FINNISH (EU) AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001745 SIPDIS SIPDIS AMMAN - PLEASE PASS TO EUR A/S FRIED, DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM AJ SUBJECT: FINNISH (EU) AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER MEDIA SITUATION, DETAILS NEXT EU STEPS REF: BAKU 1739 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) EU (Finnish) Ambassador to Azerbaijan Teri Hakala briefed the Ambassador November 30 on EU views concerning the recent ANS closure and opposition eviction. Hakala, on a previously scheduled trip to Baku, met with Deputy Foreign Minister Mammadguliyev, human rights activists, and will meet with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov before departing. Hakala affirmed that the EU shared USG concern over the seriousness of the GOAJ actions and said that Aliyev's November 29 public statement was unclear at best and insufficient. She said that DFM Mammadguliyev reiterated that Azerbaijan was committed to Euro-atlantic integration and fell back on the GOAJ arguments that everyone must comply with the law and that Azerbaijani democratization should be viewed in the context of its geographic location. Hakala said that the DFM was noticeably uncomfortable in their meeting and at one point said "Do you think this is easy for me right now?" adding later "I don't like this" (situation) when Hakala pressed the EU position. Hakala expressed frustration to the Ambassador at the fact that the ANS closure and the opposition eviction came only two weeks after Aliyev signed the EU Neighborhood Action Plan in Brussels, in which she had invested considerable effort. ¶2. (C) Hakala echoed the view of many observers, telling the Ambassador that she found difficult to discern the driver of these recent events. She noted Aliyev or his surrogates might be attempting to clamp down on sources of dissent in the run up to the 2008 presidential elections with the intention of relaxing the restrictions during the campaign. Hakala expressed concern that if the motivation behind the events was related to the 2008 election, the opposition itself followed by the NGO community, especially those funded by foreign donors, would be the next logical targets. Hakala also said that a senior GOAJ diplomat in Brussels privately told EU officials that the recent turn of events in Baku was surprising, and that a power struggle underway within the Government between senior officials was driving these events. Hakala also did not exclude the possibility of Russian complicity, aimed at undermining Azerbaijan's stated goal of Euro-atlantic integration. ¶3. (C) Late in the day Hakala briefed the Ambassador by phone on her conversation with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov. Hakala reported that the conversation went well. According to Hakala, the FM more or less said that this would be worked out, remarking that "bureaucratic stupid things like this will happen." Mammadyarov said to Hakala, "I don't believe in conspiracy theories but you start to believe in them when something like this happens the week before the (Azerbaijani) First Lady is scheduled to travel to Washington." FM Mammadyarov urged Hakala to read Aliyev's statement in which Aliyev said that if the NTRC's 11 points are fulfilled, ANS can resume broadcasting. Mammadyarov told Hakala that ANS Chairman Vahid Mustafayev understood this and has been in contact with the NTRC. Hakala told Mammadyarov that the EU would issue a statement at the OSCE Vienna Ministerial next week. Making reference to "local traditions," Mammadyarov told Hakala that it was unlikely that there would be a resolution before the Ministerial. (Hakala said she understood Mammadyarov to mean the need to save face.) FM told Hakala that "this would be fixed" and that Aliyev himself believes the ANS closure to a be temporary suspension and not a termination, but that fixing it would take time. Mammadyarov twice emphasized that the President insists that everyone must play by the same rules and receive the same, "equal" treatment, which Hakala understood to be in reference to Russia. Hakala characterized Mammadyarov as uneasy and added that he had hinted at personal problems being a factor in the ANS closure. Hakala said that she and Mammadyarov will next meet in Brussels. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador conveyed to Hakala that we want the GOAJ to take action by the December 4 OSCE Ministerial in Vienna. Hakala said she took the same message to Mammadyarov and that the EU plans to make a statement at the November 30 OSCE PC, a second statement at the Ministerial December 4 and to release an EU-wide statement from Brussels later next week. Hakala agreed that the US and EU must remain in lockstep in addressing the situation. DERSE