DAWA HARDLINER INSISTS DEEP-SEATED FEAR OF FORMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000911 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PNAT PINR IZ SUBJECT: DAWA HARDLINER INSISTS DEEP-SEATED FEAR OF FORMER REGIME DRIVES SHIA POLITICS Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In a March 15 meeting with PolOffs, re- elected Dawa Council of Representative (CoR) member Kamal Abdullah Khallawi al-Saidi expressed only guarded support for Prime Minister Jafari to remain as PM, admitting that Jafari is not the most competent politician. He doubted anyone else could do better. Al-Saidi suggested the Shia's deep-seated fear of the Baathists' return to power drives all Shia political decisions. While he agreed the continued presence of Coalition Forces is useful now, he distinguished between Sunni and Shia armed groups that target only CF and "terror" groups that hit CF and civilians alike. Al-Saidi claims that USG policy decisions are fueling that fear and warned that we need to alter our course. He also asked for USG's support for anti- corruption efforts. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Jafari: Not the Most Competent, But Who Could Do Better? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Al-Saidi told PolOffs that the opposition to the nomination of PM Jafari was not due to his personality. He acknowledged that Jafari is not the most competent and that there are more competent people in the Shia Coalition. However, he cautioned that anyone else would face the same problems because of the complex political and security problems. He said, if the situation remains the same, neither Jafari nor anyone else would succeed. -------------- Fear of Saddamists Return -------------- ¶3. (C) Al-Saidi said the U.S. media portrays the Shia as trying to dominate everything in Iraq, but he added that the Shia know this strategy would sabotage the entire process. Instead, he insisted that the Shia's deep-seated fear of the previous regime's return to power drives all Shia politics. He explained that this fear never dissipates for anyone who has suffered at the hands of the Saddamists. The Shia believe that the Saddamists are hoping to return to power, and if they do, the Shia expect to suffer even more. He cautioned that when dealing with the Shia this must be taken into account. He explained that the political process in Iraq is not about sectarian divisions but bitter memories and visceral fear. Al-Saidi himself alluded to the fact they he has an inherent distrust of Sunni Arabs. Al-Saidi conjectured if the Sunni Arabs could ever manage to reassure the Shia that they could control the violence and make sure none of the Saddamists return, the Shia would even accept a Sunni Prime Minister. For now, he stated, the average Shia perceives that all Sunni Arabs are Baathists and terrorists. -------------- Resistance vs. Terrorism -------------- ¶4. (C) Al-Saidi told PolOffs that some Sunni Arabs are trustworthy and have no links with terrorists, but some are politicians during the day and terrorists at night. He said the Shia would be able to reach out to, and reach agreement with, Sunni Arabs not linked to terrorists. Al- Saidi then differentiated between the resistance and terrorists by saying that those who attack just Coalition Forces are resistance (inferring that those who attack Iraqi Security Forces are terrorists). PolOff impressed upon al-Saidi that the Ambassador has been crystal clear to Sunni Arab leaders that they can no longer have one foot in politics and one foot in the resistance. ¶5. (C) Al-Saidi said the Shia believe in the political process and are thankful to the Coalition for liberation. They want to build the democratic process and the economy. He stated that when the political process is stabilized, the Coalition Forces will be asked to leave. He cited the example of Germany and Japan taking advantage of occupation to modernize. -------------- How the U.S. fuels Shia fear -------------- ¶6. (C) Al-Saidi used the saying "do good and throw in the sea" as an analogy to describe the current relationship between the Shia and the U.S. A man saves a drowning BAGHDAD 00000911 002 OF 003 person (doing his good deed),but then throws him back into the sea. He said the U.S. liberated the Shia, but now its losses are becoming unjustified. Al-Saidi commented that the average Shia no longer understands USG motives in Iraq for the following reasons and that we must act to decrease suspicions: - Following the national elections, the U.S. allegedly ignored the Shia and only reached out to the Sunnis. He exclaimed that this only increased the Shia's level of fear for the return of the Ba'athists. - The USG controls the Iraqi intelligence services. He exclaimed that it is a totally non-transparent government entity that has all the same personnel (former Ba'athists) who tortured Shia during the Saddam regime. - "Big" Sunni criminals allegedly remain in sensitive high- level positions in both the defense and interior ministries. - The USG supposedly has worked to circumvent the constitution to establish a National Security Council with executive authority. He said there is no objection to a council with consultative functions, but accountability will be lost if powers are divided between the Presidency, Prime Minister, and the CoR Speaker. PolOff countered that USG policy is to help establish a national unity government with competent players. - The Ambassador's recent comments about withdrawing support if a sectarian government is established, allegedly signaled to the terrorists to attack the Shia. - The USG is afraid of some Islamist factions, but does not understand that Iraqi Islamists do not want Iraqi government to be a shadow of Iran. Instead, he said, "We want freedom and democracy." -------------- Sadrists Point of View -------------- ¶7. (C) While acknowledging that the Shia have fears about the Sadrists, Al-Saidi attempted to explain why the Sadrists do not like the U.S. He believes that the Sadrists have political, rather than ideological, differences with the U.S. Sadrists blame the U.S. for the last three years of Iraqi hardship. As a Shia Coalition Dawa member, Al-Saidi claimed to remind Sadrists that the U.S. liberated Iraq, removed Saddam, and provided freedom for the Iraqis. But Sadrists claim that the ever-dwindling lack of services, high unemployment, and plundering by international companies is how the U.S. is destabilizing Iraq and prolonging the occupation. PolOff reiterated that the US does not want to stay any longer than they have to. -------------- Anti-Corruption Efforts Being Hindered -------------- ¶8. (C) Al-Saidi cited former IIG Minister of Defense Hazim Sha'alan's treatment as a political refugee in Kurdistan as an example of the political chaos in Iraq. If these people can break the laws of government, he asked, how will this government work, he wondered. He said he would be the first person to expose corruption in the Jafari government and claimed that his committee had presented 400 files to the Commission on Public Integrity and the courts. He added that in a democracy, there is free press and institutions that can expose anybody. He then said the U.S. Embassy can help by not allowing the anti-corruption process to be disabled or stopped. PolOff responded that the USG supports anti-corruption efforts, but not for political ends. -------------- Reconstruction Gap in the South -------------- ¶9. (C) Al-Saidi asked why the USG was not developing secure areas in the south (especially if western areas were hotbeds). If this happened, he added that Iraqis would feel like progress was being made. PolOff responded that the USG had undertaken many reconstruction projects in the south - citing specifically the Khor al-Zubair electricy project and the rehabilitation of the Umm Qasr port. PolOff promised to provide a list of projects in the south, but emphasized that the U.S. (and other donors) could not BAGHDAD 00000911 003 OF 003 entirely fund Iraq's infrastructure requirements and that private investment is necessary to bridge the gap. Al- Saidi said, if political and security situation stabilized, then it is necessary to concentrate on the economy, adding that the U.S. should rebuild just the electricity and oil infrastructure. -------------- Danish Cartoons -------------- ¶10. (C) Regarding the recent Danish publication of cartoons depicting Mohammed, al-Saidi commented that the Danes are honest, peaceful and respectful people. Having spent 14 years of his life in Denmark, al-Saidi said he understands the meaning of freedom of the press - but most Muslims in the Middle East do not understand that the press in Denmark is not controlled by the government. He said that the Muslim community handled this poorly. The violent reaction delivered the wrong message to the Danish people. Al-Saidi said the appropriate response would have been for the Muslim community to accept the Danes' apology and start a dialogue. Instead, Muslim extremists exploited this opportunity for political reasons. ¶11. (C) BIONOTE: Kamal Abdullah Khallawi al-Saidi was born in Maysan in 1956 (not 1952, as is reported on his official ID). Al-Saidi attended a technical high school and then studied Islamic philosophy. In 1979, he joined the Dawa party, not because of its Islamic roots, but because it was the the main opposition party fighting against Saddam. Al- Saidi fled to Denmark in 1989 where he received refugee status and lived for 14 years before returning to Iraq. His family remains in Denmark. He was elected to the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) in January 2005 and served as the Deputy Chairman of the TNA Integrity Committee. In the December 2005 elections, he was fourth on the Shia Coalition's Misan list and won a CoR seat. SATTERFIELD