaijan. Babayev stated that the GOAJ needed to support all financial services in order to strengthen the financial sector,s base. WORLD BANK AND IMF RELATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Babayev told Fried that the World Bank acted as the GOAJ,s best international economic and financial advisor. He derided the role of the IMF, noting that it had "killed the financial sector." Babayev added that he believed the Bank and IMF were playing "good cop-bad cop" roles in their dealings with the government. (NOTE: This is not the first time that Babayev has criticized the IMF while praising the efforts of the World Bank to help Azerbaijan.) NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT -------------- ¶11. (C) Turning to political issues, Babayev said that the GOAJ should not focus on Nagorno-Karabakh for the next five years, and instead, focus on economic and military development. He continued to say that after five years, the military budget will be larger than Armenia,s and better prepared for any hostilities. Babayev quickly noted that Armenia would be the first to attack and provoke war with Azerbaijan. Fried warned Babayev that a war with Armenia would kill the economy and ruin all the work the GOAJ had done to build a working economy. ENERGY RELATIONS -------------- ¶12. (C) Babayev remarked to Fried that Russia will continue to use its energy monopoly to blackmail the West. He noted that Azerbaijan buys natural gas from Russia at high prices since it was cheaper than domestic gas sources. Babayev told Fried that Azerbaijan currently has a three-month supply (1 bcm) stored in several facilities around the country. Babayev said that Azerbaijan was supplying Georgia with gas and electricity free of charge. Babayev claimed that the electricity blackout in Baku and northern sections of Azerbaijan in mid-January was exacerbated by a cut in Russian energy supplies, something that Babayev characterized as a "punishment" of the GOAJ for unspecified reasons. ¶13. (C) Turning to BP,s gas and oil operations, Babayev noted that the GOAJ needed to discuss with BP its contracts. Babayev alluded that the GOAJ should investigate the quantities of oil and gas the international companies are taking from the country since, in his view, the GOAJ needed BAKU 00000412 003 OF 003 to retain some of the oil and gas for itself. Babayev also noted that Azerbaijan should renegotiate the pricing scheme for natural gas sold to Turkey, noting that the originally agreed upon price was too low. Finally, he speculated that the price of oil could reach USD 100 a barrel by the end of the year thus increasing the country,s oil revenues. (COMMENT: Babayev's remarks on energy issues were light on details and not always in line with what GOAJ energy officials say. However, the general tone of his remarks is in line with Azerbaijan's recently increased assertiveness in dealing with international energy companies. END COMMENT). ¶14. (U) A/S Fried did not have the opportunity to clear this message prior to departing post. HARNISH