ALLAWI OBJECTS TO PROPOSED POLITICAL BODY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000922

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI OBJECTS TO PROPOSED POLITICAL BODY FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD,
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Iraqiyya List (Allawi) member, former
Planning Minister, and current Council of
Representatives (CoR) member Dr. Mehdi al-Hafedh told
PolOffs March 20 that the composition and powers of
the "Political Committee for National Security" (PCNS)
are not settled. He said that Iraqiyya and Tawaffaq
disagreed with a Kurdish compromise proposal on March

19. Iraqiyya and Tawaffuq want ex officio
representation from senior officials and party bloc
leaders, whereas the Shia Coalition wants
representation based on the number of seats in the
CoR. Iraqiyya and Tawaffuq want the PBNS to bind the
President and Prime Minister. The Kurds and the Shia
Coalition want the PCNS to make recommendations, but
not to be able to overrule the Prime Minister, the
President, or the CoR. Hafedh said that the Iraqiyya
List was willing to become an opposition party over
this issue, but this may have been a negotiating
position. Hafedh also told PolOffs that Ayad Allawi
was not yet participating in the National Salvation
Front but diplomatically professed ignorance whether
Allawi would join the Front after it was announced, as
many assume he will. Hafedh described a Shia
Coalition proposal to distribute posts in the new
government by a point system. Government formation
negotiations will resume on Saturday, March 25. End
Summary.

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Political Committee for National Security
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2. (C) Council of Representatives (CoR) member, former
Planning Minister, Iraqiyya List (Allawi) member, and
senior Iraqiyya negotiator Dr. Mehdi al-Hafedh told
PolOffs on March 20 that the composition and powers of
the "Political Committee for National Security" (PCNS,
Al-Hay'a al-Seeassa l'il-Amn al-Watani) are not
settled, despite what was said by senior Iraqi
officials at a press conference after the March 19
negotiating session. He said what was announced in
the March 19 press conference was a comprise proposal
presented by the Kurds, but that it was not acceptable
to Iraqiyya or to Tawafuq. (He gave no description of
Salih Mutlak's Hiwar Front position.) He said the
Kurds presented their compromise proposal because they
considered the Shia Coalition to be intractable in
their opposition to the National Security Council
proposal agreed to at Salahadin.


3. (C) Hafedh handed PolOffs a copy of Iraqiyya's
proposal for the PCNS, which he said they had
distributed to the negotiating parties that morning.
He added that there are two main areas of disagreement
between the Iraqiyya and the Kurdish proposals:

-- Composition - The Iraqiyya proposal calls for the
PCNS members to be ex officio the President, the Prime
Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, their
deputies, the KRG President, and the leaders of the
five major blocs in Parliament, for a total of 15
people. (Note: Assuming there is a relatively even
split within the blocs of the top jobs, this would
mean four Islamist Shia, five Kurds, and six
Sunnis/secular Shia. On a two-thirds voting system,
the Kurds and the Sunnis/secular Shia could outvote
the Islamist Shia. No wonder this formula is
unacceptable to the Shia Coalition. End note.) The
Shia Coalition's position is to make membership
proportional to the seats in the CoR. Thus, nine
reserved for the Islamist Shia, four for the Kurds,
three for Tawafuq, two for Iraqiyya, and one for the
Hiwar Front. Each bloc would have to decide who
filled its membership slots.

-- Powers - The Iraqiyya proposal says the decisions
of the PCNS should be binding on the executive branch
organs (Presidency and Prime Minister). The Kurdish
compromise proposal calls for the Committee's
recommendations on issues within the powers of the
President be brought before the Presidency Council,
and decisions within the powers of the Prime Minister
or the Council of Ministers be brought to the Prime
Minister or Council of Ministers for approval.


4. (C) Hafedh described the Shia Coalition as
categorically opposed to the formation of the PCNS

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because of constitutional concerns, because they
wanted any body to reflect the size of each group in
Parliament, and because they wanted the body to just
be advisory. To this, Hafedh said the PCNS could be
created by legislation. He tried to suggest that any
questions of legality were invalid since the NSC could
be considered a political agreement for one term only
and therefore not require a constitutional amendment.
He ended by saying the current situation requires
extraordinary measures to address the country's
problems.


5. (C) Hafedh told PolOffs that the Iraqiyya
leadership confirmed its position at a meeting earlier
on March 20, and that it was firm. When asked what
the Iraqiyya List would do if its version of the PCNS
was not adopted, Hafedh replied that they would become
an opposition party.

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Other Government Formation News and Views
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6. (C) Hafedh also told PolOffs that Ayad Allawi was
not yet participating in the National Salvation Front,
but diplomatically professed ignorance whether Allawi
would join the Front after it was announced, as many
assume he will.


7. (C) Hafedh offered his personal opinion that the
creation of the PCNS would create problems within the
Shia Coalition. Dawa and the Sadrists would oppose
it, and SCIRI and others might support it. He said
questions remain concerning SCIRI's intentions and the
role of Iran in the government formation process.


8. (C) Hafedh also described a Shia Coalition proposal
to distribute posts in the new government by a point
system (similar to the way posts were allocated within
the Shia Coalition). In this system, the following
points are assigned:
-- Prime Minister = 5 points;
-- President and Speaker = 4 points each;
-- DPMs, Deputy Presidents, and Sovereign Ministries =
3 points each;
-- Deputy Speakers and Service Ministries = 2 points
each; and
-- "Political" Ministries = 1 point each.


9. (C) Hafedh said that the Shia Coalition told
Iraqiyya they would get 3-4 points for their 25 seats
in the Parliament. (Note: Coincidentally, not enough
for the PM slot. End note.) The approach has a
problem, however, he said. If the Iraqiyya list has
25 seats (1/11th of 275 seats) and was assigned 4
points, then the total number of points would be about
4 x 11 = 44. The total number of points to allocate
all ministries exceeds 44 points. He planned to
clarify the system, but indicated he did not think it
a particularly useful one. PolOffs said, and Hafedh
quickly agreed, that parties should not treat
ministries as spoils to be bought at auction. He took
particular note of PolOff's observation that recent
conversations with political figures close to PM
Jafari hinted that the Oil, Finance, Interior and
Defense ministries ought to be considered apolitical
and assigned to technocrats (septel).


10. (C) Hafedh said discussions on the PCNS, the
government platform, and the Council of Ministers
bylaws will continue on March 23. Discussion of the
next Prime Minister might begin at that session.

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Comment
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11. (C) While Allawi has been ill in the past few
days, Hafedh has moved into position as Ayad Allawi's
chief negotiator. The formidable Hafedh will have his
work cut out for him on Saturday. The Iraqiyya
proposal for membership in the PCNS is clearly
unacceptable in its present form, and we do not sense
the outcome will go Iraqiyya's way. The threat to
stay out of the government is likely a bluff. Too
many senior members of Iraqiyya want the party to be
in the government, not outside it. We believe
Iraqiyya would fracture if Allawi tried to keep it
outside the government. The relatively abstract
principles of the PCNS would not be an obstacle if

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Allawi is able to negotiate the position of Deputy
Prime Minister for the national security portfolio.
Either the PCNS will emerge close to the Kurdish
formulation or the subject will be shelved until
later. Bylaws and government platform talks will take
some time at Saturday's session. Because of the Shia
Arbay'een and Kurdish Now Ruz holidays, politicking
has slowed somewhat the past few days. End comment.
KHALILZAD