FM ZEBARI: SHIA FAR FROM DECISION ON PM CANDIDATE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000079 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV PNAT PREL IR IZ KRG SUBJECT: FM ZEBARI: SHIA FAR FROM DECISION ON PM CANDIDATE, NEW GOVERNMENT FORMATION ALSO DISTANT REF: BAGHDAD 05 4975 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., David M. Satterfield for reason s 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Ambassador on January 9 that the Kurdish Alliance has reached agreement on supporting Talabani for President in the new Iraqi government. The Shia UIA alliance is, in his view, deeply divided over whether to support current PM Ja'afari or current Deputy President Mahdi for the PM slot, with Ja'afari currently in the lead. It will take some time to resolve this impasse with the decision resting on the views of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Intelligence Corps Chief Soleimani and Grand Ayatollah Sistani. Per Zebari, negotiations on the rest of the government will begin in earnest only after the PM candidate is chosen. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Foreign Minister and top Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) official Hoshyar Zebari told the Ambassador January 9 that the Kurds have gone through a very difficult internal process of negotiating the government positions to be sought by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the KDP. Each of the other political alliances (the Shia UIA, the Sunni Arab Tuwaffuq, and Allawi's moderate group),according to Zebari, also will have to make internal decisions before government formation can begin. Zebari stated that the Kurds have decided they will support Jalal Talabani again for president of Iraq while Masoud Barzani will remain president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The region, he noted, will have one Prime Minister. With Talabani as President, Zebari stated, the KDP will expect to get the bulk of any ministerial slots allocated to the Kurds in the Iraqi government. ¶3. (C) Zebari said that Talabani has dropped his opposition to Ibrahim Ja'afari continuing as prime minister. This follows a visit from Ja'afari, who, according to Zebari, is doing a much better job of lobbying for the PM position than Deputy PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi. However, Zebari stated, a repeat of Ja'afari in the PM role is a red flag for SCIRI's Abdul Aziz Hakim, who views Ja'afari's tenure as a failure. Zebari added that Hakim would like to reach agreement on the UIA PM nomination -- which the UIA views as its right because it won the most votes in the election -- before it comes to an internal vote. Zebari opined that Ja'afari would win if an internal UIA vote on the position was conducted at this moment. Given internal UIA disagreements, Zebari said he doubts there will be a quick agreement on the composition of the new government. Zebari believes that ultimately Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence chief Soleimani and Sistani will decide the UIA PM nominee. Sistani's influential son, Mohammed Ridha, supports Ja'afari, with whom, according to Zebari, he has some type of family relation. Zebari recommended that the Ambassador not weigh in at this point except perhaps to outline the qualities that the USG would like to see in a prime minister. ¶4. (C) Zebari cautioned against attempting to form a Sunni Arab-Kurd-Allawi block to negotiate with the Shia. Doing so, he said, would cause the UIA to dig in its heels. Rather, Zebari explained, the Sunni Arabs, along with the other political groups, must form a small negotiating team to negotiate after the Shia PM nominee is decided. The Sunni Arab-Kurd-Allawi bloc, he stated, can be formed later in the Council of Representatives to oppose UIA initiatives there. Allawi must be kept in the country and engaged in the process, Zebari added. However, Zebari noted, Allawi is a difficult man to control and now is the center of gravity in the election rejectionist camp. Only the U.S. can influence Allawi, Zebari commented. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador and Zebari discussed the rumors of a possible Shia Sadr-Da'wa and Sunni Arab Tawaffuq nationalist Arab bloc being formed, isolating the pro-Iranian SCIRI and the Kurds. Such a bloc could get the backing of the Arab countries, Zebari stated. Saudi Arabia, Zebari added, views Sadr as a counterweight to both Iranian and U.S. influence in Iraq. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Talabani's much-documented problem of trying to be "all things to all people" appears again with his recent declaration of reconciliation with Ja'afari, despite his long-standing support for Mahdi's candidacy. Last week the Embassy heard that Talabani again declared his support for Mahdi as being the most qualified candidate. We continue to monitor Iran's continuing attempts to influence the Kurds through their shuttle diplomacy between Irbil and Sulaimaniyah; they appear to have had more open success in influencing Talabani (see reftel). END COMMENT. KHALILZAD