ALLAWI ALLY THINKS SHIA ISLAMISTS' INFLUENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000910

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI ALLY THINKS SHIA ISLAMISTS' INFLUENCE
WANING IN THE SOUTH - SEES POSSIBLE OPENINGS


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Southern Iraq secular politician and
Allawi camp member Wa'el Abd al-Lateef told us March 13
that the Shia will have to make a choice about the kind of
federalism they want in the South. He thought giving each
governorate authorities like the Kurdish region already
enjoys would help calm Sunni Arab fears. Abd al-Lateef
thinks that Shia Islamist party SCIRI is reeling after
Ibrahim Jafari bested the SCIRI candidate for prime
minister. Abd al-Lateef thinks the Islamists' influence is
starting to wane in the South and if their internal
divisions extend into this year's provincial elections the
secular opposition could have new openings. While we are
dubious that the Islamists' influence has yet crested in
southern Iraq, it is interesting that secular politicos
like Abd al-Lateef remain hopeful. END SUMMARY.

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Federalism: How to Manage
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2. (C) Former Iraqi Governing Council member, and current
Council of Representatives (CoR) and Iraqi National List
member Judge Wa'el Abd al-Lateef al-Fadhel (from Basrah)
told PolOffs March 13 that he believes federalism will be
part of the constitutional review process. He supports
amending constitutional provisions, particularly regarding
regions' identity and distribution of revenues from natural
resources. He said that during the constitution drafting
phase he had proposed making each governorate a federal
region to ease Sunni Arab fears of a single big southern
federal region. He asserted that making each governorate
like the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) would calm the
Sunni Arabs. He said the Shia now have three options
regarding federalism:

- the one-governorate approach - each governorate is its
own federal region;

- the three governorates or fewer approach - no more than
three governorates can form a federal region; and

- the nine-governorate approach supported by SCIRI's Abd
al-Aziz al-Hakim, where all of the nine southern Shia
governorates form one federal region.


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Shia Religious Parties Dominance Fading
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3. (C) Abd al-Lateef told PolOffs that Shia religious
parties became strong in 2004 and that they had had no
influence previously. He claimed that they gained power
when they were united by SCIRI's Abd al-Aziz Al-Hakim in
the hope that he would become President. He said the
nomination of PM Jafari over Deputy President and SCIRI
official Adil Abd al-Mehdi had dealt a knockout to al-
Hakim. He stated that the Shia Coalition is weakened.


4. (C) Abd al-Lateef said the strongest party in Basrah was
Fadhila. He added that, despite weapons, money, and
support from Iran, the religious parties' power is starting
to diminish, as Basrah residents want change. He said the
religious parties received support from ministries in
Baghdad (buildings, vehicles, etc.) when they became part
of the government. He said Basrah residents are fed up
because of the corruption. He claimed the Shia militias in
Basrah also receive major support from Iran.

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Provincial Elections: Support Secular Nationalists
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5 (C) Abd al-Lateef told PolOffs that he thought provincial
elections would be held in June and that he is personally
meeting with people in Basrah and Hillah to "save my people
from the religious trend." He added that he is doing this
on his own and that provincial elections have not been
discussed within Allawi's Iraqi National List group.
(COMMENT: Previous conversations with Ayad Allawi's Chief
of Staff Thair al-Nakib and National Accord Secretary
General Ibrahim al-Janabi indicate that the Iraqi National
List has begun planning for provincial elections. END
COMMENT). He anticipated that if the Shia Coalition enters
the provincial elections as a unified list, it will repeat
its electoral success. He thinks, however, that cracks in

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the Shia Coalition will prevent it from running as a
unified list. Instead, the component parties will run as
individual, relatively small entities. He urged the U.S.
and international community to support national forces
against religious forces. He specifically requested
assistance to (a) unite secular national figures; (b)
undertake a media and propaganda effort to make these
figures known; and (c) provide financial resources during
the elections.

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Comment
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6. (C) Comment. Notwithstanding Judge Abd al-Lateef's
prediction, we have not heard whether the Islamist Shia
parties will run together in provincial elections or not.
The real power struggle in provincial elections could
indeed come between elements of the Shia Islamist
Coalition, especially competition between SCIRI/Badr, Dawa,
Sadr/Jaysh al-Mahdi, and Fadhila. Much depends on what
happens in government formation talks in Baghdad, and
whether any rifts from that experience are healed or
widened in subsequent months. In the December elections in
southern Iraq, secularists kept a foothold in Basrah and
Diwaniyah. Abd al-Lateef is hoping Shia Islamist divisions
will give secularists a new opening. We have doubts that
the Shia Islamists' influence in cities like Basrah has
crested; they still look by far the strongest of the
political pack. Fadhila may have lost some of its good
name through mismanagement in Basrah, but its militia,
often operating under police cover, give it plenty of
muscle. That said, it is interesting that Shia politicos
like Abd al-Lateef remain hopeful. End comment.
SATTERFIELD