JAFARI PM NOMINATION STILL UNCERTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000749 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINS PNAT KDEM IZ SUBJECT: JAFARI PM NOMINATION STILL UNCERTAIN Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: There is no consensus yet on the fate of Ibrahim Jafari's PM nomination, with the Shia Coalition offering incentives for votes and Kurdish leaders threatening to withdraw from the government if a new nomination is not put forward. As of COB on Wednesday, we had conflicting reports on whether or not the Council of Representatives would meet on March 12 for a brief session. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Fadhila Party leader Nadeem al-Jabiri told Poloff March 8 that he believed pressure was steadily growing for Jafari to step aside. He said Allawi's emergence as a rival candidate might spur the Shia coalition to replace Jafari more quickly. ¶4. (C) By contrast Adnan Ali al-Kadhimy, a top political advisor to Prime Minister Jafari, told PolCouns March 8 that he was certain Jafari would remain as PM. Kadhimy said he was sure the Shia Coalition (List 555) would stay united. He predicted that the Shia Coalition would resist convening even an initial, pro-forma session of the parliament until there was an agreement about the main lines of the new government. PolCouns noted that events in Samarra showed the urgent need for a national unity government. Kadhimy agreed, and said the Americans should help by weighing in with the Kurds and Sunni Arabs. Kadhimy also urged the U.S. tell Talabani to keep his criticisms of Jafari out of the media. The trip to Turkey was a trifling and Talabani's reaction disproportionate. PolCouns encouraged Kadhimy to talk to Talabani staff to coordinate at that level and avoid the worst surprises. (NOTE: Kadhimy agreed but notably had to ask PolCouns again for the phone number of the President's top aide.) ¶5. (C) On March 8, Presidency Council Chief of Staff Kamran Karadaghi denied to us press reports that the Shia Coalition has presented the Kurdish Alliance with a letter responding to the request to reconsider Ibrahim Jafari's nomination for Prime Minister. Karadaghi explained that thus far the Shia refuse to consider alternate candidates. President Talabani planned to host another meeting with the leaders of all the political groups on the Prime Minister question on March 9. Karadaghi asserted that the Shia Coalition is offering incentives to accept Jafari - strict limitations on his authority, a two month trial period, etc. Karadaghi sniffed that these were not credible promises, implying that the Kurds remained firm in their opposition to Jafari. ¶6. (C) On March 8, KDP parliamentarian Fawzi Hariri told PolOff that KRG President Masud Barzani intimated to him that if Ibrahim Jafari remains the Prime Minister, KDP will withdraw from government. PolOff reminded Hariri that previously Barzani was in favor of Jafari over Deputy President Adil Abd al-Madhi for the Prime Minister. Hariri agreed but said that Barzani now considers Jafari an uncompromising incompetent who would rather see Iraq fall apart than to give up his nomination. ¶7. (C) Comment: Some of our political contacts commented today about the March 7 Jafari press conference as a clear indication that Jafari will not back down. There are stories in the press of small demonstrations in southern cities like Najaf and Basra supporting the incumbent PM. (We see no sign of big Sadr demonstrations for Jafari yet, but this could change.) Jafari ultimately is depending on the Shia Coalition's unity, supposedly backed by the Najaf clerics, to outlast his opposition. KHALILZAD