FADHILA LEADER JABIRI SAYS JAFARI,S CANDIDACY IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000732

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: FADHILA LEADER JABIRI SAYS JAFARI,S CANDIDACY IS
UNRAVELING


Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Fadhila Party leader Nadeem al-Jabiri told
the Ambassador March 6 that Ibrahim al-Jafari's candidacy is
unraveling inside the Shia Coalition. The Marja'iya, Jabiri
said, have sent strong signals that Jafari should step aside,
and Muqtada al-Sadr's supporters are backing away from
Jafari. Jabiri lamented that Jafari believes that he has
been "mandated by God" to lead the country and that Jafari
may be the hardest to convince of the need to step aside.
Jabiri urged the Ambassador to be patient as pressure builds
on Jafari. If there is no movement in the near future,
Jabiri predicted, the emergence of Ayad Allawi as an
alternative candidate might prod the Shia Coalition into
action. Jabiri said he expects discussions about alternative
candidates to increase in the coming days. Jabiri clearly
sees his own name near the top of the list for PM. In a
March 7 meeting, SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim told the
Ambassador that he is concerned that Kurdish leaders are
sending mixed signals and leaving some Shia Coalition members
with the impression that the Kurds may be willing to accept
Jafari's nomination. END SUMMARY.

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Support Diminishing For Jafari Within Shia Coalition
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2. (C) Jabiri told the Ambassador March 6 that the Shia
Coalition has held two internal sessions since the Kurds,
Allawi, and Tawafuq rejected Ibrahim al-Jafari's nomination.
Jabiri said that the first session saw an angry backlash from
the Da'wa and Da'wa Tanzim al-Iraq parties but surprising
silence from Muqtada al-Sadr allies and the independent bloc.
By the second session, held March 5, the Sadrists remained
silent and even one member of Da'wa Tanzim al-Iraq (National
Security Minister Abd al-Kareem al-Anzi) had defected from
Jafari's camp. Muqtada al-Sadr's followers are concerned
most that Adel Abd al-Mehdi not claim the nomination in the
event that Jafari is sidelined, Jabiri said. Jabiri added
that, in a recent meeting with Jafari and his aides in Najaf,
he understood that the Marja'iya sent a veiled message that
Jafari should step aside.


3. (C) NOTE: In a March 7 meeting, SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz
al-Hakim told the Ambassador that he is concerned that
Kurdish leaders are sending mixed signals and leaving some
Shia Coalition members with the impression that the Kurds may
be willing to accept Jafari's nomination. END NOTE.

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Jafari's Delusions of Grandeur
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4. (C) Jabiri said he fears that the only real obstacle to
putting forward a new candidate will be Jafari himself.
Jafari is still clinging to his position, Jabiri said, and
his aides do not appear to be accepting the rising tide of
protest swelling around them. Jabiri said he has attempted
to broach the subject of stepping down in a private meeting
with Jafari but found Jafari totally unwilling to discuss the
issue. Jabiri said that Jafari describes himself as
"mandated by God and the Ummah (Muslim nation)" to lead Iraq
-- self-aggrandizement that Jabiri said is chillingly
"Saddamist."

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Jabiri Still Sees Himself as Compromise Candidate
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5. (C) Jabiri clearly sees himself as the likely compromise
candidate in the event that Jafari is pushed aside. He said
that even the Muqtada al-Sadr group (his chief rivals for the
Sadrist legacy) are now angling to form an alliance with him.
Jabiri said that Muqtada al-Sadr supporters confronted him
in the earlier phases of the prime ministerial race and
threatened to slander him and expose his authorship of an
article praising Saddam Hussein. Jabiri said he rejected the
threat and told them, "Go ahead." Now that Sadr's supporters
have seen that he does not bow to such threats, Jabiri said,
the Sadr faction is ready to find ways to work with him.
(COMMENT: A smear campaign was launched against Jabiri but
does not appear to have significantly dented his position in
the Shia coalition -- perhaps because so many members have
blemished records after 35 years of Ba'athist rule. END
COMMENT.)
KHALILZAD