IDP COMMUNITY SPEAKS OUT ON N-K NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001279

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL PBTS PHUM KDEM AM AJ
SUBJECT: IDP COMMUNITY SPEAKS OUT ON N-K NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. BAKU 1164

B. BAKU 1232

C. BAKU 1021

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 24, Poloff met with an IDP
community that lives in abandoned train cars just outside the
southern Azerbaijani city of Imishli. Although one man
insisted that the only way to settle the N-K conflict is
through war, most members of the community remain hopeful
that a peaceful solution can be achieved. Many of the IDPs
with whom Poloff spoke said that they follow the news and are
aware of the negotiation process. Of the Minsk Group
framework agreement's core principles, the biggest concern
for this community is the proposed return of just five of the
seven occupied territories; they view the occupied
territories as a whole that should not be separated. They
also expressed keen interest in returning to their homes in
Zangilan, one of the seven occupied territories. The
community is supportive of the GOAJ's efforts in the
negotiations process, and believes that President Aliyev will
follow through with his commitment to eliminate all tent
camps in Azerbaijan by the end of the year. Many of the IDPs
expressed frustration that their Member of Parliament,
Imanverdi Ismayilov - from the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party -
has not visited the settlement once in the ten years he has
been in office. END SUMMARY

HOPE FOR A PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT
--------------


2. (C) Approximately 100 IDP families - roughly 500 to 600
people - live in abandoned train cars just minutes from the
center of Azerbaijan's southern city of Imishli. Many members
of this community are children, spanning all ages, virtually
all of whom are able to attend school nearby at a facility
designated for IDP and refugee children. The settlement has
occasional running water and electricity, although both are
in short supply during the hottest summer months. In an
August 24 discussion with Poloff, approximately 20 members of
the IDP community expressed their hope that a peaceful
solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be reached. The
women particularly emphasized that "no one wants to go to war
again," but several of the men added that they "would not
hide" if there were to be a war. Only one man was adamant in
his opinion that a peaceful solution is not possible. Above
all, their primary concern was to return to their homes in
Zangilan, located in the southwest corner of the occupied
territories, bordering Armenia and Iran.

MINSK GROUP NEGOTIATIONS
--------------


3. (C) Most of the IDPs with whom Poloff talked were well
aware of the OSCE Minsk Group negotiation process. One woman
explained that a few members of the community own
televisions, and that when the electricity works, everyone
follows the news closely. The entire community disagreed with
the proposed plan, articulated in the Minsk Group core
principles, to return five of the seven territories currently
occupied by Armenian forces. One man argued that the occupied
territories have to be viewed together, and that it is not
possible to separate them. Many said that regardless of the
outcome of the negotiations, Armenia will not withdraw its
forces. One woman accused Armenia of setting fire to the
occupied territories, and asserted that this signifies that
Armenia is not serious in attempting to reach a peaceful
settlement.

SUPPORT FROM THE GOAJ
--------------


4. (C) Virtually all of the IDPs with whom Poloff spoke
strongly support the Aliyev administration's efforts in the
negotiation process. Furthermore, most are confident that
President Aliyev will follow through with his promise to
eliminate all tent camps in Azerbaijan by the end of the
year. Aside from these broader initiatives, most of the
community expressed frustration that the GOAJ cut subsidies
that they had been receiving. In addition, a few of the IDPs
said that documents proving they had served in the military -
and necessary to receive veteran's benefits - had been
confiscated by local officials and never returned. Many of
the elderly members of the community receive pensions, but
say that this is not enough to provide basic necessities. Out
of the money that they do receive, one woman explained to
Poloff, most is spent on medication for the children, whose
health is poor because of their living conditions.


5. (C) Several of the IDPs mentioned that Deputy Prime
Minister Ali Hasanov, Chairman of the State Commission on

BAKU 00001279 002 OF 002


IDPs and Refugees, had recently visited the settlement, but
they expressed frustration with the lack of support from
their ruling party MP, Imanverdi Ismayilov. One woman told
Poloff that over the years, many members of the international
community have visited the settlement, but Ismayilov - having
completed two five-year terms and currently serving his third
- has not visited once. She said that prior to the November
2005 Parliamentary Elections, several members of the
community had attended one of Ismayilov's campaign events and
asked why he had not visited. According to this woman,
Ismayilov had responded that he did not need to visit the
settlement because he would be re-elected whether or not the
IDP community voted for him. (Note: Azerbaijan's refugee and
IDP communities vote in separate constituencies, based on the
regions from which they fled. As a result, their
constituencies are scattered throughout Azerbaijan.)

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The criticism of the Minsk Group's proposal that
Armenia withdraw its troops from five of the seven
territories echoes comments previously made by GOAJ officials
and political analysts. It was very interesting that a group
of IDPs who could benefit from this proposal rejected it
out-of-hand, and said nothing about the proposed referendum
on the future status of N-K, the issue believed to be a
redline for most Azerbaijanis. This group of IDPs reflects
the sloganeering that continues to dominate most Azerbaijani
public debates on the N-K issue: rigid adherence to
principles with little cost-benefit analysis of the GOAJ's
negotiating position.
HYLAND