UPDATED SCENESETTER FOR DRL A/S LOWENKRON'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001823

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL A/S LOWENKRON FROM AMBASSADOR DERSE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: UPDATED SCENESETTER FOR DRL A/S LOWENKRON'S
DECEMBER 17-20 VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN

REF: A. BAKU 1720


B. BAKU 1659

C. BAKU 1811

D. BAKU 1777

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Barry, I deeply appreciate your rescheduling your
visit and your willingness to lead a serious and sustained
dialogue with Azerbaijan in support of its democratic
development. Progress on political and economic reform is a
key element in our bilateral relationship and essential if we
are to engage Azerbaijan as fully as we should in light of
the broad range of important interests we share. President
Aliyev and his senior advisors assure us that Azerbaijan
remains committed to its policy of Euro-Atlantic integration
and to its commitments on democracy as spelled out by the
OSCE and the Council of Europe and included in Azerbaijan's
NATO International Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) and new EU
Action Plan. Events such as the recent two and half week
suspension of Azerbaijan,s leading independent broadcaster
(now resumed),simultaneous eviction of an opposition party
and other media outlets from their downtown offices and
continuing restrictions on freedom of assembly point to a gap
between Azerbaijan's stated policy of democratization and
Western integration and the reality in practice, however. We
need to work with President Aliyev to help him understand the
need to address this gap in the interest of Azerbaijan,s
development and of a strong bilateral relationship, and to
help him identify the best approach to do so, with our full
support.


2. (C) Azerbaijan's political environment is dominated by
openly hostile and personally vindictive relations between
the leaders of the GOAJ and the major opposition parties.
President Aliyev recently told me that Azerbaijan "has no
political process" or consensus on a national agenda or
development goals. He decries this situation, which he
largely blames on opposition leaders whom he says are driven
by personal political agendas, who refuse to permit new
talent to emerge and who are "uncivilized" in their tactics,
using "intimidation, illegal actions, and attempts to provoke
disorder" as methods of political struggle. Opposition
leaders in turn blame the lack of political process on the
GOAJ, arguing that the GOAJ falsified results in the November
2005 elections and, since then, has systematically denied the
opposition the means to participate legitimately in the
political process by limiting media freedom and freedom of
assembly. Following the November 2005 parliamentary
elections, all major opposition parties except Musavat have,
in fact, boycotted participation in parliament and elections.
Azerbaijan,s highly partisan press -- described by
Reporters Without Borders as "dominated by government and
opposition mouthpieces" - for the most part simply reflects
and exacerbates the poisonous political climate.


3. (C) For Azerbaijan to have a healthy political process,
this impasse needs to be broken. The GOAJ needs to open
space for opposition parties, civil society, a truly
independent media and citizens to execute their rights and
participate fully in existing democratic institutions. The
opposition must be willing to participate in the process. In
discussing your upcoming visit, President Aliyev told me that
he fully supports dialogue and consensus on national
objectives for political and economic development, and that
he is open to normalizing relations with the opposition. He
also asked specifically for U.S. help in "developing these
political processes" in Azerbaijan (ref d). Aliyev
subsequently went public last week with a call for dialogue
between the opposition and ruling parties. Senior ruling
Yeni Azerbaijan Party official Ali Ahmadov has told us the
opposition has now agreed to explore this dialogue without
any conditions. This is a positive and potentially
significant development. In order to succeed, it will
require ruling and opposition parties alike to put aside
their habitual personal attacks in favor of engaging in a
competition of ideas and alternative visions of Azerbaijan's
development and governance.


4. (C) Your visit provides a crucial opportunity to explore
the real possibilities for helping to "develop the political
processes" and democratic institutions in Azerbaijan.
Together, I hope we can probe the GOAJ, opposition, and civil

BAKU 00001823 002 OF 002


society on the root causes of the current impasse and
encourage identification of the right policy prescriptions
and concrete next steps. Change will be neither quick nor
easy. Azerbaijan's weak democratic progress is symptomatic of
many deeply rooted, systemic weaknesses that continue to
plague this post-Soviet society. We need to remember that we
began to offer significant assistance in political and
economic development to Azerbaijan ten years later than in
other post-Soviet states, and that recent pressures and open
threats from Russia and Iran have alarmed Azerbaijanis across
the political spectrum, providing excuses for delay to those
who oppose the GOAJ,s western and democratic orientation and
leading even those who support democratic change to note that
it must be approached "carefully." Nonetheless, recent
discussions with President Aliyev suggest that there is a
real opportunity to work constructively to establish a
results-focused dialogue to promote and support long-term
democratic change in Azerbaijan, based on our shared interest
in peaceful, democratic development in a strategic region
under pressure from those supporting a different path. My
team and I look forward to your visit.
DERSE