POLITICAL UPDATE: SHAWAYS DOUBTS NON-SHIA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000569

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2026
TAGS: IZ PGOV
SUBJECT: POLITICAL UPDATE: SHAWAYS DOUBTS NON-SHIA
ALLIANCE PM POSSIBLE; SHIA ISLAMISTS CHAFE AT USG CALLS
FOR CROSS-SECTARIANISM

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (S) Summary. The Kurds together with the Sunni
Arab bloc and Ayad Allawi's group are writing up a
program that they can present as a national salvation
front program. They aim to attract Shia Islamists
who will split from Prime Minister Jafari. Deputy
Prime Minister Shaways told PolOffs February 22 that
the Shia Coalition's refusal to include Ayad Allawi is
the biggest obstacle to forming the new government.
He doubted it would be possible for any candidate
outside the Shia Coalition to become PM, noting
SISTANI's insistence on Shia Coalition unity. Shia
independent Qassim Daoud asserted to PolOff on
February 22 that any attempt to nominate a Prime
Minister outside of the Shia Coalition would be the
basis for a Shia uprising in Iraq. He did not think
loyalty to Jafari was deep, however. Allawi ally Saad
al-Janabi told us February 21 that Allawi and Sunni
Arab leaders agreed on February 20 to open a dialogue
with Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim and other Shia leaders.
Adil Abd al-Mahdi told the Ambassador February 22 that
the Shia Coalition had a good meeting with Sunni Arab
Tawaffuq representatives. The Ambassador's remarks at
a February 20 press conference drew criticism from
many Shia Coalition members while others praised his
statements, saying that the Iraqi street agreed with
him.


2. (C) Summary Continued. President Talabani will
host a midday meeting February 23 with senior
political leaders to discuss how to contain the impact
of the bombing of the Shrine of the 10th and 11th
Imams in Samarra. In response to a reporter's
question about whether the Samarra bombing will affect
the political dialogue, Abdulaziz Al-Hakim answered,
"Dialogues are meant to continue," but later added
that "we cannot continue our dialogue in a normal
manner while we suffer from this calamity." End
Summary.

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DRAWING UP A SALVATION FRONT PROGRAM
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3. (S) On February 21 and February 22 there were
more rounds of meetings about government formation.
The Kurdish/Allawi/Sunni Arab group met to begin
developing the principles from the meeting a month in
Kurdistan into a broader government program. This
program would be introduced be the Kurds as the basis
of a "National Salvation Front" to which the Shia
would be invited to join. There was another, quieter
meeting February 21 between Kurdish PUKer Barham Saleh
and SCIRI's Adil Abd al-Mahdi aimed at developing a
government program to which SCIRI could adhere with
the Kurdish-Allawi-Sunni Arab group. It also began
discussing the choreography by which SCIRI would drop
its support for the Shia Coalition's official prime
minister nominee, Ibrahim Jafari. They are reviewing
names for Prime Minister such as Qassim Daoud and
Finance Minister Ali Allawi. They will develop a
longer list of names in the coming days. They have
told the Ambassador that they will widen the
discussions to include Ibrahim al-Janabi (Allawi
aide),Azet Berwari from the KDP, and a representative
of the Sunni Arab Islamic Party

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DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SHAWAYS: SHIA COALITION REFUSAL
TO ACCEPT ALLAWI PRIMARY OBSTACLE TO FORMING GOVT.
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4. (C) On February 22, Kurdish Deputy Prime Minister
Rowsh Shaways told PolOffs that the primary obstacle
to forming a national unity government is the ongoing
refusal of the entire Shia Coalition to accept former
Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and his National Iraqi List
as part of the new government. Given Ayatollah
SISTANI's instructions to both SCIRI's Abd al-Aziz al-
Hakim and Prime Minister-elect Ibrahim al-Jafari to
maintain the unity of the Shia Coalition, Shaways
doubted that it would be possible to field an
alternate candidate - such as Allawi - for Prime
Minister. Should Jafari fail to assemble a government
within the thirty-day period specified by the
Constitution, however, the Shia would be allowed to
select a new candidate. Shaways stated that the
candidate must come from within the Shia Coalition and

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ruled out SCIRI's Adil Abd al-Mahdi, noting that he
would be considered too controversial. Shaways added
that the sectarian violence over the Al-Askaria Mosque
bombing in Samarra on February 22 would only make
government formation more difficult. Iraq, he opined,
had begun its slide toward civil war. He confided
that he was not sure SISTANI could control the Shia
street much longer.

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SHIA INDEPENDENT QASSIM DAOUD: PM CANDIDATE OUTSIDE
SHIA COALITION IMPOSSIBLE
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5. (C) Shia independent Qassim Daoud also informed
PolOff on February 22 that any attempt to nominate a
Prime Minister outside of the Shia Coalition would
provide the basis for a Shia uprising in Iraq. He had
also heard rumors that an alternate candidate might be
nominated if Prime Minister-elect Jafari failed to
convene a government in time. He expressed bitterness
at the result of the internal Shia vote on February
12, stating that deciding a nomination by a margin of
one vote "is not democracy." Daoud sympathized with
the difficulties of working in a Jafari government
again after the experiences of this past year. He
firmly maintained, however, that only the Shia had the
right to select the Prime Minister. As long as the
alternate candidate came from within the Shia
Coalition, however, Daoud indicated that no one would
fight to keep Jafari.

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SUNNI ARAB LEADERS TO REACH OUT TO SHIA PARTIES
-------------- --


6. (C) Allawi ally Saad al-Janabi told Poloff February
21 that Allawi hosted a lunch for Sunni Arab leaders
on February 20 at which the group decided to open a
dialogue with Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim and other Shia
leaders. Present were Saleh Mutlak from the Hewar
National Dialogue, Khalaf al-Ayyan and Abd al-Nasser
al-Janabi from the National Dialogue Council, and Ayad
al-Samarrai from the Iraqi Islamic Party. Following
the luncheon, Mutlak, who has been elusive in
declaring his allegiance to any political block, made
a public statement that he (and his coalition) is a
member of the Sunni Arab and Allawi negotiating group.
Separately, SCIRI's Abd al-Mahdi told the Ambassador
February 22 that the Shia Coalition had had a good
meeting with the Tawaffuq Front on February 21.

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RESPONSE TO AMBASSADOR'S FEBRUARY 20 PRESS CONFERENCE
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7. (C) SCIRI Chief of Staff Haitham al-Husseini
complained to Poloff February 21 about the
Ambassador's remarks to the press indicating that the
USG might withhold assistance from a new sectarian
government. Husseini said that such comments make
Iraq look like it has no sovereignty and is a US
puppet. According to February 21 press reports, Shia
Islamist Abbas al-Bayyati said that the Ambassador's
expression of opposition to sectarian Defense and
Interior Ministers reflected an international role
that is "important, effective and significant" but
that should be dealt with based on Iraqi national
interests. When PolOff argued the importance of
establishing a unity government, al-Husseini said he
understood its importance and agreed with SCIRI leader
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's comments that everyone needs to
be included. But he explained that these press
statements make al-Hakim's job harder to convince his
Shia base that working closely with the Americans is a
good thing.


8. (C) In a February 21 meeting with Poloffs, re-
elected Council of Representatives (CoR) member Shia
Coalition Independent Zakia Ismail Haqqi told PolOffs
that she was "dismayed" to read the Ambassador's
public statements in support of a national unity
government. She alleged that the USG effort ran
contrary to a U.S.-Iraqi relationship based on trust
and equality. She said that, while Iraqis are
grateful for liberating them from Saddam, the
Ambassador's statement made her sad because it shows
"he disrespects our democracy and is too much in our
affairs". She also strongly disagreed with efforts to

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include Dr. Ayad Allawi in the new government,
claiming he is a corrupted Baathist. In the Shia
Coalition vote on the PM nomination, Haqqi proudly
said that she voted for Ibrahim Jafari because of his
efforts to fight corruption. She said that during
Jafari's tenure, the Commission for Public Integrity
brought forward 450 corruption cases for prosecution
that included cases against seven ministers.


9. (C) Upon hearing about the bombing of the Shrine of
the 10th and 11th Imams in Samarra CoR members Jinan
Jasim al-Ubaidi and Muna Noor Zalzala al-Ubaidi and
Zalzala queried PolOffs as to why the Ambassador
continues to push for Sunni inclusion when they are
responsible for all the violence. Poloffs responded
by saying that inclusion of all groups is important,
and that working towards a more stable government is a
process that requires time.


10. (C) TNA Legal Committee Chairman Muhsin Saadoun
(Kurdish Alliance) told PolOffs February 21 that he
agreed with the Ambassador's statements, saying the
Ambassador had the right to threaten cuts in support
since the political parties are talking without caring
for the national interests. New Council of
Representatives member Abd al-Lateed Abd al-Wahab al-
Bedri (National Iraqi List) told PolOff February 22
that the Ambassador's press conference was
"excellent," adding that the street (including the
Shia) agrees with him.

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SADRIST UPBEAT THAT DEAL ACHIEVABLE
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11. (C) Leading Sadrist Baha al-Araji told PolOff
February 22 that "today was a good day for government
formation" because the Sadrists and PM Jafari called
for calm, and this was largely eventually achieved.
Al-Araji will represent the Sadrists at the February
23 lunch with President Talabani. He said he hopes to
build on today's success at quelling the violence
after the Samarra mosque bombing.
KHALILZAD