AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS PLANS WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000317 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM KDEM ASEC PGOV PREL PINR IR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS PLANS WITH AMBASSADOR SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During separate mid-February meetings with Ambassador, three prominent opposition leaders discussed their plans for party development and election strategies this year. While Ali Kerimli's Popular Front has reconstituted the Azadliq Bloc as a political bloc (without Musavat) and will boycott the May rerun elections, the party intends to remain active by holding public discussion forums on issues important to Azerbaijan's development. Kerimli also asked for the international community's assistance to push the GOAJ on democracy and confront it on its missteps. Isa Gambar, chairman of Musavat party, stated that his party would seek to build a broader base of support in advance of the May reruns, in which Musavat will participate. Gambar also spoke of his concern over Iran's nuclear proliferation intentions, and asked that the West not forget about Iran's northern neighbor. Azerbaijan National Independence Party's Etibar Mammedov focused his comments to the ambassador on his party's internal divisions. Mammedov maintained that despite the current chairman's power grab, he remains the rightful leader of ANIP and will guide decisions for the party, including participation in the May rerun elections. END SUMMARY. KERIMLI: DEMOCRATIC STRUGGLE MUST CONTINUE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Popular Front Party (PFP) Chairman Ali Kerimli expressed disappointment about the lost opportunities resulting from the November parliamentary elections, but resolved to continue pushing for democratic development (despite the fact that his party will boycott the May elections). To fill the gaps of public discourse left by the "rubber stamp Parliament," he reported that PFP would hold numerous discussions throughout the year with the participation of a number of actors on everything from the oil revenues to election code and system reforms. He also said his party will increase its activity in the regions to attract more supporters and would work with the international community to increase its efforts on democratization in Azerbaijan. Finally, Kerimli said the party would continue to struggle for freedom of assembly. ¶3. (SBU) Ambassador responded that he was pleased PFP would continue party-building activities this year and detailed �A;several USAID-sponsored programs focused on democratic development. Ambassador cautioned that these programs were not intended to produce immediate results, but rather to empower citizens with the knowledge and ideas needed to build a vibrant, democratic society for themselves. Kerimli acknowledged that it was the role of Azerbaijanis, not outsiders, to build democracy. However, he told Ambassador that programs would not be effective unless the USG worked on three key objectives first. He encouraged the Ambassador to look at the obstacles to democracy and try to overcome those obstacles (such as falsified elections) by directly confronting the GOAJ on those issues. He also said that the opposition and the GOAJ needed to be able to build a relationship through dialogue, and that the USG should support truly independent media. Ambassador responded that Kerimli's points were largely accurate and they were areas in which the USG has been and would continue to be active. GAMBAR: SEEKING THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Musavat chairman Isa Gambar also gave a broad overview to Ambassador of his party's plan for the coming year. He said the party would focus on unifying Musavat's message with society and strengthening ties with the international community. Musavat also plans to participate in both Parliament and the May 13 rerun elections. Gambar asserted that "more than 50 percent of society" did not favor Musavat's participation in Parliament and the reruns, but said this was due to people's distrust of Parliament. He decided to allow his party to participate in parliament in hopes of being able to convince the public it was the right thing to do. In a thinly veiled criticism of Kerimli, Gambar added that certain "forces" are trying to use the decision to weaken the party by pointing out so-called inconsistencies. Gambar asserted, though, that Musavat has not been inconsistent and has remained faithful to both its supporters and its platform. ¶5. (SBU) Changing topics, Gambar remarked that his party had always been interested in a democratic and liberal Iran. He said, however, that the situation had become dangerous with Iran's desire for nuclear weapons. Gambar said that nuclear proliferation would pose a direct threat to Azerbaijan, limiting its independence through the pressure Iran would be BAKU 00000317 002 OF 002 able to exert on the GOAJ. The hand of Iran in Azerbaijan was already evident, he said, as evidenced by Iran's attempts to influence opinion both on Iraq and Prophet Mohammed cartoons. He said he favored resolving the Iran crisis through peaceful negotiations, but time was running out. Gambar estimated Iran would have a nuclear weapon within several months. Gambar asked that the West help protect Azerbaijan from attack in the event that Iran develops nuclear weapons. Because Iran seeks to work against both the US and US-allies, Gambar believes Azerbaijan would be directly in the line of fire. Ambassador agreed that the Iranian situation was of concern, but the USG was working together with its European allies to negotiate a solution and to support internal Iranian movements for democracy. Ambassador added that he understands Azerbaijan's vulnerabilities, particularly with regards to Nakhchivan's energy supply. MAMMEDOV: WILL THE REAL ANIP PLEASE STAND UP -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Etibar Mammedov called on Ambassador to discuss the current tensions within his party. Mammedov stepped down from a direct leadership role in the Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP) more than a year ago, but maintained influence over its activity. However, earlier this year the chairman of ANIP, Ali Aliyev, began a direct power play to apparently wrest the party from Mammedov's control. Mammedov has now reasserted his control over ANIP, creating two factions. Mammedov attributed the party's internal strife to the illegitimate and unwarranted power grab by Aliyev. Mammedov said that Aliyev had run roughshod over ANIP's party council and had failed in his duties. Mammedov reported that his wing of the party council would meet on February 17 to decide whether ANIP would participate in the May rerun elections. Mammedov affirmed that he believed participation in the reruns was in the party's interest and expected ANIP to field candidates in the election. (Aliyev's ANIP wing has signed an agreement with the Azadliq Political Bloc, which will boycott the May elections). Mammedov added that the two persons currently elected to Parliament under the ANIP banner were not in fact ANIP party nominees but rather prominent individuals who were party members supported by their political allies. Separately, Mammedov underscored his concern for the welfare of the Azeri community living in Iran in light of Iran's increasingly bellicose stance on the international stage. Mammedov concluded by asking the Ambassador for USG assistance in training ANIP's candidates for participation in the May reruns. HARNISH