Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BAGHDAD490
2006-02-16 13:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:
SADR CITY DAC MEMBERS PREDICT JA'FARI WIN WILL
how-toVZCZCXRO9661 PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS DE RUEHGB #0490 0471358 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 161358Z FEB 06 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2736 INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000490
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SADR CITY DAC MEMBERS PREDICT JA'FARI WIN WILL
BOOST SADRISTS IN SADR CITY
REF: BAGHDAD 262
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000490
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SADR CITY DAC MEMBERS PREDICT JA'FARI WIN WILL
BOOST SADRISTS IN SADR CITY
REF: BAGHDAD 262
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) Sadr City District Advisory Council (DAC) chair
Hassan Shama and Sadr City DAC member Dr. Haider Jabar
Ziden told PolOff in a February 13 meeting that Prime
Minister (PM) Ibrahim Ja'fari's renomination to the PM
post will likely boost Sadrist influence in Sadr City.
Ja'fari has thus far allowed the Sadrists to intimidate
their opponents and effectively control Sadr City. Now
that Ja'fari has the Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555)
nod, thanks in large part to Sadrist support, our
contacts predict the situation in Sadr City will only
worsen. The Sadrists, they predicted, would use
intimidation to win elections that are far from free and
fair. Our contacts opined that, if free elections were
to be held, about 50 percent of the DAC members would be
reelected. If the Sadrists are allowed to intimidate
candidates and voters as they have in the past (reftel),
then they will win perhaps as many as 30 of the 41 DAC
seats. With SCIRI, Dawa, and the Fadhila Party taking
the rest of the seats, there will be no room for
independent candidates such as himself.
2. (C) To combat this, Shama recommended reserving 25
percent of the DAC seats for women, with an additional 25
percent of the seats reserved for Sadr City minorities,
such as Kurds. This would prevent a complete takeover of
the DAC by the Sadrists, Shama argued. This is an
important goal, our contacts argued, because the DAC is
the only counterweight to the Sadrists in Sadr City.
MNF-I and the Iraqi Security Forces have thus far not
contained the Sadrists, our contacts lamented.
3. (C) Comment: The Shia Islamist and the Iraqi national
political leadership more broadly, are still trying to
understand just how influential the Sadr camp would be in
a new Jafari-led government. Down at the local level in
Sadr City, Hassan Shama is a well-known contact; his
opposition to the Sadrists is well-documented. His
concern that independent candidates will be squeezed out
by the established political parties is shared by many on
the DAC. While some DAC members have decided to join the
established political parties, others have not. We can
expect the Sadrists to resist any attempt in the national
assembly to reserve a fixed number of seats for women in
provincial or local elections; many Islamists are not
comfortable with such quotas for women. End Comment.
KHALILZAD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PNAT KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SADR CITY DAC MEMBERS PREDICT JA'FARI WIN WILL
BOOST SADRISTS IN SADR CITY
REF: BAGHDAD 262
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) Sadr City District Advisory Council (DAC) chair
Hassan Shama and Sadr City DAC member Dr. Haider Jabar
Ziden told PolOff in a February 13 meeting that Prime
Minister (PM) Ibrahim Ja'fari's renomination to the PM
post will likely boost Sadrist influence in Sadr City.
Ja'fari has thus far allowed the Sadrists to intimidate
their opponents and effectively control Sadr City. Now
that Ja'fari has the Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555)
nod, thanks in large part to Sadrist support, our
contacts predict the situation in Sadr City will only
worsen. The Sadrists, they predicted, would use
intimidation to win elections that are far from free and
fair. Our contacts opined that, if free elections were
to be held, about 50 percent of the DAC members would be
reelected. If the Sadrists are allowed to intimidate
candidates and voters as they have in the past (reftel),
then they will win perhaps as many as 30 of the 41 DAC
seats. With SCIRI, Dawa, and the Fadhila Party taking
the rest of the seats, there will be no room for
independent candidates such as himself.
2. (C) To combat this, Shama recommended reserving 25
percent of the DAC seats for women, with an additional 25
percent of the seats reserved for Sadr City minorities,
such as Kurds. This would prevent a complete takeover of
the DAC by the Sadrists, Shama argued. This is an
important goal, our contacts argued, because the DAC is
the only counterweight to the Sadrists in Sadr City.
MNF-I and the Iraqi Security Forces have thus far not
contained the Sadrists, our contacts lamented.
3. (C) Comment: The Shia Islamist and the Iraqi national
political leadership more broadly, are still trying to
understand just how influential the Sadr camp would be in
a new Jafari-led government. Down at the local level in
Sadr City, Hassan Shama is a well-known contact; his
opposition to the Sadrists is well-documented. His
concern that independent candidates will be squeezed out
by the established political parties is shared by many on
the DAC. While some DAC members have decided to join the
established political parties, others have not. We can
expect the Sadrists to resist any attempt in the national
assembly to reserve a fixed number of seats for women in
provincial or local elections; many Islamists are not
comfortable with such quotas for women. End Comment.
KHALILZAD