AZERBAIJAN: RAISING THE ECONOMIC DIALOGUE AND PARTNERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001176 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR A/S FRIED, DAS BRYZA DEPT FOR E/MORRISON AND EB A/S SULLIVAN; PLEASE PASS TO USTR NSC FOR MATT PALMER AND FARYAN SHIRZAD TREASURY FOR NANCY LEE AND JEFF BAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016 TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EAID AJ IR RU SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: RAISING THE ECONOMIC DIALOGUE AND PARTNERSHIP REF: ISTANBUL 1296 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jason P. Hyland per 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (U) This is an action request - see paragraph 12. ¶2. (C) It is strongly in the U.S. interest of securing Azerbaijan as a reliable regional and global partner on critical U.S. interests, including security, energy and human rights, to support economic reform as an essential part of our broader goal of encouraging Azerbaijan's development as a modern democracy. The U.S. needs to vigorously strengthen the hand of the economic reformers in their efforts to combat corruption and foster governmental transparency, accountability and rule of law, to develop a clearly articulated budget process and macroeconomic policy targeted at developing a diversified economic base and preventing over-reliance on petroleum revenues. If Azerbaijan's weak economic governance is not addressed, there is a serious risk that the enormous inflow of oil and gas revenues beginning now will fuel inflation, corruption, uneven economic development and political/social frustration and instability. ¶3. (C) In order to effect economic change in Azerbaijan, the U.S. needs to raise the level of U.S.-Azerbaijan economic dialogue to a higher level, bringing it on par with the U.S.-Azerbaijan political, military and security relationship. President Aliyev's visit to the U.S. laid the foundation for a strengthening of the overall U.S.-Azerbaijan bilateral relationship. Notably, President Aliyev recently completely reshaped his economic team, adding Economic Development Minister Heydar Babayev in October, and in recent months appointing Samir Sharifov as Finance Minister and Shahmar Movsumov as Executive Director of the State Oil Fund. This new economic team is reform-minded and has the confidence and ear of the President. At recent meetings with EB A/S Sullivan, DAS Bryza and Ambassador Derse, both the President and Finance Minister agreed that raising the level of our economic dialogue would further stability (reftel). ¶4. (SBU) The completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, to be shortly followed by the South Caucasus Pipeline in October, signals the beginning of massive inflows of oil revenue into an unprepared economy. Lacking the necessary economic reform process over the past five years to prepare its economic for the flow of petrodollars, the Government of Azerbaijan urgently needs to undertake serious macroeconomic, institutional, legal and regulatory reforms before economic harm, which could lead to political instability, occurs. The United States needs to be active and engage at senior levels to impress upon Azerbaijan the necessity of undertaking reform now. ¶5. (SBU) Five years ago, Azerbaijan should have begun the reforms necessary to prepare its economy for a tsunami of energy revenue, a Kazakhstan had done before petrodollars hit itseconomy. Today, the contrast between Kazakhstanand Azerbaijan is stark. Many U.S. multinational institutions, such as Citibank, operate in Kazakhtan and one single bank in Kazakhstan has more assets than the total assets in Azerbaijan's bankin system. The economic imbalances and corruptionthat exist in Azerbaijan threaten its sustainable economic development and put at risk the proper management of its oil wealth resources, as well as its long-term political stability. ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP COMMISSION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) After discussions among Ambassador Derse, EUR DAS Bryza and EB A/S Sullivan in Istanbul on the fringes of the BTC events, the idea of a high-level Economic Partnership Commission was proposed to President Aliyev and Finance Minister Sharifov, who welcomed (reftel) the creation of an Assistant Secretary-Minister level U.S.-Azerbaijan Economic Partnership Commission. The objective of this permanent group would be to raise the bilateral economic dialogue and partnership following President Aliyev's visit to the U.S.; provide a policy forum to encourage broad economic reform and liberalization; offer an appropriately high-level forum to ensure that mismanagement of Azerbaijan's economy and oil wealth does not lead to political and social instability; and expand U.S. commercial opportunities in Azerbaijan. The U.S. will seek Azerbaijan's commitment to true economic reform and progress towards joining the World Trade Organization as a new tool of reform. Increasing public transparency and accountability anti-corruption efforts and energy would be a major focus of the discussions, as would engagement with the U.S. and Azerbaijan private sector and strengthened commercial diplomacy and commercial ties. ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP COMMISSION FORMAT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The U.S.-Azerbaijan Economic Partnership Commission would be an annual or twice yearly event alternating between Washington and Baku depending on the urgency of the issues and agreement between the two governments. Individual sector working groups would meet regularly during the year to discuss specific topics, such as WTO accession. The hosting government would be responsible for developing the commission's agenda with appropriate consultations with the other government. The existing Joint Economic Task Force, with a new focus on assistance burden-sharing and tying our assistance efforts closely to our policy efforts, would become an Assistance Task Force under the EPC. ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP COMMISSION PARTICIPANTS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Embassy Baku greatly appreciates Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs Daniel Sullivan's willingness to chair the EPC (reftel). The Minister of Finance would chair for Azerbaijan with appropriate participation, possibly co-chairmanship with Minister of Economic Development. Senior-level representatives from relevant economic departments, ministries and agencies would also attend the annual economic commission meetings. Proposed U.S. departments and agencies include the Department of State (EUR and EB lead),the Department of Treasury, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the Export-Import Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. For the GOAJ, Ministry of Finance (lead),the Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Justice, the State Oil Company, the State Oil Fund, the State Customs Committee, the National Bank of Azerbaijan, and State Copyright Agency. EXISTING TASK FORCE MEETINGS -------------- ¶9. (C) The U.S. and Azerbaijan currently participate in the biannual Joint Economic Task Force assistance meetings led by EUR/ACE. The Task Force's work in managing our assistance relationship remains critical and we propose that it become the Assistance Task Force, under the umbrella of the Economic Partnership Commission, focused on shifting and transforming U.S. bilateral assistance away from direct assistance to tiered "burden-sharing" technical assistance, ensuring our assistance efforts are closely coordinated, and support our economic policy and reform goals. As Finance Minister Sharifov told Ambassador July 11 and confirmed again in Istanbul July 12, Azerbaijan is prepared to work with the USG to move towards "burden sharing" on assistance as Kazakhstan has done. ¶10. (C) We see the EUR/ACE-led Assistance Task Force as essential to managing the process of moving toward burden-sharing. We envision the USAID mission in Baku taking the lead in the preparations for the assistance-focused Joint Economic Task Force meetings in Baku. PROPOSED AGENDA ITEMS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Embassy Baku understands that during Ambassador Derse's consultations in Washington, it was agreed that EUR and EB would take the lead working with other agencies to develop a draft agenda for a fall launching of the EPC. Embassy Baku believes that the U.S.-Azerbaijan Economic Partnership Commission agenda items should include revenue management, fiscal and monetary policy, economic reform and transparency, U.S.-Azerbaijan commercial relations, combating corruption, transparency, WTO accession, institutional, regulatory and legal reform initiatives, and Azerbaijan's transition from aid recipient to international donor, as well as commercial opportunities. We would plan to include a private sector roundtable with USG and GOAJ officially on the occasion of the first EPC meeting. ACTION REQUEST -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Again, Embassy Baku is appreciative of A/S Sullivan's willingness to head the economic policy reform and liberalization dialogue with Azerbaijan, relayed to Ambassador Derse in Istanbul, and requests that Washington agencies review Embassy Baku's proposal for structuring the U.S.-Azerbaijan Economic Partnership Commission and provide comments and concurrence, a proposed draft and agenda for a fall launch of the EPC, and proposed dates for the launch. We are ready to provide additional information and discuss additional ideas on how best to shape the commission into a useful and dynamic forum for U.S.-Azerbaijan economic dialogue. HYLAND