MINOR PROTESTS MARK MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS VISIT AS

UNCLAS BAKU 000170 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN AND EUR/SNEC SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: PHUM KDEM ASEC KPAO PREL PGOV AJ SUBJECT: MINOR PROTESTS MARK MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS VISIT AS PUBLIC CONTINUES TO REJECT IDEA OF COMPROMISE ON N-K REF: 2005 BAKU 1923 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) The Karabakh Liberation Organization (KLO) once again was up to its usual tactics during the visit of the three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs January 31-February 1. Ambassador Steven Mann, US Special Negotiator for the conflict and Minsk Group Co-Chair, was met at the airport by two noisy and pushy KLO protestors and press cameras. Police detained one of the two protestors, who was subsequently released. The KLO also attempted to stage a protest outside the gates of the MFA prior to the Co-Chairs' meeting with the Foreign Minister. About 25 people attempted to assemble, but were quickly dispersed by police, who detained 12 of the protestors. Police released the 12 shortly after the incident. Embassy security was on alert throughout Mann's visit and no further incidents occurred. ¶2. (U) The primary message of the KLO, as is typical (reftel),was that the Co-Chairs, whom the KLO believes are biased against Azerbaijan and favor Armenia, should not be negotiating a settlement of the conflict. In an interview this week, the KLO leader stated that Azerbaijan has not lost the war, because the war is still ongoing. He raised the possibility of resuming the fight and categorically rejected the notion of compromise. ¶3. (SBU) While the specific message of the KLO may or may not resonate within Azerbaijani society, sentiments are still deep-rooted within the population that Azerbaijan was wronged and therefore should not compromise. This sentiment was in full display during Ambassador Mann's February 1 address to the Azerbaijan Alumni Association, comprised of individuals who have participated in US study programs. Mann was pointedly questioned as to why Azerbaijan, which had been illegally deprived of its territory, should compromise. According to one young participant, Azerbaijan has already offered "maximum" autonomy to Karabakh and that the GOAJ should not cede any portion of the occupied territories or the region of Nagorno Karabakh. He also specifically said he took offense at the term "N-K and the occupied territories." Using that terminology implies a separate status for N-K when in fact, he said, the entire region is occupied Azerbaijani territory and therefore should be referred to as such. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) From our observations, the GOAJ has much work to do to prepare the public for any eventuality of a settlement, particularly any settlement that might include loss of GOAJ authority over any portion of the lands. We expect radical groups such as the KLO to harbor strong emotions against any concessions, but it is worrisome that a group of bright, English-speaking, Western-educated individuals also so vehemently rejects any notion of compromise. The GOAJ's current public posture on the negotiations - focused largely on the need to retain Azerbaijan's territorial integrity - only reinforces the public's sense of injustice and rejection of compromise. Absent a realistic, public debate on the peace process, the Azerbaijani public likely will be ill-prepared for any possible settlement. HARNISH