Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAGHDAD707
2006-03-06 12:35:00
SECRET
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

MIXED SUPPORT FOR JAFARI WITHIN SHIA COALITION AS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9104
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHGB #0707/01 0651235
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 061235Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3100
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000707 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2026
TAGS: PGOV PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: MIXED SUPPORT FOR JAFARI WITHIN SHIA COALITION AS
KURDS AND SUNNI ARABS READY A COMMON BLOC


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000707

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2026
TAGS: PGOV PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: MIXED SUPPORT FOR JAFARI WITHIN SHIA COALITION AS
KURDS AND SUNNI ARABS READY A COMMON BLOC


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The rejection of Shia Prime
Minister nominee Ibrahim Jafari by the Kurds, Sunni
Arab Tawafuq bloc and the secular Allawi bloc has
generated at least initial tough responses from the
Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555). There are also
hints of flexibility about dumping Jafari. TNA
Deputy Speaker Shahristani told us March 6 that the
Kurds and the Sunni Arabs making their objections
public strengthened List 555 solidarity behind the
PM as their nominee to head the new government.
Shahristani predicted that Shia Coalition member
parties SCRI and Fadhila would not break ranks over
the Jafari nomination lest the parties draw sharp
criticism from the Shia religious leaders in Najaf.
Coalition member and head of Dawa Tanzim Khudayr Al-
Khuzai told PolOff March 5 that rejection of Jafari
as PM would be a "humiliation" for all Shia. Khuzai
said that if the Presidency calls the Council of
Representatives into session while the Kurds,
Tawafuq and Allawi list still reject Jafari, List
555 members would boycott the legislature. At a
March 5 meeting, Shia Coalition independent Khalid
Attiyah called the letters from the Kurds, Sunni
Arabs and Allawi rejecting Jafari's nomination as
"insulting", but understandable. Attiyah said that
while he initially preferred Adil Abd al-Mahdi for
the PM nomination, the Deputy President is now
"damaged goods" due to his defeat by Jafari in the
555 nomination contest. On March 5 and 6, Tawafuq
members Ayad al-Samara'i and Ala' Mekki told Poloff
that the Sunni Arab coalition would soon meet with
the Kurdish Alliance to work out differences over
the program for the proposed National Salvation
Front. We expect some intense politicking, but no
big decisions, over the next couple of days. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
SHAHRISTANI: COALITION BACKING JAFARI
--------------


2. (C) Hussayn Shahristani, one of the seven
members of the executive committee of the Shia
Islamist Coalition (List 555) told us March 6 that
List 555 was standing behind Jafari as its prime
minister choice; its leadership reiterated this

support in a March 5 meeting. He acknowledged that
Jafari was not an ideal choice; Coalition member
parties SCIRI and Fadhila were not happy with
Jafari. He commented, however, that the Kurds and
Sunni Arab Tawaffuq Front should have made their
objections to Jafari known privately only. Now that
they have made their opposition public, he claimed,
the Shia would rally around Jafari. The Najaf
religious leaders want the Shia Coalition to stay
united. Thus, he predicted, if SCIRI or Fadhila
breaks ranks over Jafari Najaf would criticize them
sharply. Shahristani did not rule out changing
Jafari for another candidate, but a change would
have to be by consensus among the Coalition. He
warned that many in the South perceive that the
Kurds and Sunni Arabs, in league with the Americans,
are trying to impose conditions on the Shia
Coalition. PolCouns said that the next PM would be
the government leader for all Iraqis, not just Shia.
The PM was not a choice solely for List 555 to make,
just as we expect that the Shia Coalition will have
something to say about Sunni Arabs and Kurds brought
into the cabinet. Shahristani did not argue the
point but returned to what he called the provocative
tactic of sending letters objecting to Jafari.


3. (C) Changing Jafari, if it happens, would also
take some time, said Shahristani. He bitterly
criticized the Tawaffuq leadership for being out of
the country and thus being unable to negotiate with
the Shia Coalition. Shahristani said that the
Coalition was seeking a meeting March 6 with the
Kurdish Alliance and Tawaffuq leadership in order to
convince them not to call the parliament later this
week. Shahristani noted that there is no agreement
on the government coalition arrangement. The Shia
prefer, therefore, that it not be held.

--------------
DAWA TANZIM FIRM FOR JAFARI
--------------

BAGHDAD 00000707 002 OF 003




4. (S) Dawa Tanzim leader Dr. Khudayr Musa al-
Khuza'i told us March 5 that Dawa and Dawa Tanzim
officials met March 3 with KDP leader Massoud
Barzani to discuss PM Jafari's recent trip to
Turkey. According to Dr. al-Khuza'i, the List 555
officials told Barzani that the trip to Turkey was
to strengthen bilateral relations, that the Kurds
had been invited, and that there was no secret
message - no sane politician would meet the enemy of
his allies. Barzani reportedly promised to resolve
the Kurdish ire against Jafari, a process that al-
Khuza'i thought could take days. (Comment: we
doubt that Barzani was sincere making such a promise
even if he did say such a thing. End Comment.)


5. (C) When asked about the letters from the Kurdish
Alliance, Tawafuq, and the National Iraqi list to
List 555 and SCIRI leader Abdulaziz al-Hakim
opposing the nomination of Jafari, Dr. al-Khuza'i
rejected interference from any party the Shia
Coalition's affairs. He added that a Jafari
withdrawal would be humiliating for the Shia
Coalition and the Shia as a whole.


6. (C) Dr. al-Khuza'i added that there are
spontaneous reactions in the street, with rallies
supporting Jafari's nomination and signs stating
that Iraq is an Arab country and needs an Arab
President (a swipe at Jalal Talabani, a Kurd). He
also said the Shia public believes that the U.S. has
been plotting with the Kurds. He stated that the
U.S. should intervene with the Kurds to convince
them to accept Jafari. He said the U.S. is sending
the wrong message to the insurgents and terrorists.


7. (C) When asked what will happen if the Kurds,
Tawafuq, and the National Iraqi List continue to
refuse support for Jafari's nomination, Dr. al-
Khuza'i said the situation will remain as is, with
the ITG governing under the TAL. When told that the
Presidency Council may call the Council of
Representatives (CoR) into session by the end of
this week, he said nobody in the Shia Coalition
would respond to the call. PolOff reminded him that
Abd al-Mahdi is on the Presidency Council. He
stated that, if some part of the Shia Coalition
attends the opening session, it would mean the
dissolution of the Coalition and end to united Shia
participation in government.

--------------
SCIRI OPEN TO DUMPING JAFARI
--------------


8. (C) In a March 5 meeting with Poloffs, prominent
SCIRI member Redha Jawad Taki confirmed SCIRI's
openness to alternatives to Jafari for PM. Taki
explained SCIRI hopes that Jafari will voluntarily
relinquish the nomination once he loses Sadrist
support. Taki said that while SCIRI would prefer to
see Abd al-Mahdi become PM, Abd al-Madhi has would
only accept the PM nomination if the Shia Coalition
unanimously endorsed him. Taki added that Qassim
Daoud, Jawad al-Maliki and Hussein al-Shahristani
could be likely PM candidates. Taki doubted that
Fadilah leader Nadim al-Jabiri would have another
chance because he has little support from within the
Coalition.

--------------
SHIA INDEPENDENT ACCEPTING A CHANGE TOO
--------------


9. (C) Shia Coalition Independent and Council of
Representatives (CoR) member Shaikh Khalid Abathar
Attiyah on March 5 admitted to us that Jafari's PM
nomination was a mistake. He explained that it was
wrong for the Coalition to move forward with his
nomination, knowing that Ja'fari was a "hard sell"
to all parties inside and outside the Coalition.
Attiyah considered the three letters sent by outside
parties to Abdul Aziz al-Hakim rejecting Jafari's
nomination as insulting, but understandable. Attiyah
added that the problem is one the List 555 group
must fix; others should stay out of internal
Coalition issues.


10. (C) Attiyah said it is clear that Najaf
marja'iya wants the Shia Coalition to remain

BAGHDAD 00000707 003 OF 003


unified. He added that there are two options: (1)
convince other parties to accept Jafari and see what
terms they offer; or (2) convince Jafari to
voluntarily step down. He opined that Ayatollah
SISTANI himself could convince Jafari. Attiyah said
Grand Ayatollah SISTANI and his son Mohammed Ridha
probably are willing to influence political events
indirectly. Attiyah added that Sadrists are
reasonable and could be flexible about conceding on
Jafari.


11. (C) If Jafari were to relinquish the PM
nomination, Attiyah lamented that List 555 would be
unlikely to re-nominate SCIRI's Adil Abd al-Mahdi
whom he called "damaged goods." Attiyah said his
second choice would be TNA Deputy Speaker Hussein
al-Shahristani. Attiyah indicated that both Qassim
Daoud and Nadim al-Jabiri lack support within the
Coalition, but he opined that Shahristani was
amenable to all groups, is a good administrator and
has experience.

--------------
SUNNI'S TRADE VIEWS WITH KURDS
--------------


12. (C) Tawaffuq Front and Iraqi Islamic Party
(IIP) leader Tariq al-Hashimi told a press
conference in Amman March 4 that Tawafuq would not
accept Jafari as PM. He also said Tawafuq is
discussing with the Kurdish Alliance and the Allawi
National List creating a broader political front.
IIP leader Ayad al-Samarai'e told Poloff March 5
that Tawafuq has written to the Kurdish leadership
saying that it had issues with the draft national
front program it had received from the Kurds and
Allawi. On March 6, Ala' Mekki, also of IIP, told
Poloff that Tawafuq plans to meet with the Kurds in
the next several days to agree on a front program.
Mekki stressed that IIP leader Tariq al-Hashimi's
public comments March 4 on government formation
reflect the views of all the Tawafuq parties.
Meanwhile, Iraqi Front for National Dialogue leader
Saleh Mutlaq told Poloff March 6 from South Africa
that he had not joined the Tawafuq leaders in
signing the letter opposing Jafari. Mutlak said
that he does not support Jafari. However, he wants
a clear strategy from the Kurds about ministerial
appointments. When asked his preference for Prime
Minister, Mutlak said he would support former PM
Allawi or a similarly liberal, non-sectarian
candidate.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) The initial umbrage among Shia politicians
like Shahristani and Khuza'i about the Kurdish and
Sunni Arab opposition to the Shia candidate Jafari
is predictable. We expect some quiet and intense
discussions about Jafari's future within the
Coalition, and pulling in the Najaf clerics, during
the days ahead. We do not expect a rapid decision
from the Shia. The Sunni Arab leadership's absence
from Iraq (they are visiting states in the region)
suggests that the national front they are discussing
with the Kurds also will take at least some days to
put together. Since the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs
disagree on many national political issues, drawing
up an agreed front program could be harder than just
expressing opposition to Ibrahim Jafari.
KHALILZAD