PST BAGHDAD: IRANIAN INFLUENCE ON BAGHDAD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000730

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA-I/POL AND NEA-I/ECON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID IZ IR
SUBJECT: PST BAGHDAD: IRANIAN INFLUENCE ON BAGHDAD
PROVINCIAL POLITICS


1. SUMMARY: Iranian influence on Baghdad provincial
politics is increasing. Recent visits by the chairman
of the Baghdad Provincial Council to Iran, as well as
the past visits by rank and file members of the
Provincial Council, point to the possibility that
Iranian interests are establishing solid roots within
the Baghdad Provincial Government. Iranian overtures
and interaction with the Provincial Council are likely
an effort to build economic market share in the
largest city in Iraq and build a significant degree of
influence over key provincial leaders. The Iranian
government likely views the leadership of Baghdad
province, like that of the national government, as
important to long-term Iranian interests in the
region. END SUMMARY.


2. Over the past six months, Iranian interests have
made substantial inroads toward developing a
relationship with the Provincial Council. The
following examples provide evidence that there is
growing Iranian influence on the Baghdad provincial
government.


3. In late summer 2005 and again in fall 2005,
members of the PC traveled to Iran at the invitation
of the Iranian government to observe how Iranian
cities about the size of Baghdad govern and to build
rapport with the counterparts in Tehran.


4. Also in late summer 2005, members of the Iranian
mission in Baghdad visited the PC at least once to
hold meetings with council members. The ostensible
reasons for the meetings were to discuss items of
mutual benefit and to extend invitations for both
Iraqi representatives and Iranian representatives to
travel to each other countries to forge closer ties.


5. According to several local political officials,
including PC Deputy Chairman Mohan Al-Saidi, the
Iranian embassy observes the PC and is aware of past
and current activities of the council. He
characterizes the Iranian embassy's knowledge of PC
operation as significant. (The Iranian Diplomatic
mission is one block south of the Provincial Council
on Haifa Street. This allows for ease of access by
Iranian officials to the PC.)


6. In early February 2006, PC Chairman Mueen Hameed
traveled to Iran with an Amanat (city hall) Baghdad
delegation to forge closer ties with the Amanat
Tehran, seek economic and development assistance from
the Iranian government, and negotiate a potential loan
from Iran to bolster local reconstruction efforts.
Since then, at least one Iranian construction company
that specializes in water/sewage projects seems to
have successfully entered the Baghdad reconstruction
and development arena. According to Chairman Mueen, a
number of other Iranian companies are interested in
doing business in Baghdad.

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COMMENT
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7. COMMENT: Politics at the Baghdad Provincial
Council are driven largely by its SCIRI/Badr bloc. At
the national level, SCIRI/Badr has significant and
historic ties to Iranian government interests and
private entities. We are confident that Iran will
likely maintain contacts with the provincial SCIRI
leadership in the same way it does with the national
SCIRI leadership. Personal affairs may also affect
the views of PC members. A number of PC/governorate
members, including the PC chairman and the governor,
spent much time in exile in Iran before the fall of
the Saddam Hussein regime and may have extensive
personal interests in Iran. Moreover, a number of PC
members have family residing in Iran.


8. COMMENT, CONT'D: Iranian overtures and interaction
with the PC are likely an effort to build economic
market share in the largest city in Iraq and build a
significant degree of influence over key provincial
leaders. There are no overt indications, however,
that Iranian interests are attempting to co-opt PC
leadership or its members for anti-American activities
or other overt nefarious activity.

BAGHDAD 00000730 002 OF 002




9. COMMENT CONT'D: The Iranian government likely
views the leadership of Baghdad province, like that of
the national government, as important to long-term
Iranian interests in the region. Baghdad, the largest
and most populated province in Iraq, is the key to
economic development, stability, and decision making
for the country. Iran is positioning itself on
multiple tiers to exert influence in Baghdad and Iraqi
decision making.


10. COMMENT CONT'D: Discussing Iranian overtures and
inroads with provincial officials can be a sensitive
matter. Most of them are reluctant, and in at least
one case afraid, to openly discuss the interactions
some members of the council have had with Iranian
interests. PC Chairman Mueen Hameed seems to be one
exception. When asked about his interaction with
Iranian interests, while not always detailed, he
willingly discusses his efforts. We attribute his
openness to what he considers open knowledge that he
lived several years in Iran in exile.


11. COMMENT CONT'D: After 25 years of little access
to Iraq due to conflict and animosity, Iran is taking
advantage of the current unstable environment to
cement its economic interests and influence. This
trend will likely continue since it is not evident why
Iranian interests might become less active in Baghdad
in the months ahead. END COMMENT.

KHALILZAD