IDP COMMUNITY SPEAKS OUT ON N-K NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001279 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL PBTS PHUM KDEM AM AJ SUBJECT: IDP COMMUNITY SPEAKS OUT ON N-K NEGOTIATIONS REF: A. BAKU 1164 ¶B. BAKU 1232 ¶C. BAKU 1021 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JASON P. HYLAND PER 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 24, Poloff met with an IDP community that lives in abandoned train cars just outside the southern Azerbaijani city of Imishli. Although one man insisted that the only way to settle the N-K conflict is through war, most members of the community remain hopeful that a peaceful solution can be achieved. Many of the IDPs with whom Poloff spoke said that they follow the news and are aware of the negotiation process. Of the Minsk Group framework agreement's core principles, the biggest concern for this community is the proposed return of just five of the seven occupied territories; they view the occupied territories as a whole that should not be separated. They also expressed keen interest in returning to their homes in Zangilan, one of the seven occupied territories. The community is supportive of the GOAJ's efforts in the negotiations process, and believes that President Aliyev will follow through with his commitment to eliminate all tent camps in Azerbaijan by the end of the year. Many of the IDPs expressed frustration that their Member of Parliament, Imanverdi Ismayilov - from the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party - has not visited the settlement once in the ten years he has been in office. END SUMMARY HOPE FOR A PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Approximately 100 IDP families - roughly 500 to 600 people - live in abandoned train cars just minutes from the center of Azerbaijan's southern city of Imishli. Many members of this community are children, spanning all ages, virtually all of whom are able to attend school nearby at a facility designated for IDP and refugee children. The settlement has occasional running water and electricity, although both are in short supply during the hottest summer months. In an August 24 discussion with Poloff, approximately 20 members of the IDP community expressed their hope that a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be reached. The women particularly emphasized that "no one wants to go to war again," but several of the men added that they "would not hide" if there were to be a war. Only one man was adamant in his opinion that a peaceful solution is not possible. Above all, their primary concern was to return to their homes in Zangilan, located in the southwest corner of the occupied territories, bordering Armenia and Iran. MINSK GROUP NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) Most of the IDPs with whom Poloff talked were well aware of the OSCE Minsk Group negotiation process. One woman explained that a few members of the community own televisions, and that when the electricity works, everyone follows the news closely. The entire community disagreed with the proposed plan, articulated in the Minsk Group core principles, to return five of the seven territories currently occupied by Armenian forces. One man argued that the occupied territories have to be viewed together, and that it is not possible to separate them. Many said that regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, Armenia will not withdraw its forces. One woman accused Armenia of setting fire to the occupied territories, and asserted that this signifies that Armenia is not serious in attempting to reach a peaceful settlement. SUPPORT FROM THE GOAJ -------------- ¶4. (C) Virtually all of the IDPs with whom Poloff spoke strongly support the Aliyev administration's efforts in the negotiation process. Furthermore, most are confident that President Aliyev will follow through with his promise to eliminate all tent camps in Azerbaijan by the end of the year. Aside from these broader initiatives, most of the community expressed frustration that the GOAJ cut subsidies that they had been receiving. In addition, a few of the IDPs said that documents proving they had served in the military - and necessary to receive veteran's benefits - had been confiscated by local officials and never returned. Many of the elderly members of the community receive pensions, but say that this is not enough to provide basic necessities. Out of the money that they do receive, one woman explained to Poloff, most is spent on medication for the children, whose health is poor because of their living conditions. ¶5. (C) Several of the IDPs mentioned that Deputy Prime Minister Ali Hasanov, Chairman of the State Commission on BAKU 00001279 002 OF 002 IDPs and Refugees, had recently visited the settlement, but they expressed frustration with the lack of support from their ruling party MP, Imanverdi Ismayilov. One woman told Poloff that over the years, many members of the international community have visited the settlement, but Ismayilov - having completed two five-year terms and currently serving his third - has not visited once. She said that prior to the November 2005 Parliamentary Elections, several members of the community had attended one of Ismayilov's campaign events and asked why he had not visited. According to this woman, Ismayilov had responded that he did not need to visit the settlement because he would be re-elected whether or not the IDP community voted for him. (Note: Azerbaijan's refugee and IDP communities vote in separate constituencies, based on the regions from which they fled. As a result, their constituencies are scattered throughout Azerbaijan.) COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The criticism of the Minsk Group's proposal that Armenia withdraw its troops from five of the seven territories echoes comments previously made by GOAJ officials and political analysts. It was very interesting that a group of IDPs who could benefit from this proposal rejected it out-of-hand, and said nothing about the proposed referendum on the future status of N-K, the issue believed to be a redline for most Azerbaijanis. This group of IDPs reflects the sloganeering that continues to dominate most Azerbaijani public debates on the N-K issue: rigid adherence to principles with little cost-benefit analysis of the GOAJ's negotiating position. HYLAND