CORRECTED COPY: FRENCH LAW ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001579 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL AJ AM FR SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: FRENCH LAW ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE SPARKS REACTION IN AZERBAIJAN REF: BAKU 001449 Classified By: A/DCM Joan Polaschik for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The French Parliament's draft law criminalizing denial of the Armenian "genocide" has triggered a heated reaction from the Azerbaijani public, including several atempted protests at the French Embassy. Azerbaijan's parliament criticized the draft law, stating that it cast doubt on France's ability to serve as neutral broker in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within the OSCE Minsk Group. The GOAJ publicly has criticized the law, but appears to have little interest in inflaming popular frustrations with France. First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva traveled to Paris in October to mark UNESCO's "Week of Azerbaijan," and planning for President Chirac's spring visit to Baku still appears to be on track. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The October 12 decision by the French Parliament's lower house to approve a law criminalizing denial of the Armenian "genocide" has triggered a heated reaction from the Azerbaijan public. Local television and newspapers have picked up on the story, reporting on the French parliament's decision and focusing on the strength of the Armenian lobby in France. Local press reported on October 17 that several Azerbaijani television stations will ban French films and programming to protest the law. There have also been several small protests or attempted demonstrations at the French Embassy by the opposition Popular Front Party, the Karabakh Liberation Organization, and the National Awakening Movement of Southern Azerbaijan. Local taxi cab drivers also are eager to deride the French decision. ¶3. (SBU) Despite the popular backlash against the French law, independent commentators judge that the issue will likely fall off the headlines in the coming weeks. The Institute for War and Peace Reporting Country Director Shahin Rzaev remarked that while the Azerbaijani population has little goodwill toward France, they are more concerned about the price of bread than protesting the law. Academic Leila Aliyeva separately reiterated this view. She observed that the average person on the street is not overly concerned with the French decision and is instead focused on "pocketbook issues." ¶4. (C) The GOAJ publicly has criticized the law, but does �A;not appear eager to pick a fight with Paris. Novruz Mammadov, head of the Presidential Administration's foreign relations department, in October 14 press comments characterized the law as "not well thought out or clever" and pledged to work "in solidarity with Turkey." Mammadov reminded the public, however, that the bill would not come into effect in the near future. He said the bill would likely be debated for a "long time." Separately, local press outlet Ekho reported on October 17 that First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva had traveled to France to mark the "Week of Azerbaijan," as part of UNESCO's 60th anniversary. Aliyeva's visit suggests that the GOAJ seeks to avoid escalating tensions. At an October 16 roundtable, local IWPR reporters told Poloff that the GOAJ had little interest in using the incident to dial down relations between France and Azerbaijan. Participants noted that the GOAJ wants to keep French President Jacque Chirac's scheduled visit to Azerbaijan next spring on track. ¶5. (C) Perhaps the most important effect of the French law in Azerbaijan will be to further sully popular perceptions of France. Participants at the same 16 October IWPR roundtable remarked that the incident will reinforce the population's pre-existing negative image of France, particularly France's perceived inability to be an objective party to the OSCE Minsk Group process. One local journalist commented that whereas perhaps five percent of the population had a positive or neutral view of France, the current popular view of France has hit a new all-time low. In a Milli Majlis statement adopted on October 13, the Parliment drew a link between the French law and France's unsuitability as an OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair. The statement noted that the law is "obviously unfair" and reflects a "double standard approach" because the "Turkic people have suffered from physical and moral terror of (the) Armenian ultra-nationalists." Calling attention to France's role as a Co-Chair in the OSCE Minsk Group, the statement said the law "forces us to cast doubt on (France's) objectiveness." BAKU 00001579 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) French DCM Sylvain Guiaugue privately acknowledged to Poloff on 27 October that the incident had caused serious damage to France's public image in Azerbaijan, remarking that it would take some time to fix the problem. Guiaugue noted that several of his personal Azerbaijani contacts had cut relations with him as a result of the draft French law. Guiaugue said that he and other French embassy staff had briefed GOAJ officials that the draft French law was inspired by parochial domestic French politics and would be unlikely to become law. Guiaugue judged that while these efforts helped the GOAJ to understand the context of the draft law, it would be more challenging to repair France's poor image among the Azerbaijani public. ¶7. (C) Comment: Coming on the heels of French OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Bernard Fassier's very public reference to the Armenian occupied city of Khankendi as "Stepanakert," (ref) the draft French legislation has deepened local suspicions that France is not an honest broker in the NK peace talks. ¶8. (U) This cable is a corrected copy of Baku 001565. DERSE