HAKIM LOOKING TO UNSEAT JAFARI WITHOUT BREAKING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000507

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2026
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: HAKIM LOOKING TO UNSEAT JAFARI WITHOUT BREAKING
SHIA COALITION


Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (S) SUMMARY: SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim told the
Ambassador February 17 that he wanted to work to block
Ibrahim al-Jafari's nomination without breaking the Shia
coalition. Hakim said he had met with Ayatollah SISTANI in
Najaf February 16 and found that SISTANI was unhappy with
Jafari's re-election and rising Sadrist influence but unsure
about how to respond. Hakim said that SCIRI is ready to work
with groups outside the Shia coalition to reach consensus on
a government program structure and the top officials in a
future cabinet. Once such an agreement is reached, Hakim
suggested that the Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Allawi forge a
larger bloc and tell the Shia coalition that their nominee is
unacceptable, forcing Jafari to step down rather than face
the embarrassment of rejection in parliament. The Ambassador
warned Hakim that other groups might not go along with this
if it is merely a maneuver to revive Adel Abd al-Mahdi's
candidacy. Hakim said he would be ready to look for an
independent Shia candidate all sides could find acceptable.
END SUMMARY.

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Hakim Considers the Alternatives
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2. (S) SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim told the Ambassador
February 17 that he wanted to work to block Ibrahim
al-Jafari's nomination without breaking the Shia coalition.
Hakim ruled out Husayn al-Shahristani as a prime minister and
also ruled out Nadeem al-Jabiri. Hakim said Jabiri's
nomination would only add insult to injury to the followers
of Muqtada al-Sadr, all of whom would be reeling from
Jafari's fall and consider the Fadhila Party a bitter rival.
Hakim also said Jabiri was just as disorganized as Jafari.
The Ambassador warned that Allawi and Barzani will not
cooperate with an effort to simply shake up Jafari's
nomination without knowing who might come next. They fear
they could wind up with a worse candidate. Hakim said all
sides would need to look for a Shia candidate among the
independents or outside the coalition entirely. Hakim said
the search for such a candidate and for figures for each of
the top government posts should be the work of a special
committee including representatives from the Kurds, Sunni
Arabs, and Allawi's list.

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Opening a Second Track
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3. (S) Hakim called for a second track of talks to attempt to
forge a national compact that would guide the next cabinet.
That meant settling on a unified approach to the chief
challenges facing the next government, particularly on
security, ministerial programs, and the constitution. Adel
Abd al-Mahdi told the Ambassador February 16 that the Sunni
Arabs, Kurds, Allawi list and SCIRI ought to create, in one
form or another, a front that ties in their key leaders,
including Barzani, Talabani, Hakim, Allawi and perhaps Tariq
al-Hashimi of the Iraqi Islamic Party. This group could
hammer out the key compromises and perhaps serve as a nucleus
for a national security council down the line.

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COMMENT: Voting as a Bloc
Without Forming One
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4. (S) In Hakim's vision, it may be possible to form a
National Salvation Front without formally breaking the Shia
coalition. This would require backroom deals and some
semantics but could be the more diplomatic approach. The key
leaders could reach an unannounced agreement on the
government but still stand at loggerheads in public. Then,
just when things appear bleakest, they could bring forward
their pre-worked plan as a compromise and sell it inside
their respective blocs. Jafari could step down, perhaps
compensated with "leadership" of the still-standing but now
damaged Shia coalition, and a new candidate could emerge.
Iraq would have a National Salvation Government without a
National Salvation "bloc" -- the parliament would remain
divided on sectarian lines. The trick with this plan, of
course, remains managing the Sadrist backlash and finding
acceptable candidates.

5.(S) Hakim may not go far enough to pursue other candidates.
We will find out in additional discussions with them in the
coming days just how much each party is willing to push.
The Ambassador was also to meet with Allawi and Talabani

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February 17 and leaders across the spectrum February 18 to
push this process forward at a time when most of the leaders
are still wringing their hands.
KHALILZAD